I believe the price has nowhere to go but down and here's why I think so. - page 3.

smscotten

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Quote from: cheesylard on July 19, 2013, 07:25:27 PM

Quote from: 01BTC10 on July 19, 2013, 07:24:14 PM

I meet random people almost everyday and most of them have no idea what Bitcoin is.

Hm. Okay. It might have to do with the fact I live in the Silicon Valley, then. Almost everyone here knows what Bitcoin is

Might have something to do with the Bitcoin billboard on 880.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: Tzupy on July 20, 2013, 09:44:17 AM

I see a buildup up buy orders as I write this, but the price is kind of stationary yet.
There is one guy with a 1,000 BTC buy order, he places it then withdraws it, with no chance to really buy.
Now he firmly placed it at 91.8 where he should be able to buy.
At this moment, a 10k dump would drive the price down to 88. Juicy target...

which exchange are you looking at? Does this type of analysis have any meaning for longer term price movements?

Tzupy

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I see a buildup of buy orders as I write this, but the price is kind of stationary yet.
There is one guy with a 1,000 BTC buy order, he places it then withdraws it, with no chance to really buy.
Now he firmly placed it at 91.8 where he should be able to buy.
At this moment, a 10k dump would drive the price down to 88. Juicy target...
PS. this is on MtGox.
PS2. I am not interested in long term, I know that we are on the deflating side of a bubble.
But on short term, price can still go up, if someone really wants to buy now (for reasons I don't understand).

crumbs

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Quote from: Peter Lambert on July 20, 2013, 08:31:26 AM

Quote from: crumbs on July 20, 2013, 08:16:08 AM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on July 20, 2013, 07:54:19 AM

It doesn't matter what things cost in the past, just what they will cost in the future. Past performance does not gurantee future results.

Then why all the talk about Bitcoin's past performance? No one is arguing that investing in Bitcoin turned out well for people in the past. As you correctly pointed out, that doesn't begin to begin to imply that investing in Bitcoin is smart *now*.

If you make an estimate of what the future price of bitcoin will be, then it might still make sense to buy bitcoins. Saying "They went up 10x every year in the past" is not a valid argument. Saying "They will be about the current price later" makes them a valid savings instrument, saying "They will grow another 10x because of such and such reasoning" makes them a valid investment instrument.

Oh, in that case i agree. If you posit that the price will remain the same as fiat_of_choice, then Bitcoin is just as good as that fiat from investor's perspective, and if a sound case could be made for Bitcoin value rising relative fiat_of_choice, it is a valid investment instrument. Both pretty much by definition. I think i misinterpreted what you were trying to say.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Here is a reason for you of why it won't happen:
In order to reach those levels it would require so much money that the only people who could bring it there are those who ~~control~~benefit from the monetary system in the first place.
For Bitcoin the Winklevoss are the end of the road. Any more wealthy than that and they would stand more to lose than they can win.

Peter Lambert

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Activity: 756

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: crumbs on July 20, 2013, 08:16:08 AM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on July 20, 2013, 07:54:19 AM

It doesn't matter what things cost in the past, just what they will cost in the future. Past performance does not gurantee future results.

Then why all the talk about Bitcoin's past performance? No one is arguing that investing in Bitcoin turned out well for people in the past. As you correctly pointed out, that doesn't begin to begin to imply that investing in Bitcoin is smart *now*.

If you make an estimate of what the future price of bitcoin will be, then it might still make sense to buy bitcoins. Saying "They went up 10x every year in the past" is not a valid argument. Saying "They will be about the current price later" makes them a valid savings instrument, saying "They will grow another 10x because of such and such reasoning" makes them a valid investment instrument.

crumbs

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Quote from: Peter Lambert on July 20, 2013, 07:54:19 AM

It doesn't matter what things cost in the past, just what they will cost in the future. Past performance does not gurantee future results.

Then why all the talk about Bitcoin's past performance? No one is arguing that investing in Bitcoin turned out well for people in the past. As you correctly pointed out, that doesn't begin to begin to imply that investing in Bitcoin is smart *now*.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Peter Lambert on July 20, 2013, 07:54:19 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 19, 2013, 07:42:26 PM

We're out of suckers.

We don't need suckers, just people who understand the benefits of using bitcoins.

Those benefits are actually different than the Bitcoin gospel claims. And it has nothing to do with owning them, investing in them or anything by that matter.

Peter Lambert

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Activity: 756

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 19, 2013, 07:42:26 PM

We're out of suckers.

We don't need suckers, just people who understand the benefits of using bitcoins.

Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 20, 2013, 12:16:25 AM

Quote from: Melbustus on July 19, 2013, 11:42:54 PM

By the same token that your weak-minded friend was impressed that "a bitcoin" is "worth more than the dollar", we have idiots on CNBC saying things like "it's crazy that people are actually willing to pay $100 for just one of these bitcoin things". WTF!! Why can't people understand divisibility and percentages?

Don't be part of the problem!

Actually its more like why pay 100 Dollars for something that someone payed 1 Cent for three years ago?

Or worse why pay someone 100 Dollars for something that they bought for 1 Cent three years ago?
Of course that does only makes sense if you think there is someone who will pay you 10,000 Dollars in another three years.

Don't you be part of the problem.

It doesn't matter what things cost in the past, just what they will cost in the future. Past performance does not gurantee future results.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Inedible on July 20, 2013, 05:39:06 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 20, 2013, 12:16:25 AM

Quote from: Melbustus on July 19, 2013, 11:42:54 PM

By the same token that your weak-minded friend was impressed that "a bitcoin" is "worth more than the dollar", we have idiots on CNBC saying things like "it's crazy that people are actually willing to pay $100 for just one of these bitcoin things". WTF!! Why can't people understand divisibility and percentages?

Don't be part of the problem!

Actually its more like why pay 100 Dollars for something that someone payed 1 Cent for three years ago?

Or worse why pay someone 100 Dollars for something that they bought for 1 Cent three years ago?
Of course that does only makes sense if you think there is someone who will pay you 10,000 Dollars in another three years.

Don't you be part of the problem.

You're right - my aunt was telling me how houses used to cost around £3000 where she lived. These days the same ones are worth around £500,000.

I'll wait till houses go back down to £3000 before I buy again.

Thanks for the tip.

Are you seriously comparing inflation over decades resulting in 16 fold increase to the 3 years of Bitcoin evangelism resulting in a 1000 fold increase?

phoenix1

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Quote from: Inedible on July 20, 2013, 06:54:08 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on July 20, 2013, 06:51:34 AM

Quote from: Inedible on July 20, 2013, 05:39:06 AM

You're right - my aunt was telling me how houses used to cost around £3000 where she lived. These days the same ones are worth around £500,000.

I hope you told your aunt to mortgage her house and buy BTC. What could possibly go wrong Grin

No - I've told her to just wait until the price of Bitcoin goes back down to 1 cent.

Shouldn't be long now.

Lol

Inedible

hero member

Activity: 700

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What doesn't kill you only makes you sicker!

Quote from: phoenix1 on July 20, 2013, 06:51:34 AM

Quote from: Inedible on July 20, 2013, 05:39:06 AM

You're right - my aunt was telling me how houses used to cost around £3000 where she lived. These days the same ones are worth around £500,000.

I hope you told your aunt to mortgage her house and buy BTC. What could possibly go wrong Grin

No - I've told her to just wait until the price of Bitcoin goes back down to 1 cent.

Shouldn't be long now.

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Inedible on July 20, 2013, 05:39:06 AM

You're right - my aunt was telling me how houses used to cost around £3000 where she lived. These days the same ones are worth around £500,000.

I hope you told your aunt to mortgage her house and buy BTC. What could possibly go wrong Grin

Spider

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Of course it will go down. When all I see is people talking about buying Bitcoins, selling Bitcoins, getting rich...it'll only drain energy from this project. One should seek for ideas to use it the way it was designed for.

Inedible

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

What doesn't kill you only makes you sicker!

Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 20, 2013, 12:16:25 AM

Quote from: Melbustus on July 19, 2013, 11:42:54 PM

By the same token that your weak-minded friend was impressed that "a bitcoin" is "worth more than the dollar", we have idiots on CNBC saying things like "it's crazy that people are actually willing to pay $100 for just one of these bitcoin things". WTF!! Why can't people understand divisibility and percentages?

Don't be part of the problem!

Actually its more like why pay 100 Dollars for something that someone payed 1 Cent for three years ago?

Or worse why pay someone 100 Dollars for something that they bought for 1 Cent three years ago?
Of course that does only makes sense if you think there is someone who will pay you 10,000 Dollars in another three years.

Don't you be part of the problem.

You're right - my aunt was telling me how houses used to cost around £3000 where she lived. These days the same ones are worth around £500,000.

I'll wait till houses go back down to £3000 before I buy again.

Thanks for the tip.

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: Tzupy on July 20, 2013, 03:51:03 AM

During the last month, every time the volume was so low, the price trend was slowly downwards, ending with a significant drop.
Maybe this time it will be different, but I doubt that. So I placed my buy order at 80.xx and am waiting.

Did you remember to buy when it was 70 a couple of weeks ago?

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

During the last month, every time the volume was so low, the price trend was slowly downwards, ending with a significant drop.
Maybe this time it will be different, but I doubt that. So I placed my buy order at 80.xx and am waiting.

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: Melbustus on July 20, 2013, 12:57:11 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on July 20, 2013, 12:16:25 AM

Quote from: Melbustus on July 19, 2013, 11:42:54 PM

By the same token that your weak-minded friend was impressed that "a bitcoin" is "worth more than the dollar", we have idiots on CNBC saying things like "it's crazy that people are actually willing to pay $100 for just one of these bitcoin things". WTF!! Why can't people understand divisibility and percentages?

Don't be part of the problem!

Actually its more like why pay 100 Dollars for something that someone payed 1 Cent for three years ago?

Or worse why pay someone 100 Dollars for something that they bought for 1 Cent three years ago?
Of course that does only makes sense if you think there is someone who will pay you 10,000 Dollars in another three years.

Don't you be part of the problem.

You again... You do KNOW you're wrong or that your points are irrelevant, right? Just in it for the argument? If so, that's cool. We should all be able to defend our points in detail and you do help people with that.

BUT - I feel like I shouldn't have to say the following:
What someone paid for an asset previously doesn't matter. Do you begrudge early Google employees who were issued stock when the company's valuation was in the low millions? Now that Google is 20,000x bigger, does the fact that someone, at some point in the past, paid a tiny fraction of current valuation impact the value that the buyer/holder is getting currently in any way? No. This is basic stuff and you know it.

Except GOOG did rise 700% not 1,000,000%. Is that your defense?
Because isn't not even wrong, it doesn't even make sense. You better get used to the argument, because it will be there till the end. If that does make you angry go push that orange button! Wink

Coinseeker

sr. member

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Quote from: Anenome5 on July 20, 2013, 12:14:33 AM

Quote from: Coinseeker on July 19, 2013, 11:20:18 PM

Quote from: Anenome5 on July 19, 2013, 10:39:37 PM

Quote

Unless if western democracy collapses as we know it

I can only assume you haven't been paying attention Tongue

We are in the death-throes / birth-pangs now. Look at Europe. Look at the '08 crash. Crises will begin to hit with increasing frequency until what stability remains fails. The dollar losing reserve currency status will happen at one point and be the likely coup de grace, and China will probably engineer it.

When the dollar crashes you know what will happen? People will flee into hard assets, just like the people in Argentina are doing now.

And one of the most desirable hard assets at that point will be bitcoin.

Ever bought a house for one or a few bitcoin? There's a good chance you'll be able to do so within your lifetime if the US face fiscal crisis of dollar-crashing magnitude.

Absolutely delusional. Please...exit all blogs, back away from the computer and go outside and get some sun. Roll Eyes

This is what a car-crash looks like when it's on the scale of an economy and political system the size of the US, it takes years, precipitates as various unforeseen crises. And what always results in the final crash is when the leadership in charge at the time of the crash seeks to alleviate a problem with a fix that either makes the problem worse (ie: the don't understand what caused the problem in the first place) or makes one of the other existing problems worse, resulting in systemic crisis and ultimately crash.

You look at someone like Bernanke and he's at least partially aware of the game. Even still he's inflating to all hell under political pressure and due to his Keynesian beliefs, without realizing that it is fiscal pumping that creates the very bubbles he's trying to avoid the down-sides of.

There is no avoiding the down-sides, only pushing them out further in time until they are unavoidable. The market is addicted to easy money, and when that policy ends, as it must, things will get very, very ugly.

QE cannot become the new normal, as some are saying it will be. QE99? It's a dream, peeps.

I see you failed to take my advice. Undecided

highcoin

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Out of the around 40 people I brought Bitcoin up to, only two people had seen something about it in the news, and I've only convinced one person to invest in Bitcoins. I brought it up in a community college class this week and not one person new what Bitcoin was. I explained what it was, they looked at me like I was crazy and it was awkward... So nowhere near what I'd call mainstream.

Topic: I believe the price has nowhere to go but down and here's why I think so. - page 3. (Read 4869 times)