I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year

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Quote from: TravelMug on April 01, 2022, 10:24:53 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on April 01, 2022, 10:19:18 PM

Quote from: Pejoh Asu on April 01, 2022, 12:09:44 AM

Rumors that the price of oil must rise is an old thing that I often hear, of course OPEC hopes to regulate prices with supply and now many OPEC countries are leaving because they can't produce anymore, and this is a sign that a lot of oil is getting more difficult, I'm sure oil prices will continue The increase is not because of OPEC's appeal but the world's demand for oil continues to increase, the USA has announced that oil demand reaches more than 15% of world production so that oil prices will continue to rise.

Irrespective of whatever statements they make, the OPEC bloc has no real reason to accept lower prices for oil. Right now countries such as Saudi Arabia are benefitting from this situation in two ways - first of all they can sell increasing amounts of oil, due to the embargo on exports from Russia. And then, they are getting more $$$ for each barrel of oil that they export. Because of stupid policies from the Biden administration, it is the ordinary people from countries like India and Russia who are suffering.

Not just India and Russia, but the whole world are now affected by the embargo on oil against the Russian. And as you have said, someone will have to benefit and it will be Saudi or at least some US ally in the Middle East. So it's going to be a battle of attrition, it looks like Putin is holding up and now putting pressure on US and it's allies regarding the war after a month.

I think that what can drive oil to reach 300USD per barrel is scarcity or what is usually called the Law of Supply and Demand, the more demand there is, the greater the supply and therefore prices rise, and if the war continues as it goes it is likely that the price will increase much more, OPEC can simply calculate a trend, but world events and fundamentals can result in the price continuing to increase, not only of oil, gasoline, oils and everything you have What to do with oil derivatives, in some cases gas is another of the problems that we have and especially in Europe, I think that the sanctions are going more towards Europe than for RUSSIA itself.

Ultegra134

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Quote from: Sithara007 on April 04, 2022, 09:56:08 PM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on April 03, 2022, 01:31:09 PM

Anyway, could someone also explain why oil prices have frozen the past few days? They don't seem to be updating.

Initially the prices rose, because a lot of people thought that Russia won't be able to sell it's crude. But that is not the case, as countries such as China, India and Indonesia are mopping up the supplies from Russia at discounted rates. Even the United States has used this opportunity to increase the imports from Russia (and that is despite the "ban"). The supply crunch for crude oil has not worsened, despite the OPEC decision to not to increase the production. Unless the new set of sanctions explicitly target countries that purchase crude from Russia (that can't be ruled out, given the pro-OPEC leanings of Biden), I foresee the prices to remain in $100-120 per barrel range.

Yeah, there's still a market for Russian oil, despite the US ban, Asian countries are purchasing at discounted prices. Anyway, the future is still vague regarding oil prices, which are highly volatile, but I also project that the price will sustain at approximately $100/barrel.

Currently, after a small surge in prices, which climbed up to $107 for Brent (from $104), prices are plummeting, with WTI Crude trending at $96 and Brent at $101 as we speak. This huge volatility is causing major concerns about the future.

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 30, 2022, 11:05:17 PM

The European countries are openly threatening sanctions and making statements about destroying the Russian market for petroleum and natural gas. And then they expect Russia to sit back and watch. Didn't worked out that well. Russia has issued an ultimatum to Germany (which receives more than 50% of its gas from Russia) to make payments for natural gas in Rubles. If the payments are not made, then the shipment of natural gas will be suspended and most of the industries in Germany will be shut down. Replacing all that gas from other sources is not viable for two reasons - first they don't have enough LNG terminals, and secondly there is not enough spare capacity from the other countries.

And that is the problem with sanctions, as if the other side is powerful enough then they can enact their own sanctions as well, in this case it is not much of a sanction but instead a way to force other governments to begin to use the Ruble which will bring strength to it and debilitate the sanctions they were trying to impose to Russia.

Now some are talking about reducing the dependence on Russian oil, but there is no way they can do this fast enough with solar, wind and other renewable sources of energy, so Europe will need to adopt nuclear energy, which is something many people oppose due to the risks of a leakage and how difficult it could be to fix it, something we saw at Chernobyl and Fukushima.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on April 03, 2022, 01:31:09 PM

Anyway, could someone also explain why oil prices have frozen the past few days? They don't seem to be updating.

Initially the prices rose, because a lot of people thought that Russia won't be able to sell it's crude. But that is not the case, as countries such as China, India and Indonesia are mopping up the supplies from Russia at discounted rates. Even the United States has used this opportunity to increase the imports from Russia (and that is despite the "ban"). The supply crunch for crude oil has not worsened, despite the OPEC decision to not to increase the production. Unless the new set of sanctions explicitly target countries that purchase crude from Russia (that can't be ruled out, given the pro-OPEC leanings of Biden), I foresee the prices to remain in $100-120 per barrel range.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on April 03, 2022, 01:31:09 PM

Anyway, could someone also explain why oil prices have frozen the past few days? They don't seem to be updating.

Do remember that goverments can print as much money as they want and buy all the futures contracts ,stocks,bonds they want , and nobody can verify what they are doing and when...govs can manipulate prices easy

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Quote from: Sithara007 on April 02, 2022, 10:21:20 PM

Quote from: TravelMug on April 01, 2022, 10:24:53 PM

Not just India and Russia, but the whole world are now affected by the embargo on oil against the Russian. And as you have said, someone will have to benefit and it will be Saudi or at least some US ally in the Middle East. So it's going to be a battle of attrition, it looks like Putin is holding up and now putting pressure on US and it's allies regarding the war after a month.

The war will end in a month or so, and if the oil prices continue to remain at $110-120 levels, then many of the oil consuming nations will be forced to get their crude at discounted rates from Russia. Already China and India have indicated that they are willing to purchase Russian crude. These countries face a difficult choice - either purchase Russian crude at a discount, or witness an economic recession in their own territory. BTW, the Indian government should blame themselves. When crude was trading at $40 per barrel, these guys refused to accumulate oil reserves.

Rumors have it that the war will end by May, a month or so from now, however, all these sanctions that have been put against Russia won't be lifted, thus, it's still possible that barrel could still surpass $150, despite the ceasefire. Since other Asian countries are purchasing oil at discounted prices, Russia's economy isn't hurting too much, it's ours that it's being pwned.

Anyway, could someone also explain why oil prices have frozen the past few days? They don't seem to be updating.

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Quote from: Leviathan.007 on March 27, 2022, 03:18:05 PM

I did a few searches regarding what you said and the price is rising as you already said this can be even higher and the reason is clear since Russia is supplying a big share of oil in Europe and these countries need Russia for their gas and oils the price started increasing in another hand these countries are trying to find another resource for supplying oil but this will take time and during this time of oil price if increasing sharply, can't be completely sure about it but 300 is not far at all.

If, in addition, this results in the fact that the supply of oil and gas in the USA and Europe has not been seen much in the news, it is a very big problem, the reason is simple, they have understood that they depend highly on oil and the gas, this shows that as long as there is no alternative energy that can replace them, they have to depend on these countries, and since everything is of a merely political nature, it should not be surprising that both Europe and the USA are somehow receiving oil and gas Russian without being disclosed, sometimes politics can be that dirty.

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Quote from: TravelMug on April 01, 2022, 10:24:53 PM

Not just India and Russia, but the whole world are now affected by the embargo on oil against the Russian. And as you have said, someone will have to benefit and it will be Saudi or at least some US ally in the Middle East. So it's going to be a battle of attrition, it looks like Putin is holding up and now putting pressure on US and it's allies regarding the war after a month.

The war will end in a month or so, and if the oil prices continue to remain at $110-120 levels, then many of the oil consuming nations will be forced to get their crude at discounted rates from Russia. Already China and India have indicated that they are willing to purchase Russian crude. These countries face a difficult choice - either purchase Russian crude at a discount, or witness an economic recession in their own territory. BTW, the Indian government should blame themselves. When crude was trading at $40 per barrel, these guys refused to accumulate oil reserves.

TravelMug

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Quote from: Sithara007 on April 01, 2022, 10:19:18 PM

Quote from: Pejoh Asu on April 01, 2022, 12:09:44 AM

Rumors that the price of oil must rise is an old thing that I often hear, of course OPEC hopes to regulate prices with supply and now many OPEC countries are leaving because they can't produce anymore, and this is a sign that a lot of oil is getting more difficult, I'm sure oil prices will continue The increase is not because of OPEC's appeal but the world's demand for oil continues to increase, the USA has announced that oil demand reaches more than 15% of world production so that oil prices will continue to rise.

Irrespective of whatever statements they make, the OPEC bloc has no real reason to accept lower prices for oil. Right now countries such as Saudi Arabia are benefitting from this situation in two ways - first of all they can sell increasing amounts of oil, due to the embargo on exports from Russia. And then, they are getting more $$$ for each barrel of oil that they export. Because of stupid policies from the Biden administration, it is the ordinary people from countries like India and Russia who are suffering.

Not just India and Russia, but the whole world are now affected by the embargo on oil against the Russian. And as you have said, someone will have to benefit and it will be Saudi or at least some US ally in the Middle East. So it's going to be a battle of attrition, it looks like Putin is holding up and now putting pressure on US and it's allies regarding the war after a month.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Pejoh Asu on April 01, 2022, 12:09:44 AM

Rumors that the price of oil must rise is an old thing that I often hear, of course OPEC hopes to regulate prices with supply and now many OPEC countries are leaving because they can't produce anymore, and this is a sign that a lot of oil is getting more difficult, I'm sure oil prices will continue The increase is not because of OPEC's appeal but the world's demand for oil continues to increase, the USA has announced that oil demand reaches more than 15% of world production so that oil prices will continue to rise.

Irrespective of whatever statements they make, the OPEC bloc has no real reason to accept lower prices for oil. Right now countries such as Saudi Arabia are benefitting from this situation in two ways - first of all they can sell increasing amounts of oil, due to the embargo on exports from Russia. And then, they are getting more $$$ for each barrel of oil that they export. Because of stupid policies from the Biden administration, it is the ordinary people from countries like India and Russia who are suffering.

Pejoh Asu

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Rumors that the price of oil must rise is an old thing that I often hear, of course OPEC hopes to regulate prices with supply and now many OPEC countries are leaving because they can't produce anymore, and this is a sign that a lot of oil is getting more difficult, I'm sure oil prices will continue The increase is not because of OPEC's appeal but the world's demand for oil continues to increase, the USA has announced that oil demand reaches more than 15% of world production so that oil prices will continue to rise.

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Quote from: adaseb on March 31, 2022, 10:51:03 PM

So oil had a bearish day again today. Basically Biden announced a plan to provide around 1 million of barrels of oil from the reserves. And the market took it seriously and had a big dump. Trading only above $100 now.

Along with the Shanghai covid closures and this it was enough to bring oil down 15%. It seems to be more volatile than Bitcoin even.

I think it’s an over reaction and in a weeks time it will go back up.

I think there are more changes coming about the price of the oil because of Biden moves. It's because this that's why market is going down but we know this is for a short time only and maybe the market go back to normal soon.

Oil it's very important to us , if they are more supply the demand can be going down. That's why oil is can volatile than Bitcoin this time.

If they are more countries focus in this happen , some changes will happen. We don't know if they are good or bad.

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So oil had a bearish day again today. Basically Biden announced a plan to provide around 1 million of barrels of oil from the reserves. And the market took it seriously and had a big dump. Trading only above $100 now.

Along with the Shanghai covid closures and this it was enough to bring oil down 15%. It seems to be more volatile than Bitcoin even.

I think it’s an over reaction and in a weeks time it will go back up.

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Quote from: Gozie51 on March 31, 2022, 07:28:27 AM

If Russia is now asking Germany to make payment of gas shipment in rubies that means Russia is threatening Germany and EU because of her large gas reserve. This is probably the reason Russia is flexing military muscle against Ukraine with the understanding that they have resources and need that EU countries won't afford to resist in a haste. Looking for alternative is the best for eu.

LOL... who is threatening whom? It was Germany who imposed sanctions on Russia. First they are sanctioning the payments in EUR and USD. And when Russia ask for payments in RUR instead (in order to bypass the sanctions), they are refusing to adhere. Looking for alternatives may work well in an ideal scenario. But the problem is that, none of the "alternate" suppliers (including the United States) have enough spare capacity to replace even 20% of the Russian supply. Germany and Austria have already announced gas rationing plans. I guess such plans will remain in place for at least the next 5 years.

Gozie51

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Quote from: Sithara007 on March 30, 2022, 11:05:17 PM

The European countries are openly threatening sanctions and making statements about destroying the Russian market for petroleum and natural gas. And then they expect Russia to sit back and watch. Didn't worked out that well. Russia has issued an ultimatum to Germany (which receives more than 50% of its gas from Russia) to make payments for natural gas in Rubles. If the payments are not made, then the shipment of natural gas will be suspended and most of the industries in Germany will be shut down. Replacing all that gas from other sources is not viable for two reasons - first they don't have enough LNG terminals, and secondly there is not enough spare capacity from the other countries.

If Russia is now asking Germany to make payment of gas shipment in rubies that means Russia is threatening Germany and EU because of her large gas reserve. This is probably the reason Russia is flexing military muscle against Ukraine with the understanding that they have resources and need that EU countries won't afford to resist in a haste. Looking for alternative is the best for eu.

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Quote from: spy100 on March 23, 2022, 12:52:01 PM

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

For one country, the country of the world terrorist, such a "price tag" of course would be very useful. And now there will be a huge amount of stuffing in the media, with similar materials and announcements, the purpose of which is to create and maintain "stress" in the market. The goal is an attempt to increase the price and demand for oil products, with a drop in sales and demand for Russian oil, which is a key supplier of funds to the budget of a terrorist country that is losing billions of dollars to wage an aggressive war in Ukraine. They need to maintain their resource economy in order to carry out the crazy ideas of the Kremlin's under-fuhrer. Without high oil prices - these plans will not come true, without filling the budget - an uprising of the population of Russia itself is not ruled out, without the receipt of money - the very existence of this fascist government is in question.

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The European countries are openly threatening sanctions and making statements about destroying the Russian market for petroleum and natural gas. And then they expect Russia to sit back and watch. Didn't worked out that well. Russia has issued an ultimatum to Germany (which receives more than 50% of its gas from Russia) to make payments for natural gas in Rubles. If the payments are not made, then the shipment of natural gas will be suspended and most of the industries in Germany will be shut down. Replacing all that gas from other sources is not viable for two reasons - first they don't have enough LNG terminals, and secondly there is not enough spare capacity from the other countries.

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Quote from: Oilacris on March 30, 2022, 07:16:19 PM

Quote from: wxa7115 on March 30, 2022, 06:15:00 PM

Quote from: spy100 on March 23, 2022, 12:52:01 PM

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

When it comes to rumors the most important thing we need to know is the source of those rumors, if we were talking about a leader of a country which is an important producer of oil then we may give some weight to the rumor and ponder about how likely it is we come close to that price and what will be the consequences of it?

However, if the source is just something that we read online without anything to backup the story, then I do not see the reason to give it any importance at all and we must disregard it as just another case of fake news.

Fake news could be everywhere and anywhere which isnt something that could be seen online but also into traditional mediums that we do have thats why verifying it first would be always the key

whether you do believe it or not because it could neither be the truth or simply fake which it is important to have these considerations.Speaking of barrel reaching 300 USD then if particular
sentiments and crisis do even more tense or becomes more severe then we could possibly hit up but considering on how many countries does produce oil (not only Russia)
then i doubt that we would be seeing these numbers.

indeed the need for oil from Russia is an important part for European countries to meet their needs for oil. and they are looking for alternative supplies other than russia, because of the sanctions imposed on russia as a result of the invasion of ukraine, but so far like germany, i see on television news starting to have trouble with oil, and if this continues and even spreads, it could be it happened. but as you said where it is not only russia that produces oil, then there may be an increase in prices but not to that extent, this is of course related to distribution from other more distant places

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Quote from: wxa7115 on March 30, 2022, 06:15:00 PM

Quote from: spy100 on March 23, 2022, 12:52:01 PM

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

When it comes to rumors the most important thing we need to know is the source of those rumors, if we were talking about a leader of a country which is an important producer of oil then we may give some weight to the rumor and ponder about how likely it is we come close to that price and what will be the consequences of it?

However, if the source is just something that we read online without anything to backup the story, then I do not see the reason to give it any importance at all and we must disregard it as just another case of fake news.

Fake news could be everywhere and anywhere which isnt something that could be seen online but also into traditional mediums that we do have thats why verifying it first would be always the key

whether you do believe it or not because it could neither be the truth or simply fake which it is important to have these considerations.Speaking of barrel reaching 300 USD then if particular
sentiments and crisis do even more tense or becomes more severe then we could possibly hit up but considering on how many countries does produce oil (not only Russia)
then i doubt that we would be seeing these numbers.

wxa7115

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Quote from: spy100 on March 23, 2022, 12:52:01 PM

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

When it comes to rumors the most important thing we need to know is the source of those rumors, if we were talking about a leader of a country which is an important producer of oil then we may give some weight to the rumor and ponder about how likely it is we come close to that price and what will be the consequences of it?

However, if the source is just something that we read online without anything to backup the story, then I do not see the reason to give it any importance at all and we must disregard it as just another case of fake news.

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