Topic: I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year - page 3. (Read 498 times)

I'm also afraid of this scenario, there are rumors of that Europe was having discussion in order to ban Russian imports. It would be the worst case scenario, it would send oil to the moon. Europe is importing 3 million barrels per day, that's a huge number that can't be replaced if lost.

Additional to that Russia will continue to export to at least 5 countries considering their proposal to India as well where they offered to provide them oil/ Gas at a really reasonably low prices which does mean that they would be willing to provide such offer to other countries as well who will be willing to go forth with it.
Therefore 300 is definately going to be an over exaggerated estimate, at the same time there are other countries as well who would be willing to take over this export opportunity since the inflation is already on the floor due to the pandemic as well, which does mean that government would have numerous opportunities to take over this through the renewable sources pulling the price down also it's not that hard there are certain trees as well which can produce fully functional oil even diesel for cars, there ofc not going to take over the production but it just extends to the fact that there is so little rescarch regarding the non conservative sources of energy and this can provide a fast response on that section making it better for the whole community in the long run..

Small correction, we decided to rely on dead animals that died beyond our borders!  Stupid dinos!
Anyhow, although something will absolutely be done, from new power sources to probably and hopefully some much needed castration in the eco-terrorist media and groups, it's going to take a lot of time, I was just going through some numbers, 280 million vehicles in Europe, 1 million BEV sales last year, one decade won't do a thing.

Oh, and part of the stupidity is that the governments have got used to getting billions in gas taxes, imagine we wouldn't have those in place! 

Summarising, we Europeans are in a very bad situation, as we decided to rely on plants and animals dead millions of years ago to power our society, instead of using more modern ways of producing energy (nuclear included).
We are paying the bad choices we made a few decades ago.

If oil goes to 300$, it would mean that gas prices in Europe will hit 4 euros, right now at 2 euros per liter half is tax half is oil (including manufacturing, etc, etc) but let's say 4, just for fun, the exact the same thing will happen in India or Turkey.
Now at 4 euros per liter, how many people will drive around? How many people in India will afford to buy one tank of gas when that will be the average wage worth? Obviously, a lot will cut gas consumption, when the demand goes lower, what will the price do?

When the price goes up, what will some producers who have higher costs do other than increase production, there are thousands of mothballed wells that were losing money even at 100$ per barrel, they will turn them back on, increasing offer, what happens with the price when there is increased offer?

Now, let's assume Russia will cut oil exports, how is China, the biggest oil importer going to react other than invading Manchuria and Siberia?
Let's go with the Russian propaganda, that China will get cheap oil from Russia, then, what are other oil exporters that currently make 85% of Chinese imports going to do other than sell to other countries?



That's a scenario-based n Russian propaganda how hurting Russia will hurt the global economy.
The 1.2 Trillion gas station will ruin the 85 Trillion world if they are not left alone while invading bombing and killing people.


 

Ah! Trump may have made accurate predictions for gas prices, but for the wrong reasons. I am not from the US, so I don’t dare to say which president I like the most, but I wouldn’t use Trump as a benchmark of fair reasoning while Russia is involved.

Looks like you're right! You remind me of what former president Trump said during the 2020 presidential campaign. He made accurate predictions about the gas price we would pay if Biden became president. I still prefer the way Trump is president than Biden. If he were still the president of the US perhaps the war between Russia and Ukraine would not have happened.
The US is one of the 10 countries with the largest oil reserves in the world, if the war does not end seems that the EU will be the one to suffer the most.

$300 per barrel is too unrealistic. It may go up to $150-$200 in the short term. And most of us are forgetting the fact that the Russo-Ukrainian war is only one of the many factors behind this spike. The main reason for the increase in crude oil prices is the replacement of Trump by Biden as the US president. Even before the war, the prices were close to $100 per barrel, due to energy policies from the Biden administration. For the US, it is not going to be of much concern. They produce most of the oil that they consume. But that is not the case with the EU, Japan, China, India.etc. These countries need to import much of their oil from the OPEC and an increase in prices mean a big hole in their respective budgets.

At a certain crude oil tipping point, it will become more cost effective to use vegetable oil in flex fuel diesel vehicles, than actual diesel. More affordable to convert vehicles to biogas or electric, than stay on gasoline. As oil prices rise, consumers will seek alternatives. Some might sell cars and trucks to buy electric scooters and attach a trailer to the rear to haul groceries and cargo. Fossil fuel based transportation isn't a global monopoly, although it is a dominant demographic. These price hikes will incentivize competitors to fossil fuel based transportation to expand.

The post industrial age era saw people trade their horses for automobiles.

If oil prices soar high enough, we could perhaps live to see people trade automobiles for horses and ostrich pulled carts.

The oil industry in Venezuela is in ruins,due to the "smart management" by the Venezuelan socialists.
It would take years for Venezuela to recover it's oil industry and this would require foreign investments,which is impossible under the Maduro goverment.
Iran is exporting oil mostly for the Asian countries.I don't think that the Iranians would switch to Europe.
Iran has close relationships with Russia and not-so-close relationships with the European Union.
Anyway,I don't believe that the oil prices can hit a range above 150 USD for long time frame.
Anything above 150 USD oil price would be catastrophic for the global economy.  

Well.. it is not just a rumor, because there are some articles that are speculating this scenario ...Source : https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-warns-300-dollars-barrel-oil-europe-natural-gas-supply-2022-3

The thing is..... Russia might think that they are providing more than 8% of the worlds oil and that gives them leverage to do what they want, but what happens when countries start to wean themselves off from their dependency from Russian oil? In the long-term this will reduce their customers and buyers of their oil.  

The weather is also changing, so Europe will soon need less Gas than what is needed in cold seasons. 

What I've read is that $120-$150 per barrel is possible but $300 is not going to happen.

Can you cite any source that open did really said that or it's just an overheard somewhere? I don't think that we'll go that far, the price of oil has gone up already and yeah possible to increase but not to that point.

Well, if you think so then you got to start investing in oil then.

Oil.
Banning Russians Gas is next to impossible for Europe, as substituting with LNG is not viable, lacking basic infrastructures.
Substituting Russian Oil is extremely difficult and costly, but doable if all member states are determined to do so.
The efficacy of both those measures, I am not certain.

I think you are talking about gas and not oil? Europe imports about less than 3 million barrels per day from Russian crude^[1], this amount can be compensated by Iranian oil or even allow Venezuela to export oil, also that 3 million barrels out of a total of total 70 million barrels per day will not lead prices to rise from 100 USD to 300 USD.

Do not forget that these prices may be encouraging for shale oil.

With regard to gas, the story is completely different, as is the cost of liquefied gas, establishing stations to receive that gas, and the cost of the story may easily multiply prices several times.

[1]

The price of oil (expressed in US dollars) can rise in two ways. 

The price may rise if oil rises in price, and may rise if the US dollar depreciates. 

What are the prerequisites for an increase in oil prices? 

This is her deficiency.  An embargo on Russian oil could potentially lead to a shortage. 

What are the prerequisites for the depreciation of the US dollar? 

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency.  However, at present, Russia and China are refusing to use the US dollar in their financial and economic activities.  Recently I read the news that Saudi Arabia plans to sell oil not for US dollars, but for Chinese yuan.  This is a very negative signal for the US dollar. 

Therefore, based on this, there are serious prerequisites for further growth in oil prices.

While the possibility exists, the probability is slim.
USA has oil reserves they use to soften price shocks. At 200$/barrel (just a random very high price still much lower than 300) I am certain that many (at least from Texas and OPEC) will consider increasing production and some will consider lowering consumption. Talks with Venezuela are also a fact. I think that market will equalize itself and 300$ won't be reached.

I don't know where you heard the rumor from, but imho it looks more like an attempt to panic people than something with realistic chances to happen.

I think this option is possible. Certainly not 300 dollars, but 200-250 quite. If the European Union refuses Russian oil, the price may rise. But this action will hit Europe very hard and it will be forced to lift sanctions on the fuel industry. I think Europe does not dare to take these actions, it is pointless. When compared with the situation in the gas industry in Europe. I think it will be the same with oil.

If this happens I'm sure there will be many dead industries, the dependence of the industry with oil is very high, if the price of around $ 95 per barrel and the industry has felt a direct impact then if the price of $ 300 will be many industries to die, besides the industry, of course automatives will be reducing the amount of production and will be a lot of unemployment from the increase in oil prices which reached $ 300 per barrel.

While I partly agree with your argument, I highly doubt it would reach that price this year. Demand would not remain constant. You have to think that we came from a $60 price a year ago. Now we are at double that price, not that far from an ATH. To reach $300 would be to multiply by 2.5 from this level.

There are many people who would not be able to afford to go to work with those prices, for example. People who used to take the car on the weekend to go to the countryside would stay in the city. Etc. So, I think the more the price goes up, the more difficult it will be for it to keep going up.

my country is a member of OPEC, but there is no news here that mentions that OPEC will increase the price of oil per barrel .. but if it really happens it will certainly cause massive economic chaos