Topic: I just don't get it. - page 3. (Read 10681 times)

Yes that is one thing I like about entrepreneuring, when they consistently take wrong decisions, they are dethroned from their entrepreneur position and fall back into the pool of wage receivers.

You gulp up lots of newspeak here, confusing every topic you touch, and use it to argue that I can not understand economy? If you think that inflation and deflation can exist simultaneously, does that make you a great economist?

It will keep going up until the growth dies out. And then it'll come down. The trick is to know when that happens. I figure it's smarter to only sell after it's already come down somewhat than to try to anticipate the peak.

My gut feeling is that the peak will be higher than $50 but lower than $300. Time will tell. After the peak we might come down back to single digits even.

If I had unwisely gotten out of bitcoin I sure as hell wouldn't be buying now, but I'd try to catch the next bottom. Whenever and at whatever price level that might be.

xxjs yes many people still look at bitcoin as some very risky HYIP, so they deserve to be punished by low profits or losses, as they sell low buy high.

As for current naysayers, somehow I feel we lost all of them during the stop at $30 level. They don't have any substantial coins any longer. So now the price will grow until the new breed of naysayers decides it is too high too soon and they should get off.

I try again, starting over.

First, bitcoin is not capital, it is not a company, it is money. If you have a good idea, you might get together with some friends, invest, make a good business. After you succeeded, you will have the choice to continue under competition, or sell out. With bitcoin, think of it as you have not yet decided what to invest in, and when you sell out, think that you go back to bitcoin.

Think not of 40 USD per bitcoin, think of 0.025 BTC per dollar. Will you go into dollar, stay for a year, then pull out? What about yen, will you go into yen now, stay there a year then sell out? The relevant central bank has literally said that they will do whatever it takes to reduce the value of the yen, and we know they can find a way. So is it smart to go into yen now?

Why do we want to think about bitcoin this apparently backwards way? Because we think bitcoins are better money, they will keep their value, and are easy to get rid of for other valueable things when you want. When people become aware of this, demand for bitcoins will increase. Nobody knows how many people will like bitcoins, and how many each of them will like to hold. Two months salary, maybe more, since it will keep its value.

This situation is obviously not the case now, but some people with foresight, anticipating some value in the future, push the price upwards now.

Can the price overshoot its natural level? Yes of course, but there are also tons of naysayers out there, keeping the optimists in check.

Fascinating. Now what if Peter is removed and replaced with the FRBNY? How quickly is that new monopoly money that benji is cooking up being absorbed into the economy? Do you think Paul can help with that? What if he takes out a loan to buy a house? If banks aren't lending and/or people aren't borrowing while money(debt) is being destroyed through credit defaults then where's the mechanism that creates debt greater than previous debt? Cash for clunkers v2.0 anyone?

What you're suggesting is that either helicopter ben did not produce all those dollars seen in the chart above AND he's lying when he says he's printing(QE infinity) or those dollars have not yet trickled down to the peasants in the street yet...a function of velocity. It's this velocity factor that allows for both inflation and deflation to exist simultaneously. The economy of a country as large as the US is a complicated animal.

Money velocity is some magic quantity someone has cooked up just to make some stupid formula look more likely.

Lets analyze it. Peter has a big house, because he has a family and so on, but Paul has only a small house plus some money in the bank. Something happens, Peter looses his family, and Paul reconsiders, Peter sells the big house and now has some money. Ok the money has moved. Something happens again, Peter buys back the big house, Paul reconsiders again and now sits with most of the money. The money has moved again, high velocity. But compared to the starting situation, nothing has changed. Therefore, high money velocity only means that people change their value scales more often.

lol

ALL YOUR DEBASE ARE BELONG TO US!

DoomDumas, I love your posts. Not only because we think alike and you're ultra-bull, but also because of your funny-as-hell english mistakes.

I want this part on a T-Shirt:

FIAT
are so much
debase
                   DoomDumas
                       bitcointalk
                        March '13

ok, seriously.  if this were Bitcoin, i'd say we're around 1970.

Price quadrupling in two years? Not satisified.

Bitcoin is the vertical part; except you need to color it green.

actually, i'm very fond of Roman Candles.  when you see something like this, you know you got a problem:

Where do you think Bitcoin is in this curve?

it was $800B back then.  it's almost quadrupled since.

Just read some interesting literatures about gold rush in california. During the first 5 years after gold discovery, some 300,000 people moved into this area to mine gold and on average each person digged out some gold that worth around 70,000 USD in today's price

Based on general economic theory, extra money supply will create inflation, but the California gold rush just proved how wrong that theory is. The prosperity of west coast were largely driven by the discovery of those gold and the increased purchasing power of these area, and the inflation rate during those years are almost zero based on US statistic data

This again proved that inflation has no direct relation to money supply, as long as those money are honest and debt free. It is only those fiat money generated out of thin air could create hyper inflation, since people have little trust in those money

Bitcoin are the future for peoples.. more and more peoples are realizing it.

Fiat are so much debase, and it's only the begining of the realm where fiat are heading to toilet paper use..

World economies are in a so bad shape.. The future is not bright at all..

It took me more than a year to realize how much this thing (bitcoin) is great.  Under 100$ it really undervaluated.. IMO, it will stabilize well over 1000$ !
Before realizing how powerfull bitcoins are, I've sold more than 5000 under a dollar.

This is not yet a bubble, look at all-time data log chart, you will see that we are'nt even entering in the bubble territory. 

Bitoin are to money, what's email are to regular post and even a lot more.. welcome to the future..

When you'll pay 200$ for a week of potatoes, you'll understand.. those who are pilling fiat for their old days will regret so much !

It is way too steep to go on indefinitely, but if you're massively indebted and lack the means to repay then repaying with massively devalued currency may be your only option aside from open default.

Thanks for explanation. It is much more in line with what I thought then, an exponential increase that seems to be in line with the last 15-20 years at least and not much steeper than the 15-20 years before that. Pretty depressing but tripling the amount of a currency in circulation is a hell of a lot worse than 60% dilution i the same period. 200% dilution (tripling) looks like the beginning of hyperinflation

Edit:

If these numbers are accurate how can 60% inflation be true for the ~5 year time frame? Don't Keynesians aim for a long term inflation of 2.5-3%? Even for 3% they shouldn't inflate the currency base with more than 1.03^5 = 1.16 (16%) then! 60% is 9.9% YOY. Has this been going on since 1995? Hell even the incline between 1980 and 1995 looks way too steep.

Thanks for that, it's the velocity of money that is often overlooked. The fed is out of tools and is really painted into a corner at this point.