Topic: I need bitcoin to be $690 to break even.....will I make it? - page 9. (Read 26238 times)

could you elaborate on fractional reserve banking for me please?

one scenario where i could see bitcoin remaining in this current price situation, or slightly higher, while reaching fully adoption(or fully possible adoption, there is a big difference here), would be a scenario full of other useful coins, that will be adopted on large scale(but still under bitcoin in terms of network power and price) and therefore will dilute the overall price of bitcoin

That's nothing more than wishful thinking and wild speculation.


Amph, you make a good argument though. Moving billions of dollars worth of bitcoins would require a more valuable bitcoin to support it, but keep in mind that entities moving those amounts of value in dollars don't actually move dollars. They use things like treasury bills and plain old IOUs. Large movements of value denominated in bitcoins would probably be similar.

Other reasons why increased adoption does not necessarily mean increased price:

• Fractional-reserve banking. If you believe that Bitcoin is immune to fractional-reserve banking, you are being naive.
• Bitcoins, and other crypto-currencies and crypto-assets are much more efficient to transfer. For the same amount of economic activity, many fewer bitcoins are needed. The demand as a result of increased adoption would not be as high as you think. Especially with the huge overhang of hoarding that we have now.

i don't think so, for example if big business companies enter in play they need to move an enormous amount of money, in the range of billion, and with the current tiny market cap, they will end in controlling the total supply, thus making everyone else(especially small business) deprived of the opportunity to use bitcoin

this is the primarily reason, why the price matter, and why can't stay at this level, when the fully adoption will kick in

Do you think? I look at it in the sense that if it becomes widely adopted then it's demand would obviously sky rocket and naturally the exchange price would rise. I would be quite surprised if it's popularity increased and its current value remained the same.

Yeah, that's true but it cant stay that way for ever. In the beginning of mass adoption we may see that but once its taken hold there will be no stopping this rocket to the moon we call Bitcoin.

It is entirely possible for Bitcoin to become widely adopted while the price to remains where it is now or even falls.

5-10 years for reaching a mere 690? this must be a joke, if by that time bitcoin is still at 690, then something went utterly wrong, and bitcoin is done, none can save it anymore

in 10 years the network will go against 3 halving(counting the one of the next year also), the supply will diminish to 450( pay attention this is the the mining supply), the absorbtion will be only 310500, compared to nearly 900k of what it is now(230 x 3800)

basically you're saying that bitcoin will face a slow decline from now and that his death will happen in 5-10 years

assuming that bitcoin won't die, a realistic estimate based on the absorbtion of the mining supply, should tell you that the price will be at least equal to what it is now

so we are talking about a price x3 of what the OP is aiming at, around 2k at the very least

How about you buy a couple more at this price? That way the break even point will drop. Assuming you did not spend too much to get coins at 690 avarage.

Well predictions for these year tells that bitcoin prices will reach upto $600 this year. In a best case scenario it might go over $700. Although it does not seem so if we see the current trend, which is stuck between $220 to $250. Still let us all hope for the best . 

I'd say yes, if you're talking about 5-10 years of time.
There's prediction that it'll cross 300 again by the end of this year, but be warned that this is just speculation.
It can't be predicted for sure, but I personally believe that Bitcoin will rise and will play huge role in our future

I think we'll probably be in the $200-$300 plateau for a while longer but i predict it'll reach $1k within 2 years.

i see bitcoin topping off around 600 this year then next year will be amazing. Just wait

But you are comparing Bitcoin to the regular technological advancement that happens every X year, you are underrating it greatly. Your post sounds like, "why buy an Iphone 1 when there will be Iphone 6's in a couple of years". When we are talking about one of the most important technological advancements in the last 100 years. The network effect is already strong enough to become the most powerful computing power network in the world, imagine in a couple of years. Any advancements that happens will always be smaller than what Bitcoin solved because of simple statistics, therefore Bitcoin can implement any of these changes withing itself.

Thanks, and yes that's what I'm doing

Just hold it for a few years and forget about it.  We've seen this story before.  In a few years you could be a millionaire and look back and laugh at considering selling.  Work on some other stuff or just help promote bitcoin meantime.

Btc is just a speculative instrument without a real use case scenario right now.
If it will find its place in the economy then yeah, it could probably go higher than that. You want to throw 1% of your portfolio and hope for the best? Do it. Are you bagholding from when the price was more than two times of what it is now? Then something is not going well with your equity management and there are no reason right now to take even more risk and loss.
You are talking 10 years in the future, but do a reality check and think about how many things will happen and how technology will change in ten years. The only thing that can and will grow exponentially in this world is technological advancement. It means that everything you hold today is most likely not to increase in value because things tend to become obsolete faster and faster.

Not exactly where you are going with the above...but if the case is btc will never hit $400 bucks again then it is a 'failure' and will die..if that is what you are saying
that is my view from  a long term perspecive it has to 'eventually' get above $400 usd someday imho.

If you take the view that 'open source' bitcoin will survive in the future ..then price will have to reflect that fact as difficulty goes up from mining along with even the corresponding if modest only adoption as it plugs along...etc...if NOT then
the whole thing is just a speculative 'bubble' that will pop when/if that end point is ever reached and your point is correct about it never making $400 usd again


imho it will make $400 on my bet that it  will survive in some manner ..now that could be 2 months or 12 years ...but if it does survive then it is a lot like land

swamp land may be 2 bucks an acre

ny time square way be 50 mil an acre


but no one says in any way/shape of form that says that  'land' is gonna go away ...'poof' like they say about crypto and specifically bitcoin it all comes down to adoption and price
if indeed btc or say ltc crypto is gonna hang around long term or not.

so my bet is really really long term ...10 years plus .....it will hit $400 again (again my point of view) ..if my main point is correct and it survives...if it don't survive
well..then all the price stuff is moot anyway and if my view is correct in this meandering look at the future if it does make it past  10 years and beyond..BTC will be
worth more then 400 usd at some point in time.

hey even at one time the land where they built Disneyland was swampland ......we could get lucky..thus the bet on crypto by me and others on its LONG TERM
OPEN SOURCE SURVIVAL in some manner....as to price/adoption/regulations and the rest ...well no control over that.....I can scoop up what limited amount of BTC
there is in the world at this time via buying it or mining it however....according to what i wish to risk $$$ wise further (or not) ..if I am taking this bet of long term btc survival

and again what the heck it is only $$ someday when they stick you in the assisted living after taking all your stuff away ..you will only have the chances you took
and your toothbrush/crummy bathrobe and slippers so what the heck take a chance

and remember " whatever happens in bitcoin stays in bitcoin".... if it does go belly up that modified Vegas slogan will be used by us all ..denial denial denial on how
much btc we had/have or that we drank the kool aid back in the day... (always good
to have a back up plan)

I'm not sure man, not gonna lie just to make you baghold. I think new money will enter when the price will be lower and we could get a chance of another pretty big bull run but I don't think will see 400$ again.

it was not only for Willy i could agree, but he play a big role in it, it was the one that caused the panic buy, when there were hordes of novices led by doge, that was throwing money at everything called crypto in late 2013

on thing is certain, bitcoin is massively undervalued in this stage, it need absolutely a better marketcap yes, we are missing some zeroes...