Topic: I see a dump approaching, do you? (Read 867 times)

Here you go dump watchers, stole my nephews best crayons for a sketch.   Put down your scythe for a second, take off the grim reaper hoodie as its possible we are within or forming something of a bullish channel.  
  This is only a rough idea, I'm not especially happy with the regular boundary but I dont see enough info for weekly bars for the moment.    I think a sell off is within reasonable odds just down a relatively small amount but if we stay within a channel like this it can give us another higher high 10k or beyond.   Thats enough of a bounce and close of short attempts, etc.



A break of this trend however would be nice to capture on the downside, obviously the trick is to find the snake and ladders moments.

I dont know why do people consider it as a dump. Moving 1-2% is just a typical stuff here on crypto.For now btc price is holding above 9k and i dont see
for it to dropped lower than that but still not an assurance because anytime it can dropped in a blink of an eye.We are already approaching halving
event and it seems it would really touch 5 digit price anytime soon as we are heading nearer.If incase theres a dump then we should ready our stashes to buy back.

Bitcoin price is close to dropping below $9,000 again. 24 hours low was 9108 per https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, so another dump could push the price t drop further, we can't really say because bitcoin has been so volatile so it could drop again, but I believe it would bounce back and make a new high this month, with this kind of trend if it continue, $10,000 will be achieve soon although sudden dump is possible.

Hey there! Read this topic  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/backbone-analogy-for-btc-current-future-price-movements-5218553

I explain all logic that support my forecasts.

For me, the price of Bitcoin would not dump again to its price in $8,000. It is possible for its price to decrease from $9,300 but, I think it would not be under $9,000, it would survive and will retain its price minimum is in $9K and would increase in the coming days ranging above the $9k value and would break the $9,400 barrier.

If the green candle happened the previous day then the next day that usually happens is the red candle, but what is happening now is very different because the green candle can last for several days as it did recently and I am also sure that positive movements like this will continue until tomorrow but can't be sure whether this will continue until the end of the quarter, so prepare yourself if you want to buy because the price is sure to be dipped at any time.

Thanks for that insight.

I would be certain to think and wait until we see the falling lower. I guess we just have to be prepare whenever it does show again at that manner. But as long as it doesn't decrease, we should have maintain our positions until we see the both side.

The possible bullish indicator for the price you have given or the lower one.

This weekend, I don't watch the market, and I think I will be back to the market tomorrow because usually, the market will make good movements in the next day. And I see that yesterday, bitcoin price is on a green candle, so I check with fast at the market today, and I am back to see the green candle again in the market, so I hope tomorrow, the green candle still appears at the market. But I know that it's not guaranteed to expect the same situation now because bitcoin price still moving up and down.

If the price actually dumps it is important to know that what will be the reaction of people. Unfortunately we are such a big massive and totally different group of people in the bitcoin world that we have no idea what will actually happen.

I personally hope that we will move towards recovering after the fall (even if the fall ever happens) instead of trying to stay at that low level.

Remember just recently we actually went from $7.5k levels to under $7k for a while and was around $6.9k levels and everyone was afraid that it will go even further down, some even said we are going towards $3.5k once again like we used to did, however we recovered very well with above $9k levels, now if we ever have another fall, I want that exact thing, at least I hope something like that to happen.

The technical analyst is not a benchmark it will be wrong sometimes. But seeing this sentiment right now bitcoin will be up again, don't you remember bitcoin will meet halving and it could be make as a reason for bitcoin up again. And if we will see the prire movement day by day bitcoin always in a good trend, up drastically and didn't fall drastically it may need several dump before its price comeback to up. This movement price will be like the movement price 2017 ago, you may know about it and the investor just have a though that bitcoin will up and up more than that. 

Today bitcoin is -2% but the good news is it stayed at $9,000.
I am assuming that this is just a small correction prior to another pump, if there's a possible dump that would happen in the next few days, I am not expecting a serious dump, let's just follow the short trend this year, and so far, there's no heavy dump, instead a good start that until now makes the market still bullish.

you can't do both because you have to make your move before the market move happens. for example you can't wait until a drop happens then start shorting bitcoin, by that time it would be way too late since the drop is already over and everyone else has shorted and you will start shorting while price is recovering and going back up. same thing for when price goes up.

Weekend prices dont matter :p    I'm probably wrong to say that but thats how I feel lol   but in any case the prices on the strongest volume are what count like bricks in a wall, the rest is just some mortar to hold it together but its very much about finding the most significant prices and do these really occur on sleepy saturday and sunday.    Obviously the world is large and turning, the end of sunday is actually monday really and ditto saturday is trimmed or in my view that is the picture.


Yea that'd be epic, always possible but what pushes the needle this far is a big if.    200 day I first read that as and of course I think we will re test this and need confirmation before a greater rise.    Every bull run needs a clear path and bears will be gored or possibly win, we shall see.

9050 is first call when/if 9200 goes and I might try small short but as usual I probably would have been smart to enter nearer to 10k as it will waver before it moves properly

I won't either.
I think I am done with buying for now.
Just monitoring the price to where it might go.

Difficult to find the bottom now. The FOMO seems to never stop as of now which is a good thing.
Maybe they should also stay afterwards. It is not just profits as always. Plus, there is the halving which is getting near.
This month of February might really be a big deal if most of the buyers thinks the same like us.
Slow movement up but it is real. So there will be no correction that will happen.

Price is still holding up @$9200-$9400, so there's no dump as of the moment.

But if the price goes down to $8k levels again, (which I have been waiting) then I will definitely jump in to reenter my position again. The hardest decision is that what if the price didn't go that level, I don't want to buy at the 5 digit zone. So it's going to be a dilemma on my part, lol.

Oh I didn't mean to imply going anywhere near the 200-week MA, let alone below. I didn't mean a 50% drop in price, just a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous wave. Like this:

Charts are showing moving up and down to a greater extend which is making it more difficult to predict the supports and resistances. The price might touch down to $8000 but it might also bring a bearish trend in the markets.

The price might continue dropping until $8500 which might make a lot of traders panic sell their coins hoping there would be some more dump so that they can accumulate accordingly but this might reverse from that point and we might experience a continuous pump which might end up above $10,000 which for sure would be the start to the bullish trend. Dump might be expected before the price could pump as far as my knowledge and experience prompts me.

But this statement might not be same for me. I would short if the price goes down and would long if the price goes up so basically there are profits waiting for me on both the directions so honestly speaking, I might not actually care even if there is a dump in the markets. The price have already been above $9500 for some while which was once a resistance level and crossing that resistance makes it more possible for bitcoins to reach another resistance which is $9800.

Yes, a small dump might show up before the journey to $9800 and it might be the point where most of the whales can accumulate for short or midterm profits.

Good analysis, nice position, you're a lot braver than me  

I agree that breaking below $9K would likely lead to quite a few liquidations from some not-so-smart traders who have overlooked the likelihood of finding support (even if temporary) around $8.9K where the 200 Day MA is. Persaonlly, my shorts will trigger on a break of $9.2K (as more of a swing trade), but I'd be keeping a very tight stop loss on the basis of likely bouncing back to re-test this old support as new resistance. I'm aware of how risky this trade is, hence it'd only be a hedge against how long I am right now.

Also think your right about if we break above $9800 we would likely go a lot higher, it's hard to tell how far imo, but quite far probably - at least $11.5K-$12K before a decent sized pull-back. Personally I'd be longing above $9600, rather than $9800, but opening a long isn't quite the same as backing out of a short I guess.


Likewise regarding $9.2K, this is the level I'm watching, while expecting some sort of pull-back soon enough, whether it comes from current prices or higher levels.
I also think any dip will likely get bought up quite quickly, but this is a not-yet-proven theory imo.


Apart from DCA, I don't think I'd be in a hurry to be entering anymore long positions above $7K, not that I would be selling either. I'll leave that opportunity to newer investors wanting to enter the market who have been a lot more patient than me (or older who forgot to buy the dip for that matter). Because ultimately if these new/old investors don't step up to buy $8K levels, because they also bought enough of $6-7K, then who will buy? Like many, I don't have a problem falling back down to $6-7K to accumulate more.

After all, although I think the 200 Day MA has a good chance of holding, as does the $8K level, if we do get rejected by a lower high ($9.5K, after $10.5K, $12K, $14K), then it would suggest a lower low (by simple macro analysis), because it was still indicate bearish market pressure. Obviously there's enough to show the bullish sentiment, but sometimes the bearish picture can fud any bullish sentiment. Remember $10.5K lower high? To me, this showed that enough investors had bought the $7-8K range amd demand had been satisfied, hence falling lower afterwards. The fact that we broke the bear channel is undoubtedly bullish, but without the higher high, we could still make new lows - or equal lows to $6K levels just as likely.

Your TA is good and I like it when you have said it's just under $9k and we'll never see $8k again.

Why not buy if it goes down? But well yeah, this is the decision that we'll ever do whether it goes high or down a bit. I guess everyone has already foreseeing the higher price that they are about to sell. So, this possible revisit to $8k is going to be nothing for longs.