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Topic: I want you to have a look at this graph - page 3. (Read 11166 times)

full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
Your chart is obviously wrong, use the correct version next time...



Sigh, look at the x axis. My graph started on July 2010, yours started at the beginning of 2011.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
Bitcoin is trading at 25.81 as the last trade right now. I seems like the value is going down to stabilize the crazy growth in the past week. We'll probably see a burst as people come home from work later in the day (US). It might just be prime buying time right now.

My thought's exactly. When I saw the price go up last night, I was like, please come down, please come down, I want to buy more.

me too! I sent a wire transfer this afternoon. I'm praying it stays below thirty until I can buy.
newbie
Activity: 55
Merit: 0
Bitcoin is trading at 25.81 as the last trade right now. I seems like the value is going down to stabilize the crazy growth in the past week. We'll probably see a burst as people come home from work later in the day (US). It might just be prime buying time right now.

My thought's exactly. When I saw the price go up last night, I was like, please come down, please come down, I want to buy more.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 251
$31 is overvalue at the current difficulty. I predicted last week that this Friday would end at $19-$22. However I don't see a $25 closing entirely impossible.

$30 will stabilize at around 800k to 1m difficulty.
hero member
Activity: 763
Merit: 500
Please explain that to this non-mathematician

A logarithmic scale is used to show the magnitude of some values, not their absolute value. The "distance" (in that case measured into the y-axis direction) between 1, 10, 100, and 1000 is the same. In comparison, using the usual linear scale the distance between 100 to 200 and 200 to 300 would be the same.
The intent is to flatten out peaks. Also, all your senses as a human being measure the environment in logarithmic scales - hence it is more "natural".
sr. member
Activity: 304
Merit: 250
Do your part for Bitcoin!
Bitcoin is trading at 25.81 as the last trade right now. I seems like the value is going down to stabilize the crazy growth in the past week. We'll probably see a burst as people come home from work later in the day (US). It might just be prime buying time right now.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
The bitcoin economy is not going to crash.  Bitcoin has no natural predators. It will out-breed any native currency. [...]  What's left? gold and Bitcoin, mostly.

wow, i'm amazed by your stark assumptions. though i fear, sadly most people prefer a strong global governance telling them what to do over some geeky software where they loose their money when the next crash/virus eats all their files on their computer.

As opposed to gold, which was confiscated in the thirties or fiat currency, which has lost over 90% of it's value since 1973?
A virus? srsly? ever heard of a backup?

and most people don't have to accept bitcoin in order for it to become a viable currency. it fills a market niche. it is the only product in that niche.  
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1005
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legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1005
Your chart is obviously wrong, use the correct version next time...

hero member
Activity: 763
Merit: 500
The bitcoin economy is not going to crash.  Bitcoin has no natural predators. It will out-breed any native currency. [...]  What's left? gold and Bitcoin, mostly.

wow, i'm amazed by your stark assumptions. though i fear, sadly most people prefer a strong global governance telling them what to do over some geeky software where they loose their money when the next crash/virus eats all their files on their computer.
newbie
Activity: 47
Merit: 0
And tell me with a serious face that the Bitcoin economy is not going to crash.



Look at the same thing on a logarithmic scale.

Please explain that to this non-mathematician
newbie
Activity: 55
Merit: 0
Oil has never crashed before?



There's a "little bit" missing on that graph... 2004-2011. Get the data and prepare to be scared/amazed!

Also on the BTC picture there are 2 weeks missing - it would extend now up to ~30 USD. Wink

LOL, as if that chart reflects volatility in oil as opposed to volatility in the dollar. LOOK at the dates. It was the end of the 1970's. They just completely ended the ties to gold in dollars.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
The bitcoin economy is not going to crash.  Bitcoin has no natural predators. It will out-breed any native currency. What is going to crash is the global economy. The fractional reserve system will either unwind, causing a deflationary death-spiral or eventually hyper-inflate. What will replace the Dollar as the world reserve currency? IMF special drawing rights? please. the Euro? two years from now there won't even be a Euro. Chuinese Yuan (renmimbi)? China is headed for a lost decade or two because they are following the same disasterous neo-mercantilist policies as Japan did. i remember the fear and panic in the 1980-s when we were afraid Japan would take over the world economically. They didn't and China won't and for the same reason.  What's left? gold and Bitcoin, mostly.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
Oil has never crashed before?



There's a "little bit" missing on that graph... 2004-2011. Get the data and prepare to be scared/amazed!

Also on the BTC picture there are 2 weeks missing - it would extend now up to ~30 USD. Wink

That would just make it look even more dangerous.
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
Oil has never crashed before?



There's a "little bit" missing on that graph... 2004-2011. Get the data and prepare to be scared/amazed!

Also on the BTC picture there are 2 weeks missing - it would extend now up to ~30 USD. Wink
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 252
June 08, 2011, 03:09:11 PM
#9
Looks dangerous to me.



However.....

Perhaps a log chart would be better.

Also, consider similarly steep rises earlier in the year. Go back in time and zoom in and one sees something similar to what is happening now. (Think fractaly.)

Yet the price continued upwards after a correction.

Corrections are healthy.

The bitcoin market is a nascent market with relatively low volume and liquidity, and more importantly, it has yet to find any equilibrium, thus technical analysis is pretty much just guesswork.

Price discovery is still in its early stages.

One could just as easily argue that of course it's spiking upwards, because it started at zero. There was no IPO starting price, like with stocks.

A very ominous chart, indeed, but who doesn't recognize the speculative nature of such a young market?
full member
Activity: 135
Merit: 107
June 08, 2011, 03:06:21 PM
#8
And tell me with a serious face that the Bitcoin economy is not going to crash.



Look at the same thing on a logarithmic scale.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
June 08, 2011, 03:05:37 PM
#7
but you havnt made a point, other commodities havnt crashed? yes it might lower and level out, but i doubt itll ever see single dollar figures again, if not for a while at least. just because theres a sharp increase doesnt mean a sharp decrease. Remember the relative number of users isnt that high compared to global population, as it picks up more and more you'll see that the price will just keep going up, yes some big players will sell off but i doubt itll crash

Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing? That's exactly what I'm saying. Other commodities have crashed in similar patterns.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1005
June 08, 2011, 03:02:46 PM
#6
Oil has never crashed before?


hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
Minds are like parachutes they work best when open
June 08, 2011, 02:54:41 PM
#5
but you havnt made a point, other commodities havnt crashed? yes it might lower and level out, but i doubt itll ever see single dollar figures again, if not for a while at least. just because theres a sharp increase doesnt mean a sharp decrease. Remember the relative number of users isnt that high compared to global population, as it picks up more and more you'll see that the price will just keep going up, yes some big players will sell off but i doubt itll crash
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