India needs to win today against Srilanka to confirm their spot in the semifinals. Hardik Pandya won't be able to play due to his injury. I don't think the team management would make any changes to the existing team. Shreyas Iyer need to score big today otherwise he won't be given a chance in the next. Already there are two more players eyeing for the fourth position. After Hardi joins the team after today's game there would be some changes in the team.
Looking at the current form of Indian team I don't think it will be easy for the Srilankan team. They are in the 7th place on the points table. If they lose today then would be the second team be out of the World Cup.
Does India need to win today? I don't think so. As far as I know, their slot in the semi-finals is already confirmed. So far they have 12 points from 6 matches. South Africa also have 12 points, but that is from 7 matches. Australia and New Zealand are far behind with 8 points each. Pakistan, if they win all of their remaining matches will only have 10 points. Afghanistan can reach 12 points if they win all of their remaining matches, but it is a very remote possibility. They have matches remaining against South Africa and Australia.
There are now only two spots open for the semi-finals. Seven teams are still fighting for those two spots. India and South Africa have already secured their place in the semi-finals so now the competition could be between Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Every match is important for India as India will definitely not want to lose any match in the first round. India still have three matches left and I think these three matches are very important for them. If India can win against Sri Lanka today, then they may rest Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Md Siraj, Bhomra and rest these four players with bench players in the next two matches.
After defeating the big teams, India will definitely not want to lose against a team like Sri Lanka. India's next matches are against Sri Lanka, South Africa and the Netherlands. Apart from the match against South Africa, India will win the remaining two matches very easily.
Australia made a great comeback after losing the first two matches. They have won their last 4 matches and are now third in the table. New Zealand, on the other hand, won the first four matches but lost the last three matches, making it difficult for the team to secure a semi-final berth. Afghanistan and Pakistan are in good form now. If these two teams perform well in their upcoming matches, they have a chance to qualify for the semi-finals. We will have to wait until the last match to see which two teams will be third and fourth in the table.