IDEA for a lottery that does not depend on luck - page 2.

Darker45

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on February 13, 2020, 06:44:56 PM

Quote from: cryptoini on February 11, 2020, 10:18:41 AM

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

That is a bad idea. That can be gamed by someone who has a lot of bitcoin. Imagine you have a bunch of bitcoin all you have to do is guess the highest amount and make sure the pool gets that high using alt accounts to "buy tickets". And that's not a lottery there are those types of games and rounds everywhere

I second this. And it does not even make it fairer that the late bettors will pay more expensive tickets. It does not matter especially for whales and big time bettors whether they will be spending bigger amount for as long as they have very high probability of winning.

However, personally, I might still play this kind of lottery especially if the jackpot price is very big.

iamsheikhadil

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Well still it will be totally based on luck because no matter how much you calculate, a person can just buy 100 times more tickets in the last minute and change the outcome and maybe there will be no ticket sold even when you calculate so it's also purely based on luck and the last minute buyers will have a very big advantage even if the price they will pay is high for a ticket.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: cryptoini on February 11, 2020, 10:18:41 AM

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

That is a bad idea. That can be gamed by someone who has a lot of bitcoin. Imagine you have a bunch of bitcoin all you have to do is guess the highest amount and make sure the pool gets that high using alt accounts to "buy tickets". And that's not a lottery there are those types of games and rounds everywhere

cryptoini

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Thanks for all the comments and feedback. At least the post opened an interesting discussion.

I've been myself player of dice, poker and other games. I am just trying to create something different and that depends more on strategy and skill rather than in luck.

First of all, let's don't call it a lottery, it can be called a prediction or betting game. Then, there is the problem of last-minute tickets advantage over other players. I think this can be avoided by doing the game run continuously, without 'round', so every ticket/prediction is checked against the jackpot after an equal period of time, for example, a day or a week. And let's say that the winner gets 50% of the jackpot, to avoid that it goes to 0. With these changes, it is more difficult to predict the jackpot, because some other player may win after you place the bet, so the jackpot will decrease to half.

I realize that this concept of game still need more thinking and work. I think I am going to make a simple website with 'play money', so everybody can test the idea, suggest variations and perhaps we end up with a game that works. Will see...

semobo

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Quote from: cryptoini on February 11, 2020, 10:18:41 AM

Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

Still one who enters as last person can win that lottery even after paying high price,which is likely investing and getting reap from it.I will say this is really a bad idea and people won't get interested on these kind of lotteries.

KTChampions

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Quote from: leea-1334 on February 13, 2020, 05:50:44 AM

Yeah,,, and in the end the whales always win. FOMO3d or whatever gambling game that depends on biggest or latest just means the guy with the biggest wallet or the fastest connection or the best whatever wins. And that means the poor guy and the small fish always lose. Bad idea, bad implementation,,,

... and bad involvement of potential participants. These shortcomings are visible immediately after looking at the algorithm of such a lottery; accordingly, few people will show a desire to be a participant.

leea-1334

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Yeah,,, and in the end the whales always win. FOMO3d or whatever gambling game that depends on biggest or latest just means the guy with the biggest wallet or the fastest connection or the best whatever wins. And that means the poor guy and the small fish always lose. Bad idea, bad implementation,,,

Ucy

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So a whale makes it high and keeps adding to it at the end until they hit their prediction, rinse and repeat easy money. Seems like you're not going to get a good experience from this idea.

Exactly... That is the problem. A wealthy participant or whale could somehow guess the right amount if he/she keeps betting to the level that it becomes difficult for small bettors to participate. The model is prone to abuse If Op has no countermeasures

KTChampions

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Quote from: Timelord2067 on February 12, 2020, 05:09:35 PM

I find it a little bit strange that a newbie comes into bitcointalk with a proto-concept for a lottery by makes no mention of the back end working of the competition - who will adjudicate, who will act as escrow for the funds and where will the competition be held - here or, off site? There are plenty of questions that need to be answered by the OP.

You are right, I looked at the history of his posts, and with this in mind, it seems to me that the OP should tell more about himself, about his ideas and why he began to promote them so abruptly here.

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Quote from: peter0425 on February 12, 2020, 09:53:00 PM

Quote from: Hippocrypto on February 12, 2020, 09:35:12 PM

Quote from: KnightElite on February 12, 2020, 07:41:26 PM

I do not know if there is a lottery that is not base on luck where a specific skills are required. Lottery are most likely based on luck and the chances of winning is very low. If you wan to use your gambling skills then it is better if you play in online gambling sites which is not base on luck. I'm a poker player and both luck and skills are important, you will not win in card games if you are just lucky or vice versa. You need both of the two in order to win and make profit.

There's always a skills driven ideas which can be used at online gambling, but unfortunately all those games are presetted with a real time results. Even how you put to an effort to establish a certain plans to win, but it's not 100% guaranteed because of random picks. Same with lottery, the results isn't accurate and all you need is to enjoy the game without any pressures.

but the thing here is OP is asking about prediction type of lottery in which i see no difference because both are relying on luck.
predicting is partly luck based also so what can be the difference?
OP only making things hard for gamblers when he can just called the Game Prediction or the other is lottery ,and don't make things complicated.

We all know that one of the best gambling games that can play an individual that does not need too much knowledge is the lottery because most of the time it tests the luck of a person. But still, there is a trick inside the game because it is included with the use of statistics and probability to identify which is the card has a chance of having a winner card or lottery but if the number of the contestant goes up and too many it is hard to handle that and predict the possible money and now this will happen the luck of a person because there are a large number of contestants still they have a chance to win a single lottery game.

peter0425

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Quote from: Hippocrypto on February 12, 2020, 09:35:12 PM

Quote from: KnightElite on February 12, 2020, 07:41:26 PM

I do not know if there is a lottery that is not base on luck where a specific skills are required. Lottery are most likely based on luck and the chances of winning is very low. If you wan to use your gambling skills then it is better if you play in online gambling sites which is not base on luck. I'm a poker player and both luck and skills are important, you will not win in card games if you are just lucky or vice versa. You need both of the two in order to win and make profit.

There's always a skills driven ideas which can be used at online gambling, but unfortunately all those games are presetted with a real time results. Even how you put to an effort to establish a certain plans to win, but it's not 100% guaranteed because of random picks. Same with lottery, the results isn't accurate and all you need is to enjoy the game without any pressures.

but the thing here is OP is asking about prediction type of lottery in which i see no difference because both are relying on luck.
predicting is partly luck based also so what can be the difference?
OP only making things hard for gamblers when he can just called the Game Prediction or the other is lottery ,and don't make things complicated.

Hippocrypto

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Quote from: KnightElite on February 12, 2020, 07:41:26 PM

I do not know if there is a lottery that is not base on luck where a specific skills are required. Lottery are most likely based on luck and the chances of winning is very low. If you wan to use your gambling skills then it is better if you play in online gambling sites which is not base on luck. I'm a poker player and both luck and skills are important, you will not win in card games if you are just lucky or vice versa. You need both of the two in order to win and make profit.

There's always a skills driven ideas which can be used at online gambling, but unfortunately all those games are presetted with a real time results. Even how you put to an effort to establish a certain plans to win, but it's not 100% guaranteed because of random picks. Same with lottery, the results isn't accurate and all you need is to enjoy the game without any pressures.

KnightElite

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I do not know if there is a lottery that is not base on luck where a specific skills are required. Lottery are most likely based on luck and the chances of winning is very low. If you wan to use your gambling skills then it is better if you play in online gambling sites which is not base on luck. I'm a poker player and both luck and skills are important, you will not win in card games if you are just lucky or vice versa. You need both of the two in order to win and make profit.

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It's more complicated than a lottery IMO, and ticket should be expensive for some? i doubt that would sell, it's like trading or gambling using some skills but it's not really lottery. What I understand with lottery is that you buy ticket and you'll wait for the result, its not complicated like your idea.

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Quote from: Yamifoud on February 12, 2020, 05:15:31 PM

I really don't understand how it works coz when we are talking about the lottery, it is all about luck...we don't need to apply any strategies or even doing things to increase our chances of winning because there is nothing unlike with the other games.

We call this a lottery game and not any prediction game...And I am sorry to tell you also @OP that even prediction will work on you but not actually it helps you when it comes into lottery unless you will create your own lottery site and you can manipulate the results.

OP called it as not depending on luck because players can put as much as bet they want especially at the endgame while the deadline is near. The strategy is to spend money as much as they can to increase the winning chances.

In other words, it is still a luck-based game lol but with a twist.

I don't see any site that becomes a success to this type of betting meaning it's not preferred by most people. OP can still continue his plan and see if it can attract some people here.

leowonderful

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I enjoy playing in lotteries and jackpots every now and then like most people here, but I have actually played in jackpots like this one in the past and my experience is also that people just end up entering right near the end like what's been mentioned in the OP despite any sort of system to discourage this activity. I imagine almost nobody would ever enter right at the beginning of such a jackpot because of the insanely low odds of guessing correctly compared to the potential rewards based on how high or low the final jackpot amount might even end up being. Ends up being a waiting game till the last few minutes or whatever timeframe you set for the final bets to enter more than anything engaging, which is why I would probably never play a game like this.

blckhawk

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Talking about chances, I think there's more into it. It is true that it can get manipulated by buying a lot of tickets, assuming you're a whale, but if all people wouldn't know how much tickets are already sold, I think what this betting game would act as a security measure is how much tickets are sold by random people and not single entities.

If you're a whale trying to use the strategy said above, you'd have a hugher chance of winning IF your bet amount is significantly higher than all other tickets sold aside from you. If your bet is lower, then it's more likely for you to lose since there are also bets of amounts close to your range, and assuming there's no way of telling how much is in the pot, assuming there are no information leaked, could be a potential game.

Basically, the security if this game lies on people's honesty to not contribute to any large-scale consensus that would spill out possible pot range. You can counteract whales by placing a max number of tickets available for purchase for every user, but they can easily make multiple accounts, or pay other people to bet on their behalf.

Yamifoud

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I really don't understand how it works coz when we are talking about the lottery, it is all about luck...we don't need to apply any strategies or even doing things to increase our chances of winning because there is nothing unlike with the other games.

We call this a lottery game and not any prediction game...And I am sorry to tell you also @OP that even prediction will work on you but not actually it helps you when it comes into lottery unless you will create your own lottery site and you can manipulate the results.

Timelord2067

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I find it a little bit strange that a newbie comes into bitcointalk with a proto-concept for a lottery by makes no mention of the back end working of the competition - who will adjudicate, who will act as escrow for the funds and where will the competition be held - here or, off site? There are plenty of questions that need to be answered by the OP.

tabas

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I don't think this idea will work and it can be abused by those that has enough funds to transfer and be on the exact prediction that they've made before the due date.
Lottery is all about random numbers which no one has an idea what will show next and there's no way to manipulate it.

Topic: IDEA for a lottery that does not depend on luck - page 2. (Read 499 times)