Topic: If Bitcoin had a Billion Max supply instead of 21 million.... - page 2. (Read 552 times)

The main number 1 reason causing demand for Bitcoin is scarcity.

So you saying if there was a trillion btc supply then people would still want (demand) btc at $30k at the moment 

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Number 1 reason for Ethereum demand is usage and utility.

Eth is being used like a foundation for all these De-Fi coins and for 1000s of altcoins that are dependant on Eth. So Eth is like a blood supply to these alts hence its $1200 price now per Eth is high now even though there's a infinity supply to it but it has that demand.

But then again Water is a highly used liquid in the world that still takes resources to clean/filter it before use, it is always in demand 24/7 because without it we die. I can say water is unlimited no fixed supply in gallons hence Water is cheap now. So how Eth is expensive now 

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

That is a pretty good estimate but OP's what if number is just 1 billion. The prices will be affected in a way but the left over bitcoin that hasn't been mined yet will be inconclusive, if bitcoin still follows the same principle then mining the 21,000,001th bitcoin will take more time than 21,000,000th bitcoin which could mean that going past that point would be fruitless for miners and could mean that the market will decide that the left overs will not be of use as the mining gets more difficult so they made a pseudo supply cap that will be followed.

supply and demand is the key to price flunctuation

yeah, things will become totally different

You can't even begin to compare bitcoin with some random low quality altcoin that is only getting pumped and dumped. The only reason why any altcoin specially these new ones have any value is because they were manipulated and pumped while bitcoin price comes from its realistic adoption. Even if bitcoin had 1 billion supply it would still be worth at least 100 times higher than any shitcoin.

Anything that's capped is scarce, true, but anything that isn't capped, is trash? untrue.

Something that is uncapped means 100% (or majority) of it can never be controlled by a single entity or a small group. It also makes it transaction friendly which a scarce commodity like Bitcoin fails to become.

We're all pro bitcoiners here but we can be pro bitcoiners and at the same time acknowledge the shortcomings of it w/o any conflict of interest in my opinion.

The supply of gold is neither pegged nor unfixed because new gold deposit could be found somewhere in the future. What if the gold deposit is so huge that it multiplies the supply of gold by a factor of 10, the price of gold will start to decline.

But, with btc the supply is capped at 21m, that means it can't increase nor decrease. This make btc better than gold.

I don't think that it is going to make much of a difference. Bitcoin is infinitely divisible, and therefore the total supply doesn't matter much. Whether the total supply is 21 million or 1 billion, the market cap is going to be the same. You can argue that Bitcoin may be regarded as less scarce and therefore the demand will go down. But there is a counter argument as well. Right now the unit price is quite high compared to other cryptos and a lot of noobs are reluctant to invest in Bitcoin as a result. IMO, both the factors should neutralize each other.

From economics, one of the core philosophy of money is that it is relatively scarce. When the volume of money in circulation is very high, it'll reduce the value and on the other hand when the volume of money in circulation is low it'll increase its value.

Hence, increasing the MS of btc will reduce its value...

You can not use chainlink as an example in this case, it has different price, different demand and different supply, it is another coin entirely and not bitcoin. Only bitcoin is used as an example if its circulatory supply is assumed to 18.6 billion instead of 18.6 million while other factors are assumed to be as it is now. Also know that the value of a coin is in its demand which will reflect in its marketcap, the value of a coins is in its marketcap.

If people embrace bitcoin the way it is now at reduced supply or increased supply, not the marketcap that will be affected, it is the price that will be affected, the lower the supply the higher the price, the higher the higher the supply the lower the marketcap. But anything that will affect the demand will affect the price also, the higher the demand the high the price, a coin with no demand will not have price increase and will be a dead coin.

Yes, if not demanded for. The 21 million max supply just make bitcoin perfect.

Never compare doge with bitcoin, bitcoin is more demanded for, have more marketcap, even if assumed bitcoin having the same supply as doge, the price will be higher than doge price.

You are wrong, the price will reduce if the supply increase, with the same demand.

I think the marketcap would be lower than the current one, because a billion of coins would be perceived as less scarce than the current max supply, even if in both cases the supply is limited. On the other hand, having lower total supply could also have negative effects, if it was too scarce, like let's say 10,000 bitcoins, it would be viewed more as a collectible rather than a currency or a store of value.

Lets look at a popular Altcoin right now that is Chainklink LINK.

Its price now is $24 and a max supply of 1 billion.

So if Chainlink were to pass $33 price today then as of today then you are saying Chainlink is better than Bitcoin for example?

This is correct where no matter you do changed up the supply if the demand would really be still the same then it would really be showing off the same effect.
It may be on different numbers but it wont really change a thing and also that not all coins had been mined though so calculations are presumptions.
We dont need for the entire supply to increase because the entire population can still able to own coins with fractions.

Honestly, I think it'd be just the current price divided by 47.619.. So around $700 today. I don't think the supply matters as much as the tech does, especially since Bitcoin would've then had 1B max supply since inception. It's like we'd think what 1 BTC would be worth if there were only 441k BTC max. The effect is imo the same.

With this kind of situation, all we have are theories and assumptions.  All the computation will have a huge error since we will never know what will be the market condition if Bitcoin has a Billion supply.  The given calculation on the earlier reply would give us a hint but it is also possible that there will be no change in prices.  People are sure to know how to complicate things with their wide imagination.  Why not just enjoy the volatility of Bitcoin and take profit from it  . 

Nothing would change. The market cap would be the same, and the price would just be lower by the factor of expansion: 21 mil / 1 bil = 0.021 * ~$33k = ~$693.

So price would be around $700 right now.

This is of course assuming everything else stayed the same in relation, so the initial mining reward would have been 50 BTC * (1 bil / 21 mil) and we'd still have nearly all of the supply mined at this point and mining would finish around 2140.

There might be some small psychological difference but probably not. 21 million coins is still a ton of coins, I don't think there'd be much of a psychological impact on the idea of scarcity if there were 1 billion, as both 21 million and 1 billion are very high numbers. If it was a difference of a low number like 1000 BTC supply cap versus 21 million BTC supply cap (and assuming the number of satoshis in one bitcoin was adjusted up so that there would still be roughly the same amount of satoshi's in the supply cap for purposes of transactions to have the ability to be extremely granular) that might have a psychological impact of making the supply seem even more scarce. But in general the scarcity model of Bitcoin has nothing to do with the actual number of Bitcoins available, it has to do with the halving which makes newly minted Bitcoin dwindle over time and the fact that there is a supply cap in the first place.

in fact, that's enough for bitcoin with a supply of 21 million. nothing less and nothing more. limited, rare and may not be allowed to be recycled or more precisely refurbished if it is used up. then with 21 million, the price will continue to rotate, and it will probably go down as time goes by and the owner dies.

The falling price of bitcoin will definitely happen and bitcoin is not one of the best coins at the moment. I think a coin that has a very large total supply only ends up being sampaj because it can't pump its very high prices. so bitcoin is currently in a good position because of limited supply and is in demand by many people

To say about total supply and price, you guys forgot about one decisive factor:

• How long will the total supply be released/ mined/ staked/ minted (not only for bitcoin)?

It is a decisive factor because the more years, decades from now, the higher population over the world so it will be the same story for bitcoin scarcity if the total population increases and reaches to the same rates of the increasing change in the new total supply.

With a bit less than 21 million bitcoin, it will be mined all as schedule in the year 2140. So with 1 billion, what if it will be mined all in the year of 7854 (5714 more years than 2140). I bet that the world population will rise more than 47.62 times (1 billion / 21 million = 47.62). It will do rise exponentially. Of course if the Earth will survive up to that year.

1000 million : 21 million = 47,61 ratio

Current price = $33,460.37

Bitcoin price with 1 billion max supply = $33,460.37 / 47,61 = $702.80

It's just a simple math where the demand is same right now with 18,609,881 BTC circulation supply, the fact is we can't know how's the demand when Bitcoin only in that's circulation with 1 billion max supply, I think many people don't have high demand of it since the circulation is very little than the max supply.