Topic: If market crashes, BTC will crash twice as hard. - page 2. (Read 870 times)

Basically everything is only temporary, even though the market falls many times but still, the collapse of the crypto market will not make bitcoin lose its value because the price in the cryptocurrency market will continue to increase and decrease every time. Any issues and problems that occur in this world, at least directly or not will affect the price in any market that exists so that way, bitcoin will still recover even if it gets repeated drops and this will be fine. Nothing to worry about either.

You're right that all the important events and even pandemic effects will not last forever and eventually market will recover. The financial market includes the fiat, stocks, gold and bitcoin and all of them will recover soon. I must say that now is the time for the  bounce back and recovery of the market.

I believe that market will be fine for a while, I do not care if Trump wins or Biden wins, eventually market will readjust and I know that pandemic happened and it killed many economies in the world but right now I do not think that will continue forever, it will probably recover adn that means "next crash" for market will not be soon, it will take years probably over a decade to happen.

This is why I believe right now is perfect time to invest into both bitcoin (or crypto in general) and also investing into stock market as well, for the next 10 years you are going to make a profit from both of them. I believe by the time 2030 comes bitcoin will be over 50k easily (probably closer to 100k) and also we are going to see stock markets be 5x of what they are right now as well.

Who told you that gold is for making money? the main purpose of gold is to store wealth, though it is volatile enough to make some gains.

huh I mean who would not be happy if they found a kilo of gold? lol they were created to mine gold and have gold, why would they let gold be beneath the ground, we should value gold with our fantasy money HAHA

You find bitcoin boring because you are not finding gold unlike them, but we already have seen a million moment from bitcoin which made it be compared to gold these days.

I understand the logic of your reasoning. But why do you think that the liquidity of an asset so strongly affects the degree of its depreciation during a crisis? A unique diamond/painting or something like that has little liquidity (they are difficult to sell) even when the economy is growing, but this does not mean that during a crisis they lose their value. As it seems to me, on the contrary, they grow in price as they guarantee the safety of at least part of the capital invested in them. Why should it be different with bitcoin?

You couldn't say it any better, having spent some time in the space, I have observed all that matters is timing and patience. If you do not have the patience to hold unto your bitcoin when the market is crashing then you should enlightening yourself into getting a perfect timing in buying the dip. For every crash the market will surely recover, some might take more time than others but the fact is the market will surely recover.

For those that bought the 2017 peak, what they need is patience as the market is still bullish, ignoring the small correction that comes every now and then is the only way to stay focused. Don't get tempted into wanting to outsmart the market asbthe whales are patiently waiting for victim to take advantage of.

Gold is not something you need a lot of to make money though, I know gold companies who are happy about finding few kilograms of gold somewhere, they just do that because they believe there is gold to be mined and they need to do it because the other option is... let the gold be there?

So, when a gold mine is found, it is a HUUUUGE income, literally billions in income as well, so compared to bitcoin it is boring most of the time but super exciting suddenly whereas bitcoin is not super exciting but not boring it is something in between them most of the time as well. I really don't know what could be better gold mining or bitcoin mining but since I am more of a tech person over business person, I would easily pick crypto mining because it would be also quite entertaining as well.

It's all been unpredictable and we are not yet sure but seeing on the current market flows, definitely, crashes isn't a thing to look by.
Perhaps, many speculations seem right that after breaking the $12k resistance dumps will follow next and that is what we have today. But I can't think that it will more down hard below $9k, the support level still strong and it is pretty sure we can make some recoveries for awhile.

Gold moves with a stride or a time scale of over a decade, the time it takes to prospect, establish and begin to extract a gold mine.  SP500 will relate to the business cycle of 6 years and taxable accounts, tax relief etc. but Bitcoin as a very new technology and alternate currency system tied not nationally but globally cross border should not exactly share any of these time frames.   The reason we do fluctuate with SP500 or other prices is the assets are traded on the same accounts with the same margin account calls, if main market sells off it requires capital backing /margin calls and the sale of BTC or reduction in held positions will occur to fund that contraction.   Even gold sells in this way shorter term afaik.     We cant avoid that when so many new dollars are in circulation, we rose partly because everything gained from new dollar flow and so we will contract but the fundamentals the long term rise of BTC is not tied to dollar or any of these other time frames.  
  Its always possible we lose alot of the price, the very highest prices are white water, froth that goes back and forth but its so regular that occurs Im not sure I'd call it a crash.    BTC does not move in isolation, I'd totally agree with that but it is still unique underneath though its not always apparent.

I think it is very tempting to understand Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in terms of the Beta statistic.  Beta the measure of relationship of a security based off past valuations can be valuable in setting up a portfolio.  Bitcoin based off of Gold with deflationary attributes would lead an investor to think it has a negative Beta.  Gold has traditionally has a negative Beta.  There is a definite desire in the Crypto space for Bitcoin to have a negative Beta as well.   Generally, securities with negative Beta are more desired and have higher valuations than similar securities with positive Beta.   That said when you look at the valuations of Bitcoin, the Market and Gold it is extremely difficult to understand the relationship.

Part of the reasoning for that is the extreme growth of Bitcoin between 2014 and 2017.  A growth security can certainly be affected by the market but something growing at the level of Bitcoin it is obvious there are other and much larger factors at play.

Here is a picture from Bittmex that illustrates the lack of a relationship during this period.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=6PVd%2fzC7&id=E69A2666F6AC7D1F1926473734A82A58CAC160BF&thid=OIP.6PVd_zC7K7X6Z6WDsoLmcAHaEd&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fblog.bitmex.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2018%2f03%2frolling.png&exph=543&expw=902&q=beta+bitcoin+to+S%26P+500&simid=608031240335721443&ck=1493AE62779D20C45B7620A888675674&selectedIndex=12&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0

Cryptocurrencies can pick the attributes of a Technology growth stock, Gold, a high risk company and others.
These attributes can change quickly.   Thus if Bitcoin has acts as a high Beta stock for the past year, it could easily be treated more like Gold tomorrow and visversa. 

The ultimate problem with Beta and with many portfolio statistics is that they use prices of assets on a historical basis to derive what is supposed to be the future relationship.  Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are simply too new in my opinion for a meaningful relationship to be established.

I completely disagree.

When Bitcoin crashes, what do you expect to happen to a low cap shitcoin? It will consistently crash harder than BTC. The same exact principle applies here.

Everything else equal, BTC will always crash harder than stock indices or gold, which are much more liquid markets, and which have much thicker bid sides.

It's not about fundamentals. It's not about "Bitcoin was made for this situation" or any nonsense like that. It's all about liquidity. In a liquidity crisis and flight to cash, which markets have the liquidity to absorb a big dump? That is what matters.

I wouldn't be too concern if bitcoin will drop, besides it would just bounce back and that dump is just giving us "AGAIN" and opportunity to buy. Honestly, I love to see people panic as that makes me think making money is easy in crypto, I always bet that bitcoin will rise after it dump and I was right all the time so I wouldn't change my strategy.

What if it will hard twice hard, are you gonna panic? What would you do?

Interesting point of view, I have to think about it. It seems to me that the situation with the virus has now returned to normal (at least there is no more disaster) and we will be able to see how bitcoin will behave further. The fact that in the economy the crisis will worsen is obvious to me.

The idea of bitcoin not being a crisis affected one comes from wall street, not pandemic.
For example, if wall street goes down because it is wall street and they did something wrong and that is the only reason, that is understandable, that could mean they could fall and nothing more, bitcoin could stay high or even go higher because it should not be affected by wall street, it is not something that affects the whole world, only the people who are there and work with them and that is it, aka 2008 crisis for example.

However this wasn't like that, this was literally a catastrophic pandemic that killed hundreds of thousands of people and affected hundreds of millions, maybe billions of people's lives, obviously bitcoin is not against that, it was normal that it went down.

While bitcoin price start dropping slowly people like you get panic and start selling largely. As a result bitcoin price drop significantly. And you are talking about this. It's a short term process. In the long run btc price always stay ahead. Invest in btc for long term and don't get panic. You will have a successful journey with that.

There are many subtle points here. To say that all assets fell would be wrong. Some asset fell strongly, some asset fell less strongly, which means that one of the assets rose relative to the other, right? And if we look at two assets: the dollar and bitcoin, then I think most people expected that during the crisis, bitcoin would perform better than the dollar.
After that fall, bitcoin won back the lost positions, but there is no further growth yet. I hope that in the future the situation will become more certain and we will not see such inconsistencies again.

whats SPY , a non crypto asset  ? non crypto asset are i think not responsible for the markets of cryptos but if that SPY is also a crypto then btc should be the one that dictates its price not SPY . you sounded like a bad guy here because all you ever wanted for btc is to crashed it , do you have an agenda after that happens but sorry because btc supporters wont let that happen anymore .

you mean to say when btc crash the market will crash as well but the intensity of the crash will depend on how hard or soft btc crash is

So many the same post i read regarding on crash or something and I don't know if they are afraid for something worse to be happen or they are just riding the situation where the market is slightly dumping to buy and have a good entry. But I'm wondering if the lift out of lock down really help the bitcoins to pump since i think that this is the natural phenomena and I don't erase the fact that people still in hype since they think about something good to happen in the year of halving.

Why do people think this? Bitcoin is a risk asset. In a panic-driven liquidity crisis, it crashed exactly like it was supposed to.

Maybe in a hundred years, Bitcoin will be reliable enough where it'll just dump 10-15% (like gold did) in a situation like that. But if even gold dumped in March, why would you expect Bitcoin to do the opposite?