If we follow the 2013/2015 patern, the price will reach a new ATH only in 2027

palle11

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Quote from: mk4 on January 08, 2022, 11:01:10 PM

At some point people should just stop following patterns based on past performances. I mean, even the infamous Bitcoin S2F Model broke. It should be totally expected for patterns to stop repeating especially when a lot of people are expecting the same exact outcome.

I believe that patterns may be deceptive because there are far difference in the volume of bitcoin 10 years ago compared to what it is at the current time. Investment in bitcoin have increased and I don't expect the kind of dip in 2017 to happen now.

Quote from: mk4 on January 08, 2022, 11:01:10 PM

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results".

No one can claim to have price guarantee but I know halving is a guarantee Grin

jossiel

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Quote from: Mahanton on January 11, 2022, 05:52:07 PM

Quote from: jossiel on January 11, 2022, 04:49:40 PM

Yeah, that's what I'm assuming and thinking that it could not be the same this time or if it does then that's much better. We'll see a parabolic move again if the pattern is the same.

But the bad news is that it has to go through a long bear again or who knows if that bear is no longer long just as what others have said about the changed in the pattern.

Trends setter, trends have changed and anything related to the trend could make things different.

Market is unpredictable whether it would follow or not on the same trend on those past years then no one ever knows.It is really just normal that there would be similarities in terms of patterns
and forms when basing up with indicators specially on technical ones which it cant be avoided that you would really make out some presumptions that we might be taking on the same situation
or step on the market.As an investor then you should really be wise whatever situation that might happen ahead or in the future.You could look back but dont assume
that it would definitely repeat.

No one knows how the market will be looking like even with the same or different patterns.

But that's it, trends are going to change and it's going to contribute to what's going to be the next big thing. It goes along with the market and really works as the same with it.

I agree that just be wise with your investments and you have to look at your own portfolio and check it most of the time if, most of your coins are good to hold or there has to be the disposal needed to happen.

Mahanton

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Quote from: jossiel on January 11, 2022, 04:49:40 PM

Quote from: milewilda on January 10, 2022, 05:59:41 PM

Quote from: jossiel on January 10, 2022, 05:35:38 PM

Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

It's the normal behavior of bitcoin that will show us new ATHs surprisingly. And even in the past, it had shown the same but those patterns and cycles, we don't know if from this point of time, they'll still be the same.

Patterns could be formed but doesnt mean that it would happen again on present time or in future years to come into this market.People do really love to check out on what happened in the past but if
we do really tend to compare about the adoption and recognition rate then it is truly different in numbers and with that alone then you could already presume that it is unlikely on having the same
situation to happen in the future basing on that alone.

Yeah, that's what I'm assuming and thinking that it could not be the same this time or if it does then that's much better. We'll see a parabolic move again if the pattern is the same.

But the bad news is that it has to go through a long bear again or who knows if that bear is no longer long just as what others have said about the changed in the pattern.

Trends setter, trends have changed and anything related to the trend could make things different.

Market is unpredictable whether it would follow or not on the same trend on those past years then no one ever knows.It is really just normal that there would be similarities in terms of patterns
and forms when basing up with indicators specially on technical ones which it cant be avoided that you would really make out some presumptions that we might be taking on the same situation
or step on the market.As an investor then you should really be wise whatever situation that might happen ahead or in the future.You could look back but dont assume
that it would definitely repeat.

jossiel

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Quote from: milewilda on January 10, 2022, 05:59:41 PM

Quote from: jossiel on January 10, 2022, 05:35:38 PM

Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

It's the normal behavior of bitcoin that will show us new ATHs surprisingly. And even in the past, it had shown the same but those patterns and cycles, we don't know if from this point of time, they'll still be the same.

Patterns could be formed but doesnt mean that it would happen again on present time or in future years to come into this market.People do really love to check out on what happened in the past but if
we do really tend to compare about the adoption and recognition rate then it is truly different in numbers and with that alone then you could already presume that it is unlikely on having the same
situation to happen in the future basing on that alone.

Yeah, that's what I'm assuming and thinking that it could not be the same this time or if it does then that's much better. We'll see a parabolic move again if the pattern is the same.

But the bad news is that it has to go through a long bear again or who knows if that bear is no longer long just as what others have said about the changed in the pattern.

Trends setter, trends have changed and anything related to the trend could make things different.

BuNga_cute

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Quote from: milewilda on January 10, 2022, 05:59:41 PM

Quote from: jossiel on January 10, 2022, 05:35:38 PM

Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

I think if we would follow base on the history charts, it would be predictable and easy to just win all over. It is not that easy, it's not just base on the previous charts.

It might have been different this time and look how the market have grown so much, it could be the same as that but maybe not today.

Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

It's the normal behavior of bitcoin that will show us new ATHs surprisingly. And even in the past, it had shown the same but those patterns and cycles, we don't know if from this point of time, they'll still be the same.

Patterns could be formed but doesnt mean that it would happen again on present time or in future years to come into this market.People do really love to check out on what happened in the past but if
we do really tend to compare about the adoption and recognition rate then it is truly different in numbers and with that alone then you could already presume that it is unlikely on having the same
situation to happen in the future basing on that alone.

We do have to study patterns that occurred in the past, it can be a reference for us to predict future price movements. But that doesn't guarantee
it will happen again, because past situations will be very different from what happens in the future. So there will be some changes that are difficult
to predict, therefore the risk of investing in crypto is very high. There are many things that must be taken into account when making decisions,
so don't be too sure that the pattern that occurred in 2013/2015 will repeat itself. It is very possible that there will be a surprise this year,
Bitcoin could reach new ATH and there is no need to wait until 2027. Therefore I try to collect as much Bitcoin as possible, so if it is true that Bitcoin
this year can reach new ATH, I can make a pretty big profit. In conclusion, Bitcoin price movements are very difficult to predict, so be careful
in making decisions.

milewilda

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Quote from: jossiel on January 10, 2022, 05:35:38 PM

Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

I think if we would follow base on the history charts, it would be predictable and easy to just win all over. It is not that easy, it's not just base on the previous charts.

It might have been different this time and look how the market have grown so much, it could be the same as that but maybe not today.

Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

It's the normal behavior of bitcoin that will show us new ATHs surprisingly. And even in the past, it had shown the same but those patterns and cycles, we don't know if from this point of time, they'll still be the same.

Patterns could be formed but doesnt mean that it would happen again on present time or in future years to come into this market.People do really love to check out on what happened in the past but if
we do really tend to compare about the adoption and recognition rate then it is truly different in numbers and with that alone then you could already presume that it is unlikely on having the same
situation to happen in the future basing on that alone.

jossiel

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Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

I think if we would follow base on the history charts, it would be predictable and easy to just win all over. It is not that easy, it's not just base on the previous charts.

It might have been different this time and look how the market have grown so much, it could be the same as that but maybe not today.

Quote from: kaya11 on January 10, 2022, 06:41:37 AM

There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

It's the normal behavior of bitcoin that will show us new ATHs surprisingly. And even in the past, it had shown the same but those patterns and cycles, we don't know if from this point of time, they'll still be the same.

tvplus006

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Quote from: boumalo on January 08, 2022, 04:14:01 PM

...If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$...

It is difficult to make any predictions of the bitcoin price for the next few years, as something may change significantly over the years. But at the moment I doubt the correctness of such a forecast that the price of bitcoin will decline throughout 2022. I expect that the price of bitcoin will start to increase rapidly after the positive news that is still unknown to me.

kaya11

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I think if we would follow base on the history charts, it would be predictable and easy to just win all over. It is not that easy, it's not just base on the previous charts. There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

acener

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If it would repeat it's cycle then we would have to wait for 4 years the last ATH was hit on 2021 so it would be around 2025.
We still have 3 more years to accumulate as much if we want to make it big in the next ATH.
I wonder it if would go down so low before it gets another ATH just like what happen in between 2017 and 2021 ATH.

EdenHazard

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Quote from: OcTradism on January 09, 2022, 10:58:41 AM

Quote from: Ararbermas on January 09, 2022, 04:51:03 AM

some big investors want to test the potential of bitcoin first before investing or putting huge capital in it. I mean when they saw a good results that's how they will start posting and spreading negative news to bring the price down so that they can buy as well at the lowest price.. Lol that's what we called manipulation because they all knows that there will be a retest afterwards as its how the market works when there's a correction.. They're very smart mate because most of them relies on negative news just to get cheap price.

Indeed, they don't need to test in order to join the market. In fact, if they want to test, they have to buy and sell Bitcoin on the market. Or they can try to make noise with their news, policies, investment plans, etc.

I believe that the market is more affected by investors (institutional, retail) and other entities (government-related) than people, entities or traditional investors that have yet involved in the market at any level.

My gut has it all , of course it's not based on the data but my personal experience.

ive been here in crypto for nearly 8 years now , ups and down .. the crash ... the hype ... ive been through it all so do with everyone else i guess.
the current situation is like a boredom for whales ... especially for those who used to trade stocks and or forex , for now they see an opportunity out there and make enough money since the outbreak so yeah it's a perfect exit for them.
let them go and see the market crashed for a while , then when the momentum come , ypu have to make sure you didnt missed the train to the moon.
which yeah nobody know when exactly that momentum to come. 2027? it could be but could be sooner as well.

TheGreatPython

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Quote from: boumalo on January 08, 2022, 04:14:01 PM

In Dec 2013 : ATH 1200$

then it declined and stayed roughfly between 200$ and 300$ for 22 months

If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

And we would need to wait until 2027 to have a new ATH

But for 2027, we are still having more than 60 months and you failed to include the relation between 22 months in previous and in your speculation of 60 months.

Overall, this is just a FUD. Please do not try to discourage the people who believes into halving and 10x growth.

In 2013's December bitcoin reached then ATH of $1200 and in 2017's December again reached a ATH of $19500 but you failed to consider these. Why?

This must be an incomplete speculation.

OcTradism

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Quote from: Ararbermas on January 09, 2022, 04:51:03 AM

some big investors want to test the potential of bitcoin first before investing or putting huge capital in it. I mean when they saw a good results that's how they will start posting and spreading negative news to bring the price down so that they can buy as well at the lowest price.. Lol that's what we called manipulation because they all knows that there will be a retest afterwards as its how the market works when there's a correction.. They're very smart mate because most of them relies on negative news just to get cheap price.

Indeed, they don't need to test in order to join the market. In fact, if they want to test, they have to buy and sell Bitcoin on the market. Or they can try to make noise with their news, policies, investment plans, etc.

I believe that the market is more affected by investors (institutional, retail) and other entities (government-related) than people, entities or traditional investors that have yet involved in the market at any level.

Ararbermas

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Quote from: Johnyz on January 08, 2022, 04:30:45 PM

The usual scenario for me is that, every time Bitcoin reaches a new peak, bad news started coming in and yes even government spread FUD about Bitcoin, snd the result was a big correction as well. Though Bitcoin is not that affected because it keeps on rising from time to time so I’m also confident that after this correction, new peak will be made and it can happen this year.

some big investors want to test the potential of bitcoin first before investing or putting huge capital in it. I mean when they saw a good results that's how they will start posting and spreading negative news to bring the price down so that they can buy as well at the lowest price.. Lol that's what we called manipulation because they all knows that there will be a retest afterwards as its how the market works when there's a correction.. They're very smart mate because most of them relies on negative news just to get cheap price.

livingfree

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The cycle is very different this time.

But as you're topic says, that will be done if we're going to follow the same pattern. But, IMHO, we're not going anymore with that pattern. A lot have completely changed and those changes were unexpected.

We may go through a bear market from this year up to 2024 and by that time, that's the next halving which is scheduled to happen. And for the same pattern, it's likely that 2025-2026 is going to be the next ATH IMO.

Taskford

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Quote from: boumalo on January 08, 2022, 04:14:01 PM

In Dec 2013 : ATH 1200$

then it declined and stayed roughfly between 200$ and 300$ for 22 months

If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

And we would need to wait until 2027 to have a new ATH

Idea came from : Peter Schiff

I think a more likely scenario is that the Fed stops tightening not long before it will start in 2022, or don't tight much, and BTC raises >100K$ with 18 months from now if Big governments don't ban it.

Maybe go dig the data first since mostly ATH has been reached when there's a halving occur that's why if we cannot see a great recovery for this year then we might see this on next halving. And maybe you are right in your prediction but its kinda missing the halving so I think the movement at that time is less compare if there's a halving event since this one will hype people the same as what happen before.

noorman0

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on January 08, 2022, 04:29:48 PM

^ It is a baseless conclusion which is only OP believe.

There is no opinion to blame, the OP is only speculating based on historical prices (TA), and you are throwing your own opinion based on the behavior of the government and society that has the potential to support price increases.
No matter how intens you do the analysis (TA&FA), it will still produce a maximum of 50% accuracy. Especially if we talk about 3-10 years in the future.

Jawhead999

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I don't understand what you said above, there's no such pattern based on your post. You're talking on 2013 and 2023, where on earth 2027 come from? The better pattern is halving event on 2024, and people will expect 2025 Bitcoin will bullish.

Many governments already start creating his own coin CBDC, I expect government will ban Bitcoin again because if they didn't ban Bitcoin their CBDC will have less interest.

mk4

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At some point people should just stop following patterns based on past performances. I mean, even the infamous Bitcoin S2F Model broke. It should be totally expected for patterns to stop repeating especially when a lot of people are expecting the same exact outcome.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results".

adaseb

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It’s hard to say what effect the fed will actually have on the markets. We already know there will be tapering, reduce balance sheet, increase rates so it won’t be a surprise if these actually happens. It’s priced in.

I think what is more important will be if COVID-19 continues to mess things up and there is no fed rate increases then that will obviously not be priced in.

Or if they raise rates much much sooner or do more hikes then actually planned. So your theory might not exactly work out.

Topic: If we follow the 2013/2015 patern, the price will reach a new ATH only in 2027 (Read 251 times)