"I'll wait for the dip!" - The Crypto Noob Cycle

Bitstar_coin

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Quote from: ImThour on June 28, 2022, 10:54:01 PM

No one can call the Bitcoin bottom, that's how the market works. The only thing you can relate to is the ongoing market situation. The current economy is on the collapse and you cannot call $18k a bottom.
In all the previous cycles, it retraced almost 80%+ and now in the occasion of an upcoming recession, It should follow the same which takes the bottom near about $12k per BTC.
In the end, I would say don't wait for the bottom, start DCAing.

Some people like to think they can catch the bottom, instead of dca at every dip they will claim to be waiting for the bottom something even the top btc analyst are not able to specifically indicate.
it is because of such opinion that makes some investors to miss out entirely on the dip and end up buying on the way up. when the market is reversing it does it so fast you will be left to wondered.

bitterguy28

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let them do their things and do yours , why do you care for them if they don't wanna learn at all?

it has been so many chances that things like these happens yet they don't manage to decide in rightful way.

just always remember that There is no constant situation in crypto , but one thing is specially mentioned always that Bitcoin is the safest currency to invest with specially in long term cycle.

Cryptmuster

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Quote from: kryptqnick on July 08, 2022, 07:27:37 AM

I think its greed that drives such behavior. Take the current situation, for example. The price is around $20k, which is more than 3x below the ATH. If you believe that Bitcoin will recover, just like it always did before, it's reasonable to assume that if you buy now, you can expect a 3x profit, if not 4x-5x because the new ATH is normally higher than the last one. That's some wonderful long-term profits which are very likely. But no, people get greedy and start thinking how much more it can be if Bitcoin goes down even lower, in the end not getting anything out of it.

Waiting for a lower price is greed, it is true, but sometimes it can be justified. If the price can still fall to 10k, then the profit may not be x3-x4, but it will already be at least x6-x8. I think that it is already good time to buy bitcoin, but I would not buy for the entire deposit, but only for its part, so that I would have the opportunity to buy more if the price continues to fall. The price of bitcoin has always risen after falls, I hope this will not change in the future.

traderethereum

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Quote from: kryptqnick on July 08, 2022, 07:27:37 AM

I think its greed that drives such behavior. Take the current situation, for example. The price is around $20k, which is more than 3x below the ATH. If you believe that Bitcoin will recover, just like it always did before, it's reasonable to assume that if you buy now, you can expect a 3x profit, if not 4x-5x because the new ATH is normally higher than the last one. That's some wonderful long-term profits which are very likely. But no, people get greedy and start thinking how much more it can be if Bitcoin goes down even lower, in the end not getting anything out of it.

Those who don't take this opportunity to buy more bitcoins will regret that by the time the price starts to increase, you will be late to buy and even if you can buy it, you probably won't be able to get the low price.
People will start buying when the price starts to increase and tend to hold it if the price drops back down and just sit back and watch the price go up and down below the price he bought.
But if he's already decided to buy at every price bottom, then there's a chance he'll keep buying if the price goes down further.
This needs to be analyzed further to find the right price so that we can buy it and it's okay if we can't buy at the lowest price because it is very difficult to predict when the price will reach the lowest price.

Betwrong

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Quote from: darkangel11 on July 07, 2022, 05:42:23 PM

Quote from: arbiter5 on June 28, 2022, 10:46:58 PM

*Bitcoin drops another 20%* - "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months* - "I'll wait for the dip"

I know people who are doing it this way:

-20%, I'll wait!
-70% I'll wait it can still go deeper.
-85% at -90 I'll start buying
-Bounces back 20% - It's not confirmed yet, I'll wait a few weeks, if it doesn't fall I'll buy.
-goes up another 20% - now it's too expensive, already 40% from the bottom, not worth it.

I also know a guy who once bought Bitcoin when it fell from 1k to $500 and then it went down to $250 and he sold with a 50% loss...

This is the best example I can imagine to show what mistakes can a Bitcoin investor make. I think many people who bought BTC at around $40k are selling now in panic. In fact, they are doing the same mistake as the guy in your story. Panic has never been a good adviser, has never helped in any situation.

As for those who's waiting for even deeper drop to start buying. Well, read the OP, I guess.

kryptqnick

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I think its greed that drives such behavior. Take the current situation, for example. The price is around $20k, which is more than 3x below the ATH. If you believe that Bitcoin will recover, just like it always did before, it's reasonable to assume that if you buy now, you can expect a 3x profit, if not 4x-5x because the new ATH is normally higher than the last one. That's some wonderful long-term profits which are very likely. But no, people get greedy and start thinking how much more it can be if Bitcoin goes down even lower, in the end not getting anything out of it.

Natalim

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Well, I can't deny myself being like that OP during my newbie time in crypto, no experience, no-how about Bitcoin, I'd just floating in the air making a decision without any basis.

But, I was already learn something from my past and my losing experience. I could relate to some emotions and this newbie behavior, they'll need someone to educate them and change their mindset when it comes to investing crypto. And I hope they could find someone.

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Quote from: BITCOIN4X on July 07, 2022, 03:30:50 PM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 07, 2022, 10:34:00 AM

If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

It doesn't matter how you buy and collect bitcoins, if you feel fine then go for it. You can wait to buy every dip, and you can also buy at any price even if it is high, but remember one thing that you have to do it right for the long term and must ignore fluctuations.

Buy more when it goes down, it will be profitable. I think it's a strategy that's been suggested a thousand times and even Saylor still does it. If you believe in the long term potential of bitcoin, collect as much as you can, make some notes and compare them when you want to sell them in the future.

Yes, that's what we have to do before the price increases drastically because there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin will get a pump like before. And if the price hasn't gone up too high, we should use it to buy more bitcoins. But related to what is happening now, maybe we should wait until a correction comes so we can buy at a lower price. If a correction comes, buying more bitcoins is a good time. But remember that before making a purchase, we must analyze so we don't buy the wrong one.

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Quote from: arbiter5 on June 28, 2022, 10:46:58 PM

*Bitcoin drops another 20%* - "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months* - "I'll wait for the dip"

I know people who are doing it this way:

-20%, I'll wait!
-70% I'll wait it can still go deeper.
-85% at -90 I'll start buying
-Bounces back 20% - It's not confirmed yet, I'll wait a few weeks, if it doesn't fall I'll buy.
-goes up another 20% - now it's too expensive, already 40% from the bottom, not worth it.

I also know a guy who once bought Bitcoin when it fell from 1k to $500 and then it went down to $250 and he sold with a 50% loss...

Mahanton

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Quote from: BITCOIN4X on July 07, 2022, 03:30:50 PM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 07, 2022, 10:34:00 AM

If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

It doesn't matter how you buy and collect bitcoins, if you feel fine then go for it. You can wait to buy every dip, and you can also buy at any price even if it is high, but remember one thing that you have to do it right for the long term and must ignore fluctuations.

Buy more when it goes down, it will be profitable. I think it's a strategy that's been suggested a thousand times and even Saylor still does it. If you believe in the long term potential of bitcoin, collect as much as you can, make some notes and compare them when you want to sell them in the future.

We do have different takings and decisions on particular conditions and situation in the market whether we do feel out that its the right time or opportunity to get in or would further more considering that there are some analysis or rumors around that it might dip even more further but of course nothing is assured in terms of price movement and this is the hardest part and this had been always the main challenge.
Its true about that crypto noob cycle but honestly even veterans or old timers are experiencing on the same fate too that determining the bottom is always been hard but if you are the ones who do have
that sufficient experience where at least you do know on what you should gonna do with these kind of market condition which is something that really differs compared to others.

BITCOIN4X

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 07, 2022, 10:34:00 AM

If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

It doesn't matter how you buy and collect bitcoins, if you feel fine then go for it. You can wait to buy every dip, and you can also buy at any price even if it is high, but remember one thing that you have to do it right for the long term and must ignore fluctuations.

Buy more when it goes down, it will be profitable. I think it's a strategy that's been suggested a thousand times and even Saylor still does it. If you believe in the long term potential of bitcoin, collect as much as you can, make some notes and compare them when you want to sell them in the future.

KingsDen

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Quote from: tranthidung on June 28, 2022, 10:56:12 PM

What they said, what they hoped and what they response to when chance comes are differently.

So they hope to see lower price again when Bitcoin is in bull run. When bear market comes and gives them discount price, they are fearful that Bitcoin will fall to zero or to much lower price. They reject to take opportunity and when next bull run comes, they hope again. Then if dips come, bear market comes again, they will reject it again. Undecided

It's funny how the circle repeats and many never learn from it. It is the culture of the crypto market and it will keep happening, that is the reason we have many newbies trooping in during the bull run. They believe since the market is moving, it is an indication that bitcoin will not fail and yhen the price will keep going up and up without dropping again.

Bitcoin is more than a decade and people still never seem to understand how this wonder money works.

ethereumhunter

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If you say you want to buy on the dip, you should forget everything for a moment and stay focused on what you want. So whatever happens in the market later, you have to focus from now on. But if you miss the opportunity to buy on every dip, then you've wasted that good opportunity because the opportunity may not necessarily come the next day. In addition, buying on dip is the desire of many people so you don't have to be afraid because of the trauma of past events.

Apocollapse

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Quote from: Betwrong on July 07, 2022, 05:46:07 AM

This is true for Bitcoin, but not so much for other cryptos or stocks. I mean, it's hard for people not following Bitcoin journey that closely to understand the difference. I kinda pity them because they are missing a great opportunity, but, as our experience shows, we can't do much in regards to helping them understand the difference.

Advice is not enough, but mistake will make them to learn for the future.

That's what those people who're faced the 2017/2018 cycle where they're panic and sold their coins on $3-4K while Bitcoin is slowly recovering and break the new ATH, many people doesn't expect this since they thought Bitcoin already death. The best thing for them to learn about Bitcoin is leave they alone and let them choose to sell or hold their coins, then either they sold or hold their coins, they will learn the same lesson.

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I know what the OP is saying but the bottom probably is not in. Obviously now is still a good time to buy but I still think we go lower. The macro global financial situation is really bad, bitcoin usually follows the bad news with down movements. If a recession is announced by major country govs we will dump.

DCA but hold some cash for likely big down moves.

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Quote from: virasisog on July 04, 2022, 10:45:11 AM

I have committed this kind of mistake when I was a newbie in Bitcoin investing. I was afraid to make a mistake not knowing that fearing the market is already a wrong decision. Most newbies go through this habit of waiting and missing the right opportunity to buy but as chances go by, we learn from these mistakes. We'll be able to notice that the bear season is already an open opportunity for everyone to buy and not wait further. If we'll always fear the market, we'll end up with regrets every time the prices recover.

This is true for Bitcoin, but not so much for other cryptos or stocks. I mean, it's hard for people not following Bitcoin journey that closely to understand the difference. I kinda pity them because they are missing a great opportunity, but, as our experience shows, we can't do much in regards to helping them understand the difference.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: ImThour on June 28, 2022, 10:54:01 PM

No one can call the Bitcoin bottom, that's how the market works.

Didn't you call the Bitcoin bottom around $20K or something similar a week or so ago on WO, before price dropped to $17.5K? Unless I'm mistaking you for someone else here...

I only reference this as it seems contradictory to what you are now saying, even if i don't think it's a bad position long-term...

Was a good short to those levels though

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Quote from: ChrisPop on July 04, 2022, 03:40:26 PM

The market is composed of people ('agents') with different interests expressing their intentions in the market through buy and sell orders. Of course there are algorithms and trading bots, but after all they only do what they have been programmed to do by humans. Emotions still play an important rule. Bots and algorithms can be decoupled if the monitors consider so.

So what you're seeing in the market cycles is a wide spectrum of human emotions --> fear, greed and everything in-between
Successful investors need to learn to bypass their emotions and respect their strategy/reasoning.

Bots are for automation which is something that really prevents you on putting your emotion too much specially when you do trade but as said that still you are the ones who would really be setting up commands
into those bots which would really be doing the job for you but of course it does have its cons on which you cant really able to alter it out if there are sudden changes in the market specially news and fundamentals
which you would really be needing to make out some changes of your settings which bot cant really able to do so unlike when you do manual trades which means that it would really be varying on someone
on which one would really fit out on your preference and turns out to be that effective and sustainable in between both things.

ChrisPop

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The market is composed of people ('agents') with different interests expressing their intentions in the market through buy and sell orders. Of course there are algorithms and trading bots, but after all they only do what they have been programmed to do by humans. Emotions still play an important rule. Bots and algorithms can be decoupled if the monitors consider so.

So what you're seeing in the market cycles is a wide spectrum of human emotions --> fear, greed and everything in-between
Successful investors need to learn to bypass their emotions and respect their strategy/reasoning.

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Quote from: romero121 on July 04, 2022, 10:53:02 AM

Not the noobs, even the users who have been into the market for a longer time period does the same. Even when the price reaches low, people will look for further crash. This happens with users, for the reason to accumulate more if the market crashes. Most of the people doing this were the low volume holders who spend on investment sacrificing more funds allocated for life needs.

True, most small-time investors are like that. They want to get such a tiny amount of price difference hence always wait for a lower price and miss a chance, lol. Baller goes for DCA and looks for any time the price drop down to a certain point that he knows it will turn to be profitable a few years later.

Topic: "I'll wait for the dip!" - The Crypto Noob Cycle (Read 651 times)