Topic: "I'll wait for the dip!" - The Crypto Noob Cycle - page 3. (Read 651 times)

This is where investment plan is necessary. The different trends comes with their own FOMO. The Noob cycle you described is a typical life of a new crypto investor or lets say a less experienced investor who doesn't understand how prices move and what controls them. The idea is to buy as cheap as possible with the aim of selling when the highs begin to set in.

No one can accurately tell what the best dip will fall to, the question an average investor should consider answering is at what price will they buy and will not regret if the price keeps falling. It is similar to answering the question how much can you afford to lose. But in this case an amount that you can comfortably buy bitcoin at with the mind of hodling no matter how low the price keeps falling to.

the way i view it.. if you can calculate the value window.. you can find the safe zone.

there is actual reason the price topped out at $70k and not $100k
everyone on the planet last year could mine bitcoin for under $70k and so no one would buy bitcoin if they can acquire/mine it cheaper elsewhere.
so the buys dry up.
same at the other end if no one can mine for less. anywhere on the planet. then no one is going to sell for less.
this window is then where the price fits it.
if no one is selling for les and cant mine for less. the will buy it for more

yes the window can change if the mining costs change so keep an eye on the changes. but the price sits inside the window. this means the window can grow up and increase giving more chance of reaching $100k if the window is at or above $100k. and it means if new asics come out that are more efficient or that the higher cost miners drop out giving more coin share per block to the remaining miners it can make mining cheaper which then allows the price to come down. because they are more able to sell.

now imagine you have $XX k to invest .. and you found the window is $15k-$70k
decide to split up the window..
(in this scenario you have yet to see the market price. you only know the window)

your willing to risk 1% at the top and more % at the bottom
EG
35% 25% 15% 10% 8% 4% 2% 1%
[|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||]
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

where by you are not throwing it all in. but instead taking opportunity based on risk. where by you always have spare funds left. to take more opportunity.

(in this scenario you NOW look at the price to see where it fits in the window)

we are in the green area right now. so for now dont measure out 1% to leave for the top end. you might aswell re-evaluate and change the % at the bottom end to take the opportunity.
for instance. put that 15% 10% 8% 4% 2% 1% above the current price. into numbers between the bottom of the current window upto  where you might say your willing to still buy at EG all of the green and some orange if the price goes up. and re-jig the % accordingly

but if the price was in the red zone when you first look at market prices(imagine scenario you entered last year). then you would only risk the small percentages and leave the large percentages at the bottom for when the correction occurs so that you can take those opportunities.

..
what you dont want to do is say only invest 5% at $21k because you think/hope that it will drop to then put 95% in.. can leave you in regret if the price rises and you only invested 5%.. however investing 95% at say $30k but then it went down to $21k then to $17k then to $21 again. means you regret the 95% you already spent and only have 5% left.
so spread the percentage to fit the opportunity and risk where you are probably happier to have invested 25% at $21k.. more so then investing just 5% and hoping it drops one more time

Yea, this is the thought of those who are new to the crypto space. Once the price starts dumping the FUD starts at the same time and a lot of negative news comes out together. This is another reason why noobs think this cycle. We can't predict the exact button for each bear ever, so if we wait for that dip most likely we can't accumulate ever. Most of the time happens to me when buying a token price start to dump and never recover till I hold. But if sold, the price starts pumping. Every dip is an accumulation zone if we can hold tight. Otherwise, we will round the cycle and miss the train.

You just demonstrated the exact mindset of all Bitcoin hodlers and intending hodlers in simple words, and it's actually what has been happening and will keep happening, because people never always believe that "now" is the right time to buy Bitcoin, as there has never been to the best time to buy this coin as long as the goal is for a long term investment, because it will always fall and rise, as that's what makes it volatile

I would advise treating bitcoin as another risky asset, before purchasing it(if your sole purpose is holding for its value).
The people that you are referencing in your noob cycle, only invest in safe assets. There's nothing wrong with it. You can never turn them. To each their own.

Bitcoin's purpose was never to make people "rich". It's a revolution against centralized institutions, for a more just society. For the most part, bitcoin's role is over. God can rest now.
It's going to be belittled by pagans with gambling addiction for a long time.

Concidering that the price was at ATH last fall, which was near 70k, and also it has been between 45-60 for a long time last year and the beggining of this year, I believe that 20000 is a relly good chance to enter the market. Bitcoin shows growth in the long term perspective, this is undoubtable, that is why all the pessimistic scenarios about the crash to 0 look rediculous to me. I am sure BTC will be 100000 in the next 1.5 -2 years. That is why bying even at 30000 is a great opportunity, which far-sighted people won`t lose.

That's a good advice actually. There's no doubt that Bitcoin will start rising at one point, and a new ATH will be reached, as it always happens. And since we can't know the BTC bottom for sure, starting buying when it's below $20k is a good idea. Not with all your money allocated for the investment, but maybe with 5% of it at a time. Wait a week, do it again. I'd say, you are very lucky if you manage to invest half of the allocated money at Bitcoin price below $30k.

this is why people need to learn
"buy low sell high"
"average down"
"buy the dip"
"buy the drop not the top"

i personally have hoards from early years so dont NEED more coins.
but when seeing the highs(not interested in selling anyways, give it a few more years)
i then seen the correction of this cycle. and i HAPPILY bought more at the $30k range. then more at the $25k range and more at the $20k range.
im not sad or angry or emotional about the $30k because i know its still a low in comparison to the high and the next cycle
im not sad or angry or emotional about the $25k because i know its still a low in comparison to the high and the next cycle
im not sad or angry or emotional about the $17k that i didnt hit.. because i know not everyone can snake in deals with exact timing to get in at the exact low of the low.

no one can time it perfectly. no one is expected to..
the best people can do is find the window of value opportunity and gauge it as a cheap to premium. and just buy it while in the cheap zone

cheap                                           premium
[|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||]
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Human beings are unpredictable, they always cry's for opportunities but when it comes they took it for granted. i could remembers a friend of mine who always calls me to know the price of bitcoin, at a point he kept saying when is down in a way it won't be able to go down more please i call me i will buy, when bitcoin gets to $17k i called him and said " Oboy are you really sure that is the last point bitcoin could ever dip down"? and i replied him "Yes sir"! so i reminded him to buy he said please lets wait for $10k

Guess what?

Today he has been since from our last discussions i refused to answer his calls because i knew it will still end up the same way as usually. he wrote all kind of text but i totally silent him because he has refused to utilized the opportunities given to him.

And majority of us time it wrong,   And there are people who keep on waiting to buy and then when it is on the top they FOMO and then bitch around when the price goes down.

So yeah, this is going to be cyclical, and as the new investors become old and gain experience, then another set comes in, so it's going to repeat again and again.

It's the age-old gambling issue, just one more turn of the wheel, just one more shuffle of the cards, and I am a winner. That's just human nature and gambling psychology. So I can't blame people for that, that takes a lot of mental toughness to overcome, and not everyone is up for that. Even if you point that out to them, they can't overcome that step and will continue to do so. But in the end, if they are here for the long run, whatever time they get in is still not late.

That's why you need to buy every dip, but not waiting until the lowest dip/bottom.

Many people tend to make easy money for waiting the lowest price to buy and sell on the highest price, but actually on the realization he's bought at the peak and then sell at the bottom, so shame. There's no one can predict the market or have a crystal ball to know the exact Bitcoin price on x day etc.

The best way is setting up many limit orders e.g. buy on specific prices $20K, $19K, $18K, $17K, $16K and so on. If you can hold for long term and Bitcoin will make new ATH, then you'll earn so much profit in the future.

its easy to find indicators that hint to a value window. (bottom/tops) of possible price range the market sits inside
(i use the words hint and possible.. its not a exact formulae for an exact amount. there are other variables that are included that i have not described. its just a loose hint)

but in simple terms, lets first take the ATH
the reason it topped out at $70k instead of $100k is easy to understand
if you work out the mining costs of different regions of the planet (different electric costs) japan and germany being the higher end at between 35-40cent per kwh

you can calculate that the cost becomes around $70k. the threshold where everyone on the planet finds it cheaper to mine it rather then buy it. because obviously everyone on the planet can mine for less then $70k at the time

and so the buys dry up and the sells overpower the buys. so it topped out at $70k
there was no buy demand if people can obtain it cheaper via mining. so thats why it didnt go further.

you can use the mining cost calculations to refresh the value window periodically and see the window prices generally move within

take the bottom.when calculating the minimum (cheapest electric+hardware cost ROI) no one wants to sell at a loss and so they refuse to sell.. again less sells and more buys because for some countries when the price is near the bottom end its cheaper to buy rather than mine it.

this is why the chances of bitcoin Bottom being zero is negligible chance. there is too much value holding it up in the multiple thousands of dollar range to crash to zero

..
what you find is that when the price goes down.. the cheap efficient miners keep mining. its the expensive hobby miners that switch off their asics and then start to buy. this means the efficient miners get more share of the reward meaning more coin per hash. meaning cheaper coin for them mine.

for a drastic shift downwards of the bottom end of the window. would require alot of shifting of hashpower.
the difficulty adjustments wont go back to CPU penny rates in a fortnight. it would take over a year to get to CPU rates again.
the hashrate of the last 6 months is staying happily over 200exa. so yea. that sort of scenario is not happening.

What you are trying to say is described in psychology as “post-purchase remorse,” which is mostly limited to two dimensions, the first of which is the loss due to the opportunity of missed alternatives, which relates to, for example, if he bought bitcoin today and the price fell again tomorrow, the person will regret that he did not wait for tomorrow, and the second is regret because of the change As important as those who bought Bitcoin, then Litecoin rose by more than 10%.

This is a study that you can see: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287625919_Post-purchase_consumer_regret_Conceptualization_and_development_of_the_PPCR_scale

Let me give you a deeper example, back in April and according to a study by ConsumerAffairs it was found that nearly half of the people who bought cryptocurrency in the last year regret their actions, notice this in April, not today.

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/finance/learning-from-financial-hindsight.html

Yes, its fear of the unknown and no knowledge of how the cycles go. The majority need
confirmation that the market is doing what everyone else is saying, thats why at $60k
after weeks of upward movement it looks like its going to $100k (but it doesnt) Likewise
at $20k after weeks of downward movement it looks like its going to $1k (but it doesnt)

So a lot of people end up buying and selling at the opposite ends of the market!

That's the mentality of those not serious in their investments , meaning people constantly act like that are those people that never make a good Money inside crypto market .
 and talking about dip, mostly people understand this as 30-50% drop in which favors your comment but the word telling that Bitcoin is dead? maybe that is exaggerated part.
I am buying Bitcoin every 10% dropping and selling when there are at least 20% and up increasing .

Funny how despite most people not being able to do it well, most people still want to time markets; thinking that they're different and that they can outsmart everyone or something.

What they said, what they hoped and what they response to when chance comes are differently.

So they hope to see lower price again when Bitcoin is in bull run. When bear market comes and gives them discount price, they are fearful that Bitcoin will fall to zero or to much lower price. They reject to take opportunity and when next bull run comes, they hope again. Then if dips come, bear market comes again, they will reject it again. 

No one can call the Bitcoin bottom, that's how the market works. The only thing you can relate to is the ongoing market situation. The current economy is on the collapse and you cannot call $18k a bottom.
In all the previous cycles, it retraced almost 80%+ and now in the occasion of an upcoming recession, It should follow the same which takes the bottom near about $12k per BTC.
In the end, I would say don't wait for the bottom, start DCAing.

*Bitcoin drops 10%*  -  "I'll wait for it to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "it's going to drop more"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "I'll finally buy at another 10% drop"

*Bitcoin drops another 10%*  -  "looks like it's going to drop further"

*Bitcoin drops another 20%*  -  "I'm not buying. bitcoin is dead"

*Bitcoin reaches the price floor, then rises slowly for months an months*  -  "I'll wait for the dip"



- repeat after every halving cycle -