hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
The market sensentiment ultimately determines price. While many may sell to cover expenses, some may have bought in speculatively simply hoping to get rich quick. Others have bought in because of a desire to reduce their participation in the banking system, because of black market activities constrained by financial regulation and surveillance, or because of a sincere conviction that bitcoin represents a technological leap that will not be supplanted by any other cryptocurrency, believing none truly offer any real advantages over bitcoin, or at least no advantages that can outweight Bitcoins advantage of being the first.
The price drops are testing the share of the market with strong conviction, for any of the above reasons. The weak hands, or the get rich quickers, who scare easy and sell, play into the hands of the strong hands, those with firm understanding and conviction, and the market shifts from the weak to the strong hands.
The bitcoin market is further complicated by the ease of price manipulation. There is no government oversight, and it is small enough that prices can be maniplated by whales. This leads to the increased volatility, but the problem fixes itself as soon as word gets out of the money being made by the manipulators, and bigger players enter looking for a piece of the action. This is part of what causes the price spikes.
Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance, but so far this crash is not a deviation from the past cycles. If there was no risk, there would be nothing to be gained.
In other words, the price is supported by the believers. The firmness of one's belief in the potential of bitcoin is a function of understanding. Bitcoin is not perfect, but it is far superior to the alternatives. Bitcoin will not render fiat obsolete, just as email has not rendered the post office obsolete. But it will dramatically change the landscape of the financial world.
You're free to call me an idiot, but my only regret is not having bought more below $100. I apologize to the people who bought my coins at $1100, and I will gladly buy them back as funds become available. However, I recommend holding, and consider our work to be learning more about bitcoin and informing others about bitcoin. Speculators may cause another rally, or the sheer force of mathematics may drive less spectacular price growth, but in either case, the black market alone will push the price to new highs, regardless of any government action. Remember that the mining pools are pools, not centralized actors, and know that any revolution succeeds based on the conviction of its participants.
Don't be bullied by the voices of naysayers, and remember that the frontier belongs to the intrepid, not the cowardly. Yes, there is banditry and danger on the frontier, but there is also freedom and openness. We will all lose all our money sooner or later, along with our lives, but I personally prefer to rule my fear, rather than to be ruled by it.
There has never been a revolution that has not met opposition, but it is by perseverance that they succeed. If you are agonizing over losses now and considering selling, consider that this is not, in fact, a get rich quick scheme. The time you spend biting your nails over losses, being tortured by doubt, weathering scorn and lack of understanding from peers, are the work that you are putting into it. If you are not willing to do this work, you are not going to get paid.
