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Topic: Im fairly confident the NSA (US Gov) Can 51% Any Coin At Any Time (Read 7044 times)

hero member
Activity: 793
Merit: 1026
OP, you're that confident because you don't know enough about bitcoin or computers.
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
LINK TO WIRED ARTICLE: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/all/

Im dont have a degree in computer science and couldnt do any calculations even if we had real numbers about just how powerful the NSA's combined hashing power is, but given the scale and rate of development of massively parallel computing power the NSA has developed for code breaking, and given that they employ thousands of the smartest and best programmers and cryptographers in the world, and given that they have an unlimited budget, its seems obvious to me that the US Gov could have the NSA 51% attack any coin at any time. They have machines which make your Avalon look like a Casio watch from 1980.

Sorry for the downer, and hey at least Bitcoins have bounced back a little today. But to me this seems to be by far the biggest threat to Bitcoin and all the altcoins. Sorry if this has been posted or discussed here before, I did a quick search but didnt find much.

"the agency has not finished building at Oak Ridge, nor is it satisfied with breaking the petaflop barrier. Its next goal is to reach exaflop speed, one quintillion (1018) operations a second, and eventually zettaflop (1021) and yottaflop."

I'm going to take a wild guess here and assert that the NSA doesn't give a rat's ass about BitCoin, and most likely, never will.
pwi
member
Activity: 118
Merit: 10
So people here are like "Even if this three-letter agency were to spend billions of dollars of taxpayers' money just to disrupt a civilian network run partly by American citizens, I would do nothing but get others to harden my network", really?

If our (US) government opts to allocate necessary resources to such an endeavor, my coins will be the least of my worries. My principal worry will be holding my place in line for government handouts that will be necessary to support those of us that do not hold the wealth needed to support this effort and still feed ourselves. The time may come. In the meantime the US government will likely resort to less resource intensive intrusions on both privacy and economy.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1004
felonious vagrancy, personified
I'm fairly confident you don't know what you're talking about.

FLoating point OPerations have nothing to do with bitcoin mining.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
You will likely be able to go into Best Buy in the next few years and buy an ASIC miner, cheap.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
LINK TO WIRED ARTICLE: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/all/

Im dont have a degree in computer science and couldnt do any calculations even if we had real numbers about just how powerful the NSA's combined hashing power is, but given the scale and rate of development of massively parallel computing power the NSA has developed for code breaking, and given that they employ thousands of the smartest and best programmers and cryptographers in the world, and given that they have an unlimited budget, its seems obvious to me that the US Gov could have the NSA 51% attack any coin at any time. They have machines which make your Avalon look like a Casio watch from 1980.

Sorry for the downer, and hey at least Bitcoins have bounced back a little today. But to me this seems to be by far the biggest threat to Bitcoin and all the altcoins. Sorry if this has been posted or discussed here before, I did a quick search but didnt find much.

"the agency has not finished building at Oak Ridge, nor is it satisfied with breaking the petaflop barrier. Its next goal is to reach exaflop speed, one quintillion (1018) operations a second, and eventually zettaflop (1021) and yottaflop."


You've been watching too many movies haven't you? This is a plot from the movie Sneakers.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
fortunately this isnt really a threat. the computers they have now are not designed to hash sha256 and if they did invest the resources necessary to develop their own asics we would simply switch to a new POW scheme each time Grin
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
www.DonateMedia.org
Even if the government decided to take such action, even if they effectively "killed" Bitcoin, there are about 10 others to choose from I think. Bitcoin is a hydra, cut off one head two more appear  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1114
WalletScrutiny.com
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I really hope Im wrong and Im sure Im not the first person to consider this. Also, a 1 billion dollar market cap currency isnt a threat to the dollar.

But what about 10 billion? 100billion? 1 trillion? 10 trillion? When do they decide to pull the trigger, if they could?
I don't think the market cap is the real threat. The whole idea of taking away control over both supply and traceability of transactions is annoying the New World Order pyramid.



Quote
Why cant they just write Bitcoin hashing code for their existing code breaking machines, fork the chain, invalidate all our coins, and then go back to hacking your Facebook to learn grandma's secret pie crust recipe?
Written code is inefficient. CPU mining shows this. First the code is compiled from C++ to ASM by compiler on Satoshi's notebook. Then the ASM x86 instructions are translated into RISC instructions by CPU internal hardware to finally execute. ASIC hardware have the logic needed for Bitcoin hashing designed into silicon wafers and transistors bypassing ALL other steps needed. This is why ASIC is the fastest solution possible and also this makes the ASIC unsuitable to any other purpose than Bitcoin mining and home heating.

If the 51% attack starts today all they can do is invalidate transactions starting from today. Unless they redo ALL work from last checkpoint hardcoded into Bitcoin-Qt that is more challenging than simple 51% denial of service and doublespend attack.
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bullshit

bitcoin is the most powerful computing effort undertaken by humans to date...by an order of magnitude and then some
This.
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I can assure you that the NSA has bigger things to worry about than bitcoin.
I think reading private e-mails of all population to figure out who don't like USA government and new world order is more important task. Seriously. More than 50% of world hates USA. Now that's a 51% attack against USA!
Quote
The american intelligence agencies have no incentive to bring down bitcoin. Unless the NSA receives an executive order to kill bitcoin, they simply won't do it.
Even if they receive such orders all they can do is attack public persons involved in Bitcoin, take down exchanges and services accepting them and attack individual nodes. This will bring chaos and destruction but the Bitcoin will survive. Think about going really hidden and anonymous then.
Quote
I totally agree with the OP. If some school kids can buy chips in China for some 20M USD, then the CIA can do so, too.
Think about BFL and Inaba scaming CIA like everyone else. Cheesy They can order the ASIC chips from foundries but it might be hard for them to keep this secret. The designs might get leaked, the chips might be produced more than ordered and sold on black market. There are not many foundries in world who operate on recent 28nm or even 45nm process. They need such process unless they are ready to use outdated and inefficient 180nm.
Quote
My conclusion is that we already have the blessing of these circles. One version would be that Satoshi is the CIA.
We already figured out that Satoshi is time traveler from future and not Sirius. He definitely could not be CIA. Cheesy
Quote
After all the $$ will fail, so what else would you do? Gold standard?
Invalidate the current US Dollar, start printing red colored dollars called New US Dollar. Exchange all current US dollars for new US dollars with exchange rate 200 to 1. Problem solved. Learn what the government fucks did to money in Latvia after fall of USSR.
Quote
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they could do it, nor if they have a contingency plan for taking down the entire Internet at least briefly.  If not the NSA, then some other TLA.
Sure they can switch off large part of internet. Including their own military systems depending on Internet. Existing network in other parts in world will continue to function. Bitcoin will continue to function there too.
Quote
The Government can't do anything more about crypto-currency than they could about Pirate Bay
They actually could do less. Pirate Bay have centralized servers. Raid them, take them offline, harass the owners. Bitcoin is decentralized to such degree that every node and pool is independent Pirate Bay.
Quote
They're the NSA.  If they wanted, they could spend <1% of their budget, have some nice 28nm ASICs fabbed and mass produced and take like 80% of the network.

Good news though.  They don't give a shit.
In the moment they start to plan this move, the spy agencies in Russia, China, Iran will be informed. They might not care about well-being of Bitcoin but they might sabotage the NSA-CIA work as a routine action of spite and lulz. Contaminating the fab facility by subtle sabotage is not hard for them. Definitely it does not cost 30 billion or require Otto Skorenzy parachuting over the fab.
Quote
But they can not do it secretively, they will have to join the network and thus revealing their identity to have an impact, and this directly defeat the purpose of  existence of "No Such Agency".
Even 13 year old boy can do that without revealing himself. They connect to Bitcoin network using Tor and then publish the longer malicious chain. I just solved the problem for NSA. They are welcome to send the hacked bitcoins to address in my signature as I probably spared them of few million taxpayers USD needed to solve this problem!
Quote
This was also the genius of the early internet: The same technology that's to make dissident political communications hard to censor is also used for commerce and chatting to friends. You can't shut down the one without shutting down the other. This makes the network very strong, because people may not be bothered about some nutjob's right to express his political views, but mess with their ability to share pictures of their cats and THE STREETS WILL RUN RED WITH THE BLOOD OF REVOLUTION.
This largely depends on how many people are willing to go on streets and start shooting at police and military troops because they cannot share lolcats in internet. And how victoriously they could do it without being defeated. For this to happen the situation in other aspects of society must be as bad too. This is why all regulations, censorship and taking away civil liberties are done slowly and in small increments.
Quote
What do you think they are doing with all that power?  Breaking codes, matching hashes, the same kind of thing Bitcoin miners do.
Mass surveillance of both domestic and foreign population. Datamining and storing every communication for eternity.
Quote
Also, they could hack into any exchange they want...
Bullshit. Everyone who knows about computer security will agree that there is no such thing as guaranteed hackability. This is why Pirate Bay was physically raided and taken away and not hacked from NSA or FBI every time it resurfaced.
Quote
Of course countries ran by authoritize regimes (China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, etc etc) would probably try to take a hardline approach on something like bitcoin if it undermined their power or influence at all.
I think these countries might embrace Bitcoin instead as a weapon to destabilize USA monetary grip over world.

Also I'm slightly annoyed about the way mom quotes. Almost as bad as German 8 o'clock news. Source: Internet
hero member
Activity: 516
Merit: 500
CAT.EX Exchange
Fed-up adults will not break up kids' game by playing the game. 
legendary
Activity: 1002
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin
within a year, diff will be so high that even NSA wont be able to 51 BTC, at least not without a really significant expense.. like too expensive, even for the NSA !!!

BTC will strive forever !
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1049
Death to enemies!
Quote
I really hope Im wrong and Im sure Im not the first person to consider this. Also, a 1 billion dollar market cap currency isnt a threat to the dollar.

But what about 10 billion? 100billion? 1 trillion? 10 trillion? When do they decide to pull the trigger, if they could?
I don't think the market cap is the real threat. The whole idea of taking away control over both supply and traceability of transactions is annoying the New World Order pyramid.



Quote
Why cant they just write Bitcoin hashing code for their existing code breaking machines, fork the chain, invalidate all our coins, and then go back to hacking your Facebook to learn grandma's secret pie crust recipe?
Written code is inefficient. CPU mining shows this. First the code is compiled from C++ to ASM by compiler on Satoshi's notebook. Then the ASM x86 instructions are translated into RISC instructions by CPU internal hardware to finally execute. ASIC hardware have the logic needed for Bitcoin hashing designed into silicon wafers and transistors bypassing ALL other steps needed. This is why ASIC is the fastest solution possible and also this makes the ASIC unsuitable to any other purpose than Bitcoin mining and home heating.

If the 51% attack starts today all they can do is invalidate transactions starting from today. Unless they redo ALL work from last checkpoint hardcoded into Bitcoin-Qt that is more challenging than simple 51% denial of service and doublespend attack.
Quote
bullshit

bitcoin is the most powerful computing effort undertaken by humans to date...by an order of magnitude and then some
This.
Quote
I can assure you that the NSA has bigger things to worry about than bitcoin.
I think reading private e-mails of all population to figure out who don't like USA government and new world order is more important task. Seriously. More than 50% of world hates USA. Now that's a 51% attack against USA!
Quote
The american intelligence agencies have no incentive to bring down bitcoin. Unless the NSA receives an executive order to kill bitcoin, they simply won't do it.
Even if they receive such orders all they can do is attack public persons involved in Bitcoin, take down exchanges and services accepting them and attack individual nodes. This will bring chaos and destruction but the Bitcoin will survive. Think about going really hidden and anonymous then.
Quote
I totally agree with the OP. If some school kids can buy chips in China for some 20M USD, then the CIA can do so, too.
Think about BFL and Inaba scaming CIA like everyone else. Cheesy They can order the ASIC chips from foundries but it might be hard for them to keep this secret. The designs might get leaked, the chips might be produced more than ordered and sold on black market. There are not many foundries in world who operate on recent 28nm or even 45nm process. They need such process unless they are ready to use outdated and inefficient 180nm.
Quote
My conclusion is that we already have the blessing of these circles. One version would be that Satoshi is the CIA.
We already figured out that Satoshi is time traveler from future and not Sirius. He definitely could not be CIA. Cheesy
Quote
After all the $$ will fail, so what else would you do? Gold standard?
Invalidate the current US Dollar, start printing red colored dollars called New US Dollar. Exchange all current US dollars for new US dollars with exchange rate 200 to 1. Problem solved. Learn what the government fucks did to money in Latvia after fall of USSR.
Quote
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they could do it, nor if they have a contingency plan for taking down the entire Internet at least briefly.  If not the NSA, then some other TLA.
Sure they can switch off large part of internet. Including their own military systems depending on Internet. Existing network in other parts in world will continue to function. Bitcoin will continue to function there too.
Quote
The Government can't do anything more about crypto-currency than they could about Pirate Bay
They actually could do less. Pirate Bay have centralized servers. Raid them, take them offline, harass the owners. Bitcoin is decentralized to such degree that every node and pool is independent Pirate Bay.
Quote
They're the NSA.  If they wanted, they could spend <1% of their budget, have some nice 28nm ASICs fabbed and mass produced and take like 80% of the network.

Good news though.  They don't give a shit.
In the moment they start to plan this move, the spy agencies in Russia, China, Iran will be informed. They might not care about well-being of Bitcoin but they might sabotage the NSA-CIA work as a routine action of spite and lulz. Contaminating the fab facility by subtle sabotage is not hard for them. Definitely it does not cost 30 billion or require Otto Skorenzy parachuting over the fab.
Quote
But they can not do it secretively, they will have to join the network and thus revealing their identity to have an impact, and this directly defeat the purpose of  existence of "No Such Agency".
Even 13 year old boy can do that without revealing himself. They connect to Bitcoin network using Tor and then publish the longer malicious chain. I just solved the problem for NSA. They are welcome to send the hacked bitcoins to address in my signature as I probably spared them of few million taxpayers USD needed to solve this problem!
Quote
This was also the genius of the early internet: The same technology that's to make dissident political communications hard to censor is also used for commerce and chatting to friends. You can't shut down the one without shutting down the other. This makes the network very strong, because people may not be bothered about some nutjob's right to express his political views, but mess with their ability to share pictures of their cats and THE STREETS WILL RUN RED WITH THE BLOOD OF REVOLUTION.
This largely depends on how many people are willing to go on streets and start shooting at police and military troops because they cannot share lolcats in internet. And how victoriously they could do it without being defeated. For this to happen the situation in other aspects of society must be as bad too. This is why all regulations, censorship and taking away civil liberties are done slowly and in small increments.
Quote
What do you think they are doing with all that power?  Breaking codes, matching hashes, the same kind of thing Bitcoin miners do.
Mass surveillance of both domestic and foreign population. Datamining and storing every communication for eternity.
Quote
Also, they could hack into any exchange they want...
Bullshit. Everyone who knows about computer security will agree that there is no such thing as guaranteed hackability. This is why Pirate Bay was physically raided and taken away and not hacked from NSA or FBI every time it resurfaced.
Quote
Of course countries ran by authoritize regimes (China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, etc etc) would probably try to take a hardline approach on something like bitcoin if it undermined their power or influence at all.
I think these countries might embrace Bitcoin instead as a weapon to destabilize USA monetary grip over world.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
They or other governments could I suppose. Although I don't see why they would want to.

It's starting to seem more and more likely though that most governments will embrace bitcoin  (or p2p crytpocurrency in general) and it will coincide alongside with fiat government issued currency.  As of right now I don't really see or fear a backlash of government towards bitcoin.

Of course countries ran by authoritize regimes (China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, etc etc) would probably try to take a hardline approach on something like bitcoin if it undermined their power or influence at all.
full member
Activity: 129
Merit: 100
I agree with OP.  What do you think they are doing with all that power?  Breaking codes, matching hashes, the same kind of thing Bitcoin miners do.

Also, they could hack into any exchange they want... surprised Gox hasn't been hacked more.
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
TBF a little bit of paranoia can be a good thing with a technology that's supposed to be censorship-resistant. Even if people in high places aren't particularly out to get you, there's a lot to be said for designing technologies that you could depend on if it turned out that they were.

I agree 100%.  However, the only people currently attacking bitcoin in any real way are those manipulating the MtGox market  prices.  The crashing is ruining consumer confidence, precisely at a time when we need stability and growth.

This has just shown that although Bitcoin is ready, the services surrounding it aren't.

sr. member
Activity: 352
Merit: 250
https://www.realitykeys.com
Paranoid much?  Get a grip guys, the US Gov doesn't give 2 shits about bitcoin.  Bankers aren't quaking in their boots, get over yourselves.

TBF a little bit of paranoia can be a good thing with a technology that's supposed to be censorship-resistant. Even if people in high places aren't particularly out to get you, there's a lot to be said for designing technologies that you could depend on if it turned out that they were.
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
Paranoid much?  Get a grip guys, the US Gov doesn't give 2 shits about bitcoin.  Bankers aren't quaking in their boots, get over yourselves.

The banks are freezing assets of exchanges that aren't following the rules... full stop.  KYC laws are serious business designed to help track down those performing questionable banking practices (money laundering, etc.).  US exchanges that follow the rules will be just fine.

There is a new type of bitcoin enthusiast that will quickly out number the crypto anarchist / libertarian gov. haters that have been trolling these boards for years.  They are finally bringing big money and legitimacy to bitcoin.  Stop trying to scare them off.

sr. member
Activity: 352
Merit: 250
https://www.realitykeys.com
They're the NSA.  If they wanted, they could spend <1% of their budget, have some nice 28nm ASICs fabbed and mass produced and take like 80% of the network.

Good news though.  They don't give a shit.

Agree, they don't give a shit. And by the time anybody does start giving a shit, Bitcoin will be used widely enough that people will get upset if anyone tries to disrupt it. This was also the genius of the early internet: The same technology that's to make dissident political communications hard to censor is also used for commerce and chatting to friends. You can't shut down the one without shutting down the other. This makes the network very strong, because people may not be bothered about some nutjob's right to express his political views, but mess with their ability to share pictures of their cats and THE STREETS WILL RUN RED WITH THE BLOOD OF REVOLUTION.

That said, if they were so minded it shouldn't cost a government (or anybody with a lot of capital who really cared) that much to take over the mining infrastructure. Done at scale in a competitive market, mining should be slightly profitable. If you're prepared to run at a very modest loss, or even zero profit, you should be able force up the block difficulty up and push the revenue per dollar spent on hardware / electricity down to the point where it becomes unprofitable for anyone else to do it. At that point (economically) rational miners would give up and you'd have the [marginally loss-making] mining business to yourself.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Couldn't some big gov entity just swallow up a bunch of ASIC wafers and get 51% that way? If a government really wants to kill Bitcoins, if the banks wants to kill Bitcoins, it shouldn't be too hard to get that type of computing power.

But they can not do it secretively, they will have to join the network and thus revealing their identity to have an impact, and this directly defeat the purpose of  existence of "No Such Agency".
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
Couldn't some big gov entity just swallow up a bunch of ASIC wafers and get 51% that way? If a government really wants to kill Bitcoins, if the banks wants to kill Bitcoins, it shouldn't be too hard to get that type of computing power.

unfortunately they cannot and would end up spending a billion dollars and end up with one of these

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