Topic: In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC - page 2. (Read 5629 times)

The 47 people could also include companies like second market that holds bitcoin on behalf of thousands of individuals, or web based wallets like circle, or the soon to be ETF (COIN) that will hold bitcoin on behalf of likely millions of investors.

About 0.05 if my calculations are correct.

Oh, look, someone is making more profit than me, it must be a Ponzi.

Hint: look at the dollar. Who's making the most dollars in the dollar system?

Exaclty, the very few people with the exclusive right to create money.

Bitcoin has no such special privileges. Everyone has equal rights in bitcoin.

These 47 individuals could include the exchanges.

There are many new coins out there, would you take the risk to invest in them?

First of all, this is not what a ponzi scheme is.

Secondly, as the price of bitcoin increases, the early adopters who have amassed a lot of bitcoin will gradually sell their bitcoin. Also as more bitcoin is distributed via block rewards the percentage of the total bitcoin that large holders own will decrease.

You also fail to make the connection between large holding of bitcoin and early adopters. Who is to say that some of these large holders are not independently wealthy and purchased a lot of bitcoin at current prices?

Lastly many of the addresses that have the most bitcoin "in" them are not held by individuals, but rather held by companies that hold bitcoin on behalf of others (mainly exchanges)

in 10 years, let's say 1BTC = 10,000$ 
% of people having 1BTC = 20% in USA, 0.1% in the all world

August 3, 2012: 46% of senior citizens in the United States have less than $10,000 in financial assets when they die

The whole process of distribution for the last year reinforces bitcoin state as nothing more than a Ponzi scheme. When the distribution is skewed very badly towards early adopters, they will have almost total control over the market. There are 47 individuals own 28.9% of the approximately 12 millions Bitcoins in existence so far and another 1000 own 21.5%, meaning that a slightly more than 1100 people control half of the entire market cap of the digital currency. And total about a million people own $10,000 or less worth. Those shareholders could manipulate arbitrarily. I think I'll keep my money elsewhere....

Very little people will own 1 btc ever.

Value is made up of dreams.

Lets dream together.

This is an interesting question. If bitcoin becomes heavily adopted, many late comers won't have more than 1 bitcoin I think. However, bitcoin needs to survive for 10 years without anything replacing it and needs to become more common. Lets hope it continues on an upward trend.

Lets dream.

dreams, dreams, dreams 

Indeed, if youve been here for a while and still dont own 1 btc.. you are doing it wrong.

 
Re: In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC

answer is: less than 1%.


 So, it would only be prudent and sage to speculate as much as is affordable
to hold them long term. Even $40 speculated for the long term might prove
just as wise as investing in Warren Buffet's stock decades ago.

 It's just silly not to dip one's toes into at least some "bits" of a bitcoin.

 But it would seem much more wise if possible to own and retain sole
possession of at least a single, whole bitcoin, if possible.

 Dollar-cost-averaging ones way in is one of the wisest methods of venturing
into any investments, currencies included.

 Even as little as $40 placed into bits of a bitcoin could end up being worth
more than one could likely fathom in a single decade.

 Invest in one's future. Or be a fool. Diversify and hedge your investments.

 Pay yourself first by investing for your long term future benefit.

 And learn to NOT trust anyone else to retain control or possession of your
own bitcoins as soon as possible. i.e. Be Your Own Bank with your bitcoin(s).


Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware!
 

I hope i can retire with my btc, its my only hope, the rest is just depression and missery.

Quantum computers are not going to be a problem to bitcoin, they might need to update the protocol a little, but bitcoin will not become worthless.

There have been many posts in the post proving you'd need the power of the entire GALAXY to power a computer that can crack bitcoin, even with the most efficient hardware possible, on the atomic level. So quantum computers won't be a problem. And even if they can somehow crack SHA256 (which i doubt), they would more likely attack banks and cloud storage before cracking bitcoin. So your money is not safe anywhere in that case. And we'd likely fall into complete anarchy if that were to happen. So even non-digital money (assuming that still exists by the time SHA256 is cracked) would not be safe.

WWIII, may happen, and maybe sooner than we think. If it's good or bad for bitcoin, remains to be seen. In my opinion, it may be bad on the short term, but good in the long term, especially if the dollar loses much of its power, regardless of america losing/winning the war.

Total economic collapse, probably good for bitcoin, depending on the speed at which it happens. If it happens so fast people can not buy bitcoin, than it's useless, but in that case we won't have any money at all, so we'd look for alternatives. Once the world finally rebuilds, we may consider bitcoin again, as we may have learned from our mistakes in the past.

Alien invasion, even if that happens, we will not know the effects. Not on bitcoin, not an any aspect of life. Knowing our governments, they would likely hide the fact that aliens ever visited us, and try to either diplomatically or by force get technology from them, and keep it for themselves. Especially military technology (alien spacecraft, weapons (both biological and firearms or more advanced weaponry), computer hardware and software, etc). Even if it somehow leaks, or if aliens roam around the earth, many people who are scared or stupid may be very racist toward them and anger them, and it may lead to all out war with aliens, which we will probably lose because aliens who invented ways to get here from large distances are probably way more advanced than we are.

well, first of all the data is theoretical and assuming bitcoin becomes world's most influential currency, this may or may not happen, and even if it does happen, it will likely take another 10~20 years. (for full maturity, it's still entirely possible for bitcoin to become worth $100.000 or so within one or two years, in the most positive scenario)

secondly, 7500 satoshi are fine for the bottom 20% of humanity, and are a vast improvement compared to the bottom 20% nowadays, but still you wouldn't be able to stay on par with western standards with just 7500 satoshi. To be safe i'd try to be at least in the middle class range, if you can.

Note that 80% of the world population lives on less than 10 dollars a day ($3650/year) The bottom 20% currently lives on about $1.25/day (456.25/year) (in fact i get more than that on student grants alone, per month!)

The distribution i predicted is less harsh for the poorer people of society, the wealth distribution is much more even than the current distribution, because bitcoin does not rip of the poor nearly as much as fiat does, however, poor people will still exist even with bitcoin, it will just be a little more acceptable for them because they can now engage in global economic activity without having to pay huge fees to western union or banks, or even having no bank and/or not even having the option to sell their labor to the international or even national market.

The best thing is, the poor people will be able to become much richer by providing interesting goods/services to the rich and the only 3 things they need is:
1) Creativity (offer something that does not exist yet in europe/america, but is interesting for us to have)
2) Internet, to promote your product internationally
3) A bitcoin wallet, to accept payment

Rich people (people with many bitcoin) will probably look for such novelty items (or services) just for the fun of it, and the poor people will be able to make himself a little richer by it. The gap between poor and rich will slowly start to fade.

Compared to todays standard, the people who have 7500 satoshi (assuming they either leverage some of their bitcoins by investing it into smart businesses or actually set up something of their own to generate some income) will still be better of than living on $1.25/day, but not so much better that they could survive in western europe with that amount of money.

That is the theory at least. The future may look different, nobody can know for sure.

It's just an indication that even tiny amounts of bitcoin may make you relatively (or absolutely) rich.

the problem is no one knows the fate of bitcoin in 10 years time. The best things we can do now is holding.

Bitcoin won't be mainstream in 10 years.

If Bitcoin reaches mainstream the percentage of people owning a certain amount of Bitcoin will not remain static but will slowly decline, because generally wealth tends to accumulate in a small group of individuals. You also have to take in consideration that over time coins are lost, which will have an impact once the supply of new coins drys up.

If mainstream adoption occurs, the percentage of people who own 1 Bitcoin or more will be extremely small. A reasonable estimate has been given by zimmah.