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Topic: India is the new economic leader of global south. And replacement for China?... - page 7. (Read 1324 times)

legendary
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Lets have a look at the stuffs around us, how many of them are Made in China?
China nickname is The World's Factory, from our phone to our underwear maybe made in China, yeah they able to produce anything in a massive quantity and cheap, for quality - dont ask lol.

If everything is made in China, then what the hell are all these other figures about?


It's like the Huawey phone, made in China with a CPU from Taiwan, memory and display from South Korea and Japan, lenses from Germany, and sensors from France, not to mention the materials not even 10% coming directly from China.
Nearly all the things in my kitchen are from Germany and Poland (maybe Hungary), the majority of clothes that are foreign come from Bangladesh India and Egypt, all cosmetics are also European, furniture is either from Osterreich or Sweden or even Romania, the whole China is manufacturing everything is a myth, if that would be the case what would all those 70 million in EU and 80 million in US do in manufacturing? Mint ordinals?

The only big advantage of India is the enormous population, but this can be a double edged sword, because 99% of those people are very poor and uneducated. The "poverty trap" is a big problem for India.

The actual advantage India has is that it hasn't pissed off every single of its neighbors and it's not nearly at war with every single country in east asia over this. While India has a beef with Pakistan, China has one with India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philipines, Malaysia, and not to mention Taiwan.
China grew perfectly and received investments when it wasn't trying to be a complete bully, now that the mask is off, it is the investment and there goes the manufacturing and trading.


 

sr. member
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Lets have a look at the stuffs around us, how many of them are Made in China?
China nickname is The World's Factory, from our phone to our underwear maybe made in China, yeah they able to produce anything in a massive quantity and cheap, for quality - dont ask lol.

I agree to someone above who said it will need decades to overthrown China as the most powerful economic country in Asia.
China gov can control everything because of their ideology but not with India.

India might be able to surpass China after the India gov able to slow down the population growth, eliminate the massive corruption, build more factories, provide a better education system and health care system including basic sanitation, reduce the pollution and many more.
legendary
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This is very much possible! Becoming a financial superpower is not a distant dream for India and it's very much on its way. The only challenge is beaurocray and red tape protocols that has become a mainstream system in India. If India is able to remove bureaucratic road blocks and the work culture of the government, it might as well become a military superpower along with financial prowess.

India has been a huge provider of quality human resources to the rest of the world for many years. If those quality human resources can be used for India's progress, that will become a blessing for the growth of India.

But this is just a possibility and we have many roadblocks to remove.

Yes, I agree that India has a lot of "peculiarities". please do not take offense, but there is corruption, there is clannishness, if there are a lot of poor people. But, uh. that's no reason to give up and not fight it. Remember China 30 years ago? Agrarian appendage of the world, with wild unemployment, very low standard of living, and no prospects were seen until investments went into China. And it turned out that from such a country, in 20 years you can build what China is now. India's situation today is MUCH BETTER than China's was back then. And the issue here is not just financial, but economic and political power. Money will most likely be a derivative of the political and economic weight achieved on a global scale

I do agree with you. India has the possibility to become a financial super power. But the political system and the bureaucracy is slowing us down. A lot of things need to be sorted but we are on the right track. Things are improving, slowly but surely.

If the current government stays in power for next couple of years, I personally won't be surprised if India becomes an economy of  5 trillion dollars. We are on the right track.
sr. member
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India is the new leader of the global south .... And a replacement for China ?

So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?


The political stability of any country has a profound impact on its economy and India has been very fortunate in this regard. I think India is seeing a lot of growth, especially in the IT sector. You can judge the quality of education from the fact that you will often find Indians at the head of large international companies in the world.

India is also experiencing industrial growth and new businesses are being started. India is growing a lot in mobile companies and car manufacturing companies , it is also growing in technology. Recently, India had a successful experience in launching a space mission to the moon, Which shows that he is making progress. It is possible that India will replace China in the next few years and has the potential to challenge a big economy like China.
legendary
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India has a LONG way to go in order to replace China and it definitely is not YET the "economic leader".

However, what may happen in the future is that as China moves more into the high tech productions and as the Western problems with China grows, they start moving some production to India considering that the Western countries are not capable of producing any of these things domestically. That would give India an edge.
We all know that this itself is a big problem for India because unlike normal countries, the Western countries see any kind of economic growth as a threat! After all that is why they have problems with China. So we can already predict that the same Western countries that "allow" India to grow will try to slow down that growth and keep it to the levels they like.

But this hasn't happened yet and it also requires a lot of other things specially as the World Order is changing and if India keeps making mistakes (like the most recent one with the Arab-Med corridor) the economic consequences of it could push them back by a lot.

The West does not see the economic growth of ADEQUATE countries as a threat. Chinese economic growth is about game breaking, technology theft, manipulation and government interference in business. Plus support for dubious regimes (Iran, North Korea, Russia,...). So there is no need to hide all factors here and give away just one Smiley It is this set of "factors" that was the trigger for the imposition of certain restrictions on China by the western world.
And it seems to have had an effect, because China understands perfectly well that without the Western market, without Western technologies, and without dollars, it will slip back into the past, plus it will have a huge number of embittered, deprived of freedoms local population. It is precisely because of the absence of such problems and prospects that India looks much more attractive to the world economy. And the country itself deserves the right to become a more significant player!
legendary
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India is the new leader of the global south .... And a replacement for China ?
It takes a long time to compete in economic terms between India and China, that is if you talk about the economy, but if you talk about population, maybe there could be a change in India and China, in terms of birth rate maybe India is increasing compared to China, but it's not about the economy that's far away.

As I saw in one source today (09/11/23), which stated.
India is the new economic leader of global south. And replacement for China?..

India's long process can surpass and surpass China.
legendary
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This is very much possible! Becoming a financial superpower is not a distant dream for India and it's very much on its way. The only challenge is beaurocray and red tape protocols that has become a mainstream system in India. If India is able to remove bureaucratic road blocks and the work culture of the government, it might as well become a military superpower along with financial prowess.

India has been a huge provider of quality human resources to the rest of the world for many years. If those quality human resources can be used for India's progress, that will become a blessing for the growth of India.

But this is just a possibility and we have many roadblocks to remove.

Yes, I agree that India has a lot of "peculiarities". please do not take offense, but there is corruption, there is clannishness, if there are a lot of poor people. But, uh. that's no reason to give up and not fight it. Remember China 30 years ago? Agrarian appendage of the world, with wild unemployment, very low standard of living, and no prospects were seen until investments went into China. And it turned out that from such a country, in 20 years you can build what China is now. India's situation today is MUCH BETTER than China's was back then. And the issue here is not just financial, but economic and political power. Money will most likely be a derivative of the political and economic weight achieved on a global scale
hero member
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1.I don't see China openly surrendering any positions. Maybe you could elaborate more on where do you see China surrendering their economical and political positions. China has some internal problems with big debts and a real estate bubble, but their economic growth will continue to be one of the highest in the world.
2.Can't you just compare the GDPs of India and China. India is far behind China and it won't become an economic leader anytime soon.
China has natural resources like rare minerals. I don't know about India having any natural resources. The only big advantage of India is the enormous population, but this can be a double edged sword, because 99% of those people are very poor and uneducated. The "poverty trap" is a big problem for India.
sr. member
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To be the "factory of the world", there are basic conditions that must be met in terms of infrastructure, electricity, legal legislation, taxes, trained and cheap workers, and the ease of starting a business, all of which are things that China excels at. However, India is making rapid mistakes. From a country that does not have electricity to a country that exports electricity, and from a country that transactions are paper-based and corruption is at a high rate for a country with high governance, but they still need trained workers and to persuade companies to enter the market. Therefore, within 10 to twenty years, India will be one company if it continues with the current steps.
sr. member
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...

So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?

To be honest, I rarely follow the development of the Indian economy, but from some data that I have noticed, currently India has the largest population in the world, apart from being the largest, they also have other advantages such as citizens of high productive age - low wages - high job competition. so that many people will work properly there - low production costs - quite good relations with many countries except China - many people who have technological skills come from India, resources like this really make India full of potential become one of the countries with the strongest economy in the world in the future, they will definitely be able to do that if only their leaders are consistent and their political currents are good enough.
legendary
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The predictions are like that but it still takes quite a long time to achieve what was predicted for more than half a century and of course, it will actually happen if India can make changes in terms of bureaucracy and other things that are really needed to support the country becoming a new economic power in the world.
India has an advantage in population, unlike some developed countries which are starting to experience problems because their population is starting to decline like Japan and several other European countries, if India can maximize this then it will be easier for them to become economic leaders in the south first and if they can innovate more compared to China, it was only after that that it was able to emerge as a leader in terms of the world economy.
legendary
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India has a LONG way to go in order to replace China and it definitely is not YET the "economic leader".

However, what may happen in the future is that as China moves more into the high tech productions and as the Western problems with China grows, they start moving some production to India considering that the Western countries are not capable of producing any of these things domestically. That would give India an edge.
We all know that this itself is a big problem for India because unlike normal countries, the Western countries see any kind of economic growth as a threat! After all that is why they have problems with China. So we can already predict that the same Western countries that "allow" India to grow will try to slow down that growth and keep it to the levels they like.

But this hasn't happened yet and it also requires a lot of other things specially as the World Order is changing and if India keeps making mistakes (like the most recent one with the Arab-Med corridor) the economic consequences of it could push them back by a lot.
sr. member
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(...)So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?
Even though I love the people and culture of this country very much, I don't think they can compete with China. Although the development potential is huge, as they have human resources, resources, and intelligence from the people here... but it is not enough for them to compete economically with China.

Some things that I am not sure are completely true, as disagreements within India's religious culture in maintaining caste discrimination will be a big challenge for them to rise to outstanding positions. , typically the gap between rich and poor in this country, and urban planning issues. I really hope to travel to India soon, to be able to experience and feel the reality of their lives, from the pictures that my friends shared before, some things that I admire are that they have a very impressive history, but the economic issue is not praised much, but it is easy to admit that they are developing very quickly.
legendary
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Not yet at least. But the general direction is probably going there. With China's labor cost going up higher and India becoming one of the main options for companies exiting China, the potential is there. Not to mention that India is already an industrialized country, its people very able to cater the needs of a globalized world with its English proficiency, its socio-political environment much healthier, and so on.

It doesn't help that China's economy is imploding and its huge real-estate market seems to be in a state of crisis. Problems are rising in the red country.
legendary
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It will take a while before India replaces China in terms of mass production and exports. The country is rich in manpower and a lot of countries and huge companies are supporting the country in a lot of ways (albeit the CCP being hostile and bully to other countries, lol). Whereas in India, they may be excelling in terms of technology and outsourcing, but they just can't match the sheer volume of how China manufactures things. They will always be the second best behind China, and that's an unfortunate fact for decades to come unless other nations decide to invest on India's infrastructure.
legendary
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India has always been an eternal "prospect" and will not stop being so, but China is in simple terms the undisputed leader of that area (second overall, GDP) despite the sensations that post-Covid and some other political and economic nuances leave us. As mentioned, in today's reality, these sensations are erased with official numbers, currently the Indian economy has a rebound of 6.8%, but post Covid all economies reflect positive values and it is merely reasonable.

legendary
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Nope, and it will take a few more decades for India to achieve the manufacturing ability of China.

But Western countries realized it years back and that is why they have been moving their part of manufacturing plants to India since post Covid era. For example, Apple invested and started their manufacturing plants in India so that in the future they won't be trapped under China's monopoly but as of now most of the core level technology is still imported from China to India for example semiconductors and over time things may change.

It would be silly of me to insist that it's a matter of a year or two, I agree. But, uh. And China has been on its way to that status for decades. And it's all been sustained by Western investment, direct and indirect. Today China, as it seems to me, is overestimating its current status, and has begun to behave... how can I put it softer, let's say "arrogant" and consider itself a necessary part of the world economy, a part for which there is no substitute and will not be. at the same time, I see the main problem of China in its internal "restructuring" focused on the usurpation of the economy by the state, which destroys the free, competitive economic model, and will lead to stagnation of private business in the country. And it is India that can take advantage of this, and with the help of Western investors, pull a significant part of what China gave to the world market. But yes, it's going to take more than one year. Probably a period of 5 to 10 years or more.
full member
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India is the new leader of the global south .... And a replacement for China ?

China has recently started to openly surrender its position. both politically and economically.
politics is not the place to discuss, but the economy leaves much to be desired. Although it is partly a consequence of politics Smiley)

But to the main point - in the "Global South" today there is a situation when yesterday's leader, China, can no longer fulfill this role (although it wants to), and no one can take this place except India, due to many reasons.

At the same time, India looks much more attractive to the "Global West" than China, which has decided to go into a dictatorship inside, and has a rather dubious foreign policy. China has ceased to be a profitable global factory, plus purely political contradictions with the West. It was the outflow of Western investments, and the decline in demand of the Western market for products manufactured in China, that became the catalyst that accelerated the 3 processes:
- Import growth
- Reduced exports.
- And as a consequence, a shrinking trade surplus.

At the same time, a very complicated situation is brewing inside China with a chain of bankruptcies of budget-forming companies. Of course, China will hide it, but as they say "you can't cheat arithmetic, and 2+3 will never be 10". Another problem is the relocation of Western assembly sites from China. Large regional high-tech companies are also leaving Chinese sites - for example, Samsung.

And guess where all this is moving to ? That's right - to INDIA ! Stable, predictable, adopting the Western vector of development, and moving away from contacts with "dubious countries". India does not "beat in hysterics of dedolarization", does not conduct dubious negotiations, and does not support economic terrorism of some other countries against the world economy. India benefits from stability, long-term mutually beneficial relations with the developed world, a well-deserved place in the world economy and financial system, and realization of its regional ambitions, which China is beginning to lose by failing to implement 2 projects:
- "Yuanization" of the BRICS countries
- An attempt to "put the same BRICS club members on the needle" of importing Chinese products.
It was a poorly concealed but absolutely understandable attempt to save the economy, but ...

What about India? A country with a huge territory and great human potential, developed industry, and long-established ties with the Western world. India has a very good education, and not a small middle class, with good education from western educational institutions. In India, stealing Western technology is not part of the economy as it is in China, for example. In terms of logistics to EU and African countries, India is more conveniently located. Plus in India there is no problem of population aging, which started to give itself in China "thanks to" the policy - "one family - one child". It is also worth paying attention to the IT market - it is perfectly developed in India and continues to compete with other markets. Plus - wiser, more balanced and liberal business policy is what China is losing and will not contribute to the free development of the economy.


So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?

I don't think I will entirely agree with your assertion about India being the leader of global south especially when it comes to economy and other innovations. Statistically China has all the potentials of a world power both economically and social political. Population wise, India can say they are pursuing china but when it comes to other innovations, they cannot stand toe to toe with china.
legendary
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I don't quite see India on it's way to replacing China as the West's new manufacturing powerhouse yet. For now it seems more like a matter of companies hedging their bets, given the fragility of the supply chain that was unveiled by Covid and China's labour cost slowly catching up.

Still, India seems in a far better position then just a decade ago. Give it a few more years and we'll see who comes out on top.
legendary
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So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?


This is very much possible! Becoming a financial superpower is not a distant dream for India and it's very much on its way. The only challenge is beaurocray and red tape protocols that has become a mainstream system in India. If India is able to remove bureaucratic road blocks and the work culture of the government, it might as well become a military superpower along with financial prowess.

India has been a huge provider of quality human resources to the rest of the world for many years. If those quality human resources can be used for India's progress, that will become a blessing for the growth of India.

But this is just a possibility and we have many roadblocks to remove.
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