Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply - page 6.

STT

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Quote from: Stakeey on August 18, 2019, 06:57:41 PM

That being said, isn't bitcoin essentially a short on the inflationary nature of fiat ?

Its an interesting idea but we have a opposing possibilities here. First Bitcoin is expanding in price because the rate of change in FIAT is greater then BTC which has a reducing amount available each year. Presuming both have at least equal demand for payment usage, etc.
   However there is also the idea that Bitcoin as an emerging technology and not yet established by its own revenue and regular business quite yet, like many internet type startups its actually benefiting from the loose monetary outcome which allows cheap financing to occur and encourages risk based investment. The base rate being so low right now, establishes the safest money with little returns and especially if we consider personal inflation experienced might be far higher then measured or stated by government for GDP purposes.
  This low base rate encourages risk taking, what could happen is as dollar falls it actually becomes more difficult to gain interest in risky projects. The flow of excess easy money from base rates that do not match or surpass inflation could reduce, this brings us back from inflation to a currency standard in decline. Many people presume well Dollar will pass its business onto BTC but thats not a given, its not even likely imo.

What I think is most likely is that if we are talking about Dollar being replaced, is that another FIAT standard takes over. This could be another nation with alot of trade done or it might be an agreed standard similar to EURO. EURO is weak but it is at least backed by Germany in part, so I don't see that as failing so much but it might be challenged and not seen as worthy as taking over from dollar. The point being if BTC loses its source of excess dollar funding it could be more challenged in price, not directly inversely proportional to Dollar decline. I don't believe it will be that simple, alot of money will likely go into gold and many different standards.
   The ultimate result of inflation, loose standards and debt which fails to repay its principal value is a deflationary effect, this could be a harsh winter for BTC.

I don't think that scenario is any time soon but inflation means instability and its hard to predict the outcomes, there's not a certain winner. Likely all of society will suffer some losses, inflation especially when its out of control is not a positive.

Polo7

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Inflation is When economy is Up!

When economy is bad and we have regression zone then we have low inflation rate.

Its Constant Economic Circle, economy Up and down Up and down....

Everytime When we want to boost economy Again and Again we print More money economy is going better inflation rate are going higher prices are going Up... And debt is growing bigger and bigger.

BUT NOONE SEEMS TO BE paying back the debt..

BUK2016

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Quote from: kannikaamudee on July 06, 2019, 12:52:07 AM

If youre living in the developing nation, Inflation is just a normal thing

Which part of the developing country are leaving that do take inflation as a normal thing to them? Inflation has a both positive and negative effect on the economy and the people leaving in a country that are unable to control there inflation pressure in there economy, and I don't believe any developing countries will take inflation as a normal thing to them.

SamantaDark

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Man, thank you! It was super useful. I just found out this topic from Google Search and didn't expect that this will be so useful.

Scheede

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Love is the answer

There was a nice and easy understandable read by Peculium-team covering the inflation-issue (more or less global):

Quote

In our first part we explain how inflation is melting away your savings where the inflation rate is higher than the interest rate you receive on your savings.

Now that you know about the problem, we are also here to provide you with the solution!
____

How to beat inflation with AIEVE – Your Artificial Intelligence companion for a brighter future:

https://peculium.io/blog/how-to-beat-inflation-with-aieve-your-artificial-intelligence-companion-for-a-brighter-future
____

As a reminder, here you may find the article explaining inflation vs. interest-rates: https://peculium.io/blog/does-it-still-make-sense-to-put-money-into-a-savings-account

Source: https://t.me/peculiumANN/340

Definitely a topic, that A) near to nobody learns about in school and B) is an quite important factor when speaking about savings/values in future etc., thus B) that everybody should (at least superficial) should be aware of.

Polo7

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We have around the World Economic regression.
So but btc price is 10k.

If the Government and banks Will start printing money Again the btc price Will Go high.

Just Think about that Economic regression times the assets are cheap so the btc is cheap Now... Once the European USA uk Will cut rates and printing money the btc price Will be at least 30k.

Just Think about the fact that in a Economic correction times we have assets all ready expensive but not as expensive as They could be

Stakeey

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That being said, isn't bitcoin essentially a short on the inflationary nature of fiat ?

mayureeana

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Inflation is just a normal in developing countries, but if this inflation is already uncontrollable, it's not just an infalation, it's now called hyper inflation, just like what happened in venezuela, but thanks in cryptocurrency to save their collapsing economy. anyway, venezuela is not totally recovered yet

Steven123301

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Quote from: thefiniteidea on February 02, 2013, 05:57:48 PM

An area dedicated to discussing the differences of these two terms and the theories supporting them.

I'm looking forward to an in-depth discussion on the subject! I've noticed that confusion between the two seems to come up quite a bit on the forum, and thought it may be reasonable to dedicate a thread on the matter.

Pulled from a discussion in Wall Observer

Price-Deflation is what you are used to hearing about in Bitcoin. That term is used to describe the prices of goods/services as they decrease, because the value of Bitcoin goes up.

Price-Inflation is the opposite. When prices of goods/services increase because the value of Bitcoin goes down.

So, when dealing with Price-Inflation or Deflation, there is an inverse relationship of price and value, in regard to goods/services and Bitcoin.

Example: As the Bitcoin price goes from $10 to $20, the prices of goods/services goes down from 20BTC to 10BTC. As the Bitcoin price goes from $20 to $10, the prices of goods/services goes from 10BTC to 20BTC!

Why does the price of Bitcoin go up and down? The price of BTC goes up and down based on the exchange rate, or market price, which is set by buyers and sellers, or traders. They directly trade the Bitcoin currency with all sorts of other currency, and even some with gold; the most popular being the USD (US dollar). They set the price when executing orders to buy or sell. I will get into the actual reason of why the price fluctuates in the last section.

Now that we've gone over PRICE Inflation and Deflation (which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies), let's go over the REAL inflation/deflation of a currency (otherwise known by many as Monetary Inflation).

MoneySupply-Inflation is when the value of Bitcoin decreases when the total supply of Bitcoin increases. In our current state, this is at a generation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes.

MoneySupply-Deflation will essentially never occur. It is when the value of Bitcoin increases when the total supply of Bitcoin decreases. This may happen, say, when someone loses their private key and all the BTC associated with it are lost. This effectively "makes the rest of us richer". That being said, there is a SET DECREASE in the generation rate of BTC, so you have sort of a "deflationary effect" in the value, as long as more exchange occurs for BTC at a rate which is faster than that set generation rate.

When all 21 million coins are produced, the MoneySupply will be neutral, and the value will continue to increase (prices will decrease, consequently), as long as people continue to exchange in BTC.

This leads me to the last section.

What determines the PRICE of Bitcoin? The VALUE of Bitcoin at a particular moment.

What determines the VALUE of Bitcoin? The SUPPLY and DEMAND of Bitcoin in the economy.

What determines the SUPPLY of Bitcoin? Currently, the MoneySupply-Inflation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes, and traders willing to SELL Bitcoin to BUYERS in exchange for other supplies of money (currencies).

What determines the DEMAND of Bitcoin? Traders willing to BUY Bitcoin from SELLERS in exchange for other currencies.

Therefore: BUYERS, SELLERS, and MONEYSUPPLY-INFLATION (miners) determine the VALUE of Bitcoin, which determines the PRICE of BTC as BUYERS and SELLERS trade based on that VALUE (or supply and demand) of Bitcoin.

We don't exactly know the totality of the supply and demand. Sure, we could try and aggregate data from all the exchanges, but we will never be accurate as there are exchanges which can not be accounted for (OTC). The cool thing is that we DO know the MoneySupply rate, and we DO know the exchange rate. From this, we can determine a real value of Bitcoin when simply multiplying the two factors; a sort of inflation-adjusted view of the currency.

Effectively, the quantitative analysis of supply and demand is really what the currency exchange traders attempt to accurately determine which is conveyed through buying and selling of Bitcoin, setting a VALUE via the PRICED exchange rate of the currency. On a side note, most of the big Market Makers (FX Traders) use this price movement as a way to make a profitable living, as well. Especially when price fluctuations are a consequence of hype or fear (bubbles, cliffs), not factual supply/demand data, and are wildly out of the real price range.

Thus, if you analyze the proper macroeconomic data in an attempt to forecast future DEMAND for more Bitcoin (price increase), you will realize some very interesting things, and have a more accurate picture of where the price is going...

Happy trading! Wink

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kannikaamudee

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If youre living in the developing nation, Inflation is just a normal thing

Lifestudent38

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Quote from: Rishblitz on July 01, 2019, 08:55:34 AM

come to think maybe that reason the price has going straight down it is because a lots of people have bought some bitcoin, and hold 'em for sometime, If no one uses a crypto then they won’t have any value like that.

Or perhaps its market makers taking profits?

Think about it - I own a shop and buy a tomato for $1.00, now I need to sell for $1.35

In the case of market makers its a bit on the reverse side - I sold a tomato for $1.35 now I need to repurchase it for $1.00

Also read the top post - something about supply and demand and all that jazz.... uhm If someone is buying a BTC does that warrant demand > supply because to actually demand and buy 1 BTC there has to be an equal supply of 1 BTC sold... so demand always equals supply Huh

Rishblitz

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come to think maybe that reason the price has going straight down it is because a lots of people have bought some bitcoin, and hold 'em for sometime, If no one uses a crypto then they won’t have any value like that.

cipherer

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the enlargement of crypto-currencies (in case of Bitcoin the forks?!) will result in dilution. From an economic point of view = inflation.
Did I miss this in the analysis?

STT

legendary

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Quote

in Order to somewhere is life the Other side must Die!!
in Order to Something has value it must come from sacrafices.

This doesnt have to be true, its true in zero sum trading but the wider world actually allows for real growth to occur and it does. The Federal reserve have a strange policy of confusing growth with inflation and so they always require and want inflation to be occurring and believe they have achieved their target so long as that is true.
I can appreciate they want an orderly market not sharply changing prices but always inflation in fact represents instability like as if Bitcoin only ever went up every day, it show as massive volatility from an always changing price where as normally we retract and even go sideways and hold prices so its not the positive people might expect

Comparative advantage says we gain genuinely where both parties have a lower means of production for exchanged items. There is no sacrifice in this trade, its part of the headlines now. Is what Trump doing actually correct for the country in trying to reduce the flow of goods from China and other places or not.
The immediate effect is to deny or to raise good price to the country raising tariffs which is a negative.

Value can actually rise for all, many countries can benefit from trade. Its one of the most positive things about Bitcoin that it might allow trade that otherwise would be restricted or too costly and cumbersome to take place.

yohananaomi

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Quote from: Gravel Coin (GRV) on April 26, 2019, 12:17:25 PM

In a simple view, if the mean of payment has its unities multiplied in excess of a balanced relation to goods/services in a given market, then it is obvious that its intrinsic value will decrease; that would drive inflation upwards. In the exact opposite way, we may think of deflation.

It is true what you say is that inflation is happening because more demand is compared to the existing supply, so if it happens the opposite will be deflation.

elisabetheva

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Quote from: BitcoinFani on March 05, 2019, 05:04:59 PM

i think inflation also affects the performance of the crypto currencies. To avoid confusion, There is no monetary deflation in the sense of money supply contraction. This should be taken into account when investing in bitcoin that every year inflation will take a certain percentage and should be included in we calculations

maybe we can disagree about inflation that is directly related to the crypto currency, in fact I feel that crypto is very independent of the development of fiat currencies. crypto stands alone and experiences different things if you want to also invest.

Gravel Coin (GRV)

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In a simple view, if the mean of payment has its unities multiplied in excess of a balanced relation to goods/services in a given market, then it is obvious that its intrinsic value will decrease; that would drive inflation upwards. In the exact opposite way, we may think of deflation.

leif22

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Quote from: navneet kaur on April 01, 2019, 06:01:58 AM

If we talk about Inflation, it occurs when the prices of goods and services rise, while deflation occurs when those prices decrease. This is the balance between the two economic conditions, opposite sides of the same coin are delicate and an economy can quickly swing from one condition to the other.

Except, where has there been deflation in the Western world in the last 5 years?

navneet kaur

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If we talk about Inflation, it occurs when the prices of goods and services rise, while deflation occurs when those prices decrease. This is the balance between the two economic conditions, opposite sides of the same coin are delicate and an economy can quickly swing from one condition to the other.

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Crypto$tar

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Quote from: BitcoinFani on March 05, 2019, 05:04:59 PM

i think inflation also affects the performance of the crypto currencies. To avoid confusion, There is no monetary deflation in the sense of money supply contraction. This should be taken into account when investing in bitcoin that every year inflation will take a certain percentage and should be included in we calculations

But we should take into consideration marketmaker’s job and other speculators

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