Really interesting offer you are providing us with here :-)
Is it possible for https://www.lanadas.com and https://www.dealerscasino.com as well?
I have previously used https://findfaircasinos.com for finding casinos with cashback bonuses, with great success I must say.
Topic: Insured gambling. Get Per Cent of your Net Loss back. (Read 2366 times)
Satoshi Dice's affilate program used to say it pays in real time... I checked again and now it says that earnings are made available to your account in the first week of each month.
Source:
https://satoshidice.com/affiliate-program/
Source:
https://satoshidice.com/affiliate-program/
@Dooglus I have checked most of the sites and in most the max bet for roulette is actually a lot less than 21BTC. The variance reduces (ie. you are less likely to get high wins like 2x), but the odds still favor you.
When does SatoshiDice payout the referral balance? Weekly or monthly? I have an affiliate now and I already paid him. But I have not got it in my balance. Do you know when I will get it? The site doesn't mention anything regarding it.
Your reasoning is correct. Probably they are doing so to attract people to their site. The odds are against the owner.
but you have to see that affiliate earnings can be negative too. So, it can cancel out future positive earnings.
For simple calculation take house edge = 1% and bet = 1BTC, affiliate pay rate = 25%
Win chance = 49.5% Win = 1BTC Product= 49.5
Lose chance = 50.5% Loss = 1BTC Affiliate reward = 0.25BTC Net loss = 0.75BTC Product = -37.875
Average = 11.625/2 = 5.8125%
It is only a short term incentive to promote their site.
NGR can be negative or positive. Only the NGR at the end of the month counts.
The people who actually play after being referred by someone is very low. So, the odds are actually in favour of the house as long as less than 17.2% of the amount wagered is through referrals. (17.2 % is for 1% odds.) In theory.
@moreia I have no idea what you are talking about. You have to understand that there are 3 different affiliate systems: based on wagered as in PD, based on NGR and CPM(for very very highrollers). So you are talking about the first or second?
When does SatoshiDice payout the referral balance? Weekly or monthly? I have an affiliate now and I already paid him. But I have not got it in my balance. Do you know when I will get it? The site doesn't mention anything regarding it.
Your reasoning is correct. Probably they are doing so to attract people to their site. The odds are against the owner.
but you have to see that affiliate earnings can be negative too. So, it can cancel out future positive earnings.
For simple calculation take house edge = 1% and bet = 1BTC, affiliate pay rate = 25%
Win chance = 49.5% Win = 1BTC Product= 49.5
Lose chance = 50.5% Loss = 1BTC Affiliate reward = 0.25BTC Net loss = 0.75BTC Product = -37.875
Average = 11.625/2 = 5.8125%
It is only a short term incentive to promote their site.
NGR can be negative or positive. Only the NGR at the end of the month counts.
The people who actually play after being referred by someone is very low. So, the odds are actually in favour of the house as long as less than 17.2% of the amount wagered is through referrals. (17.2 % is for 1% odds.) In theory.
@moreia I have no idea what you are talking about. You have to understand that there are 3 different affiliate systems: based on wagered as in PD, based on NGR and CPM(for very very highrollers). So you are talking about the first or second?
You're missing the point. These sites survive off tiny edges. 1%, 2%. If they give you 5% back when you lose, that's +EV for you. And apparently some give 40% back when you lose!
Actually you're wrong, they lose 5% of the 1%, not 5% of the house edge.
Say im the admin, a user rolls 2.5BTC @ 2x and the number = 49.7, affiliste gives back .1BTC to the user, this would mean i lose 0.025% of my 1% house edge, not 2.5%.
Doesn't necessarily need to be loss from the house edge, but i'm sure you see what i mean.
I'm not quite following your math there. 5% of 2.5 BTC is 0.125 BTC. That's what they would pay to the affiliate if I lose a 2.5 BTC bet isn't it?
So when I bet 2.5 BTC at 2x, I have a 49.5% chance of winning 2.5 BTC, and a 50.5% chance of losing 2.5 BTC and getting 0.125 BTC back, for a net loss of 2.375 BTC.
With me so far?
My expected profit is 2.5 times 0.495 plus -2.375 times 0.505.
>>> 2.5*0.495 - 2.375*0.505
0.038125
So my expected profit on a bet of 2.5 BTC is 0.038125 BTC.
>>> 0.038125 / 2.5 * 100
1.525
That means the house edge is effectively -1.525% : the odds are in my favour by 1.525%.
So where am I wrong? Can you point out what step in my reasoning is faulty please?
Bonus policies always seemed weird to me. So according to what you said, if one does not reach the required bets after 30 days (let's say he claimed a bonus of 0.3 for this example) the 0.3 BTC bonus will be subtracted from his account but he gets the chance to keep and withdraw any winnings he made by betting with 0.6 BTC?
Yes, but since I've probably made 1000 bets of 0.1 BTC each by then, I'm very likely to have less than 0.6 BTC left. After they take off the 0.3 BTC bonus for being too slow, I have less than my 0.3 BTC deposit left.
Most casino bonuses I've played for give you a sporting chance of having your initial deposit left by the time you've cleared your bonus play-through requirements. This place seems like it doesn't. Then again I've not played at old-style casinos for many years now, so maybe they're all like this now.
Almost all casinos offer 20 to 50% of Net Gaming Revenue. eg. Bitstars.net, SatoshiBet
FortuneJack is an exception.
Is it still possible to create multiple ref link from one account?
FortuneJack is an exception.
Is it still possible to create multiple ref link from one account?
Only one link per account - but you can have lots of accounts.
If I click the bitstars link in your sig, what percentage of my losses will you pay me?
Edit: I checked out their "100% first deposit bonus": they'll double your first deposit up to 0.3 BTC but you have to play it through 35 times, and wagers only count 5% of their value unless you play slots, so that's 700 times, and the max bet is 0.1 BTC, so I'll have to make at least 2100 bets to claim my "free" 0.3 BTC - and I only have 30 days to do it, or they'll subtract the bonus amount from my account, and any losses I made so far come out of my initial deposit...
What a warm welcome!
So how's their affiliate scheme? If I make a single large bet on blackjack and lose, how much will you give me back?
Edit: "We know a good rate of commission is important. That's why we offer you the chance to earn up to 40% each month whether you are promoting Euro or Bitcoin gaming."
40% of what, exactly? What does "Net Gaming Revenue" mean?
Bonus policies always seemed weird to me. So according to what you said, if one does not reach the required bets after 30 days (let's say he claimed a bonus of 0.3 for this example) the 0.3 BTC bonus will be subtracted from his account but he gets the chance to keep and withdraw any winnings he made by betting with 0.6 BTC?
OP hasn't a fucking clue what he's talking about. He has displayed over and over that this is the case.
As for any other site, I'm sure the admins quite frankly don't give a damn if you refer yourself and get 5% of your loss back, they still have the 95%.
You're missing the point. These sites survive off tiny edges. 1%, 2%. If they give you 5% back when you lose, that's +EV for you. And apparently some give 40% back when you lose!
Actually you're wrong, they lose 5% of the 1%, not 5% of the house edge.
Say im the admin, a user rolls 2.5BTC @ 2x and the number = 49.7, affiliste gives back .1BTC to the user, this would mean i lose 0.025% of my 1% house edge, not 2.5%.
Doesn't necessarily need to be loss from the house edge, but i'm sure you see what i mean.
edit - i had a great post mapped out, sadly, phone crashed (thank you ios8!!)
i'll come back tomorrow with what i was going to say
1. I'm not going to play roulette if it's -EV.
2. "wins" means "payouts"? or "profits"? And what's the admin fee?
3. I didn't know if the 90% you PM'ed me was super secret or not, so I picked a number.
4. Maybe the issue is with the max bet. Can I bet 21 BTC on a single hand of blackjack?
1. They probably don't know that.
2. wins means payouts of a bet. To be clear : bets - wins = profit.
So equation becomes: (bets - wins – bonuses) – admin fee
Admin fee? No idea.
0% as given on http://www.askgamblers.com/casino-affiliate-programs/bitstars-casino-affiliates-review (i googled it)
3. 90% for highrollers.
4. idk. Can you check? (edited)
As for any other site, I'm sure the admins quite frankly don't give a damn if you refer yourself and get 5% of your loss back, they still have the 95%.
You're missing the point. These sites survive off tiny edges. 1%, 2%. If they give you 5% back when you lose, that's +EV for you. And apparently some give 40% back when you lose!
please visit these links:
The site usually just ban the user and the user usually doesn't make it public.
moreia, you are speaking from the customer's point of view, but if you read their policy, they can and will most of the time just ban the user.
However, Win88 is an exception
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/win88-fail-to-their-customers-again-scam-810861 (no ref winnings paid, because ip was same.)
The account had nothing in it. Winnings were withdrawn.
So no problem.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/win88-did-not-pay-me-26-792767
OP is edited later. It was a contraversial issue. All balance of all his accounts were forfeited and account banned.
It was later, after many days, and after much effort, he got it back.
Fairproof
as moreia knows, his account was held with its full balance because he used a bot which caused none whatsoever damage to the site.
So many examples out there. Most are just hushed up.
As regards to NGR and Referral based on wager, former is preferable. It depends on the site. PD etc. gives commission based on wager and some other sites, give it based on NGR or Net Gaming Revenue.
1. In that case you must use a proxy no one has used to create an account. Pretty big trouble to do it. There are other ways to track it. Most sites use withdrawal addresses etc.
2. 5%
It is usually 20% to 50% for most reputed sites. It does matter.
The site usually just ban the user and the user usually doesn't make it public.
moreia, you are speaking from the customer's point of view, but if you read their policy, they can and will most of the time just ban the user.
However, Win88 is an exception
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/win88-fail-to-their-customers-again-scam-810861 (no ref winnings paid, because ip was same.)
The account had nothing in it. Winnings were withdrawn.
So no problem.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/win88-did-not-pay-me-26-792767
OP is edited later. It was a contraversial issue. All balance of all his accounts were forfeited and account banned.
It was later, after many days, and after much effort, he got it back.
Fairproof
as moreia knows, his account was held with its full balance because he used a bot which caused none whatsoever damage to the site.
So many examples out there. Most are just hushed up.
As regards to NGR and Referral based on wager, former is preferable. It depends on the site. PD etc. gives commission based on wager and some other sites, give it based on NGR or Net Gaming Revenue.
Quote
1. PD "apparently" has this rule, easily bypassed with a proxy or VPN and a subtle username. Not that hard at all.
2. As for any other site, I'm sure the admins quite frankly don't give a damn if you refer yourself and get 5% of your loss back, they still have the 95%.
2. As for any other site, I'm sure the admins quite frankly don't give a damn if you refer yourself and get 5% of your loss back, they still have the 95%.
1. In that case you must use a proxy no one has used to create an account. Pretty big trouble to do it. There are other ways to track it. Most sites use withdrawal addresses etc.
2. 5%
It is usually 20% to 50% for most reputed sites. It does matter.And another point, why would we want a percent LOSS if we can still get what we wager back even if we win?? Should be whole wagered, not amt lost
If I have to chose between 40% of my losses or 0.4% of my wagered amount, I'd chose the 40% of losses.
If I win, I don't need a rebate. If I lose and get 40% back, that's massively +EV for me.
In the long term they're the same thing (assuming a 1% house edge). In the short term they're not.
Lol why this would use own ref acc...
coz admin check and you ban, the no money at all
They may:
A. Take your REF EARNINGS (not your deposit)
B. Stop your account from receiving anymore ref commission
They are not allowed to disqualify any money that you deposit and/or win gambling unless you are proven to be cheating the game, not the ref system
1. What 5%?
2. You don't need my service, don't post.
3. Referring yourself is against the site policy. You will get simply banned with your coins in or out of it. If you have been paying attention to this forum, you must have seen casinos (win88 is the most recent one) banning users for doing that. Most will not be public. And sites usually have a zero tolerance policy in such issues since such behavior will reduce their profits.
There are multiple ways (like bitcoin addresses) other than the ip that they check to confirm it.
VPNs: Unless you are sure that no one else have created an account with it, it is the same result.
2. You don't need my service, don't post.
3. Referring yourself is against the site policy. You will get simply banned with your coins in or out of it. If you have been paying attention to this forum, you must have seen casinos (win88 is the most recent one) banning users for doing that. Most will not be public. And sites usually have a zero tolerance policy in such issues since such behavior will reduce their profits.
There are multiple ways (like bitcoin addresses) other than the ip that they check to confirm it.
VPNs: Unless you are sure that no one else have created an account with it, it is the same result.
Find one site that states referring yourself is not allowed and post it here.
PD "apparently" has this rule, easily bypassed with a proxy or VPN and a subtle username. Not that hard at all.
As for any other site, I'm sure the admins quite frankly don't give a damn if you refer yourself and get 5% of your loss back, they still have the 95%.
And another point, why would we want a percent LOSS if we can still get what we wager back even if we win?? Should be whole wagered, not amt lost
yah, I'm thinking the same thing also
Lol why this would use own ref acc...
coz admin check and you ban, the no money at all
1. What 5%?
2. You don't need my service, don't post.
3. Referring yourself is against the site policy. You will get simply banned with your coins in or out of it. If you have been paying attention to this forum, you must have seen casinos (win88 is the most recent one) banning users for doing that. Most will not be public. And sites usually have a zero tolerance policy in such issues since such behavior will reduce their profits.
There are multiple ways (like bitcoin addresses) other than the ip that they check to confirm it.
VPNs: Unless you are sure that no one else have created an account with it, it is the same result.
2. You don't need my service, don't post.
3. Referring yourself is against the site policy. You will get simply banned with your coins in or out of it. If you have been paying attention to this forum, you must have seen casinos (win88 is the most recent one) banning users for doing that. Most will not be public. And sites usually have a zero tolerance policy in such issues since such behavior will reduce their profits.
There are multiple ways (like bitcoin addresses) other than the ip that they check to confirm it.
VPNs: Unless you are sure that no one else have created an account with it, it is the same result.
Find one site that states referring yourself is not allowed and post it here.
PD "apparently" has this rule, easily bypassed with a proxy or VPN and a subtle username. Not that hard at all.
As for any other site, I'm sure the admins quite frankly don't give a damn if you refer yourself and get 5% of your loss back, they still have the 95%.
And another point, why would we want a percent LOSS if we can still get what we wager back even if we win?? Should be whole wagered, not amt lost
idk. There is no flaw I can find..
They get a high roller.
They get a high roller.
Well, they get one bet from a high roller. I'm not going to play roulette if it's -EV.
Net Gaming Revenue = (bets - wins – bonuses) – admin fee.
"wins" means "payouts"? or "profits"? And what's the admin fee?
Average Expected revenue is : 3.746BTC
So your average expected profit is 3.371BTC (90%) [not 2BTC ]
So your average expected profit is 3.371BTC (90%) [not 2BTC ]
I didn't know if the 90% you PM'ed me was super secret or not, so I picked a number.
Maybe the issue is with the max bet. Can I bet 21 BTC on a single hand of blackjack?
Lol why this would use own ref acc...
Lol english' do it speak you fuc moth...
Are you asking why I wouldn't refer myself to that site?
I expect that would be against their terms and conditions. I don't want to give them an excuse not to pay out the 40% referral payment.
Lol why this would use own ref acc...
this is a nice idea but what if u lost say 0.001 BTC
commission would be less that 0.00001
how will i get a % of that, that amount is too small to be withdrawn
commission would be less that 0.00001
how will i get a % of that, that amount is too small to be withdrawn
Here's what I'm thinking:
I deposit 21 BTC, bet it on "red" on roulette.
18/37 chance I win 21 BTC
19/37 chance I lose 21 BTC, but they pay 40% of that back to you, and you give me 11 BTC, say.
So I've a 18/37 chance of being +21 BTC and a 19/37 chance of being -10 BTC.
My expected profit is 5.081 BTC.
Where's the flaw here? They seem to be giving a 40% rebate on a game with a 2.71% edge...
idk. There is no flaw I can find..
They get a high roller.
Net Gaming Revenue = (bets - wins – bonuses) – admin fee.
Is it against site policy or something? I don't think it is. It is the same effect if you clicked on my banner or my signature etc.
Average Expected revenue is : 3.746BTC
So your average expected profit is 3.371BTC (90%) [not 2BTC ]
Quote
18/37 chance you win 21 BTC
19/37 chance you lose 21 BTC, and i give u 7.56 BTC (90% of 8.2), say.
So I've a 18/37 chance of being +21 BTC and a 19/37 chance of being -13.44 BTC.
My expected profit is 3.371 BTC.
19/37 chance you lose 21 BTC, and i give u 7.56 BTC (90% of 8.2), say.
So I've a 18/37 chance of being +21 BTC and a 19/37 chance of being -13.44 BTC.
My expected profit is 3.371 BTC.
this is a nice idea but what if u lost say 0.001 BTC
commission would be less that 0.00001
how will i get a % of that, that amount is too small to be withdrawn
commission would be less that 0.00001
how will i get a % of that, that amount is too small to be withdrawn
Here's what I'm thinking:
I deposit 21 BTC, bet it on "red" on roulette.
18/37 chance I win 21 BTC
19/37 chance I lose 21 BTC, but they pay 40% of that back to you, and you give me 5 BTC, say.
So I've a 18/37 chance of being +21 BTC and a 19/37 chance of being -16 BTC.
My expected profit is 2 BTC.
Where's the flaw here? They seem to be giving a 40% rebate on a game with a 2.71% edge...
>>> 18/37 * 21 - 19/37 * 16
2.0000
this is a nice idea but what if u lost say 0.001 BTC
commission would be less that 0.00001
how will i get a % of that, that amount is too small to be withdrawn
commission would be less that 0.00001
how will i get a % of that, that amount is too small to be withdrawn
No commission then.
Commission can be upto 0.0005BTC.
But, it is still small.
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