Weekly update.
Hey guys, another week has passed unfortunately. This has been the worst week in terms of performance, that the fund has ever had. Sadly we landed on negative -6.07% for this week.
I want to start off saying I take partial blame for this week's horrible profit, I have been very busy and haven't had time/energy to update log books, optimize bots and manually flip/margin trade. This is something that I usually do on a daily basis, this week I simply didn't have the time or energy to do this as often as possible. Hence the normal advantage GBF has against other investment opportunities didn't apply for this week. As I feel that the loses are partially my fault I have decided to not take any admin fee for the next 2 up coming weeks. I hope this shows you guys that I am taking the fund seriously and that I take responsibility for the results of the fund, if I feel I have misbehaved or something being my fault.
With that said, I would also claim that it was not simple me slacking that made us land on -6% in profit, it was a combination of three events that happened in rapid succession. If one of these events would happen without the other two following we would be fine, but as all these three events happened almost at the same time (with one or two days between each other), this caused a panic in the market which would otherwise not have been so bad. Hence I admit I was not prepared for all of these things happening at once, that combined with that I didn't have the time to continuously checking the market lead to that my responses were a bit to late and instead of selling off for a lose I decided to keep the shares. Anyways let's start from the first event and then finish of with a analysis and a evaluation, it's important to learn from you mistakes
Last weekend, I was really happy. I had managed to get over 2000 GigaMining shares, for 1.26 BTC and managed to sell off 1000 of them for over 150 BTC in pure profit. I decided to keep 1100 of them as GigaMining shares were at the time stable at around 1.35-1.4 BTC and they were paying out big and regular dividends. This proved the be a bad decision, at least short term. The massive flooding of privately sold shares, created a lot of fuzz with the already existing public investors. When the information that several thousand Gigamining shares had been sold for cheaper then the normal 1.5 BTC, the investors got mad and felt like they had been tricked. This combined with that some of the big private investors started selling off shares for less then the face value lead to a panic. People realized that their shares were dropping in price and they started to sell off. This drove the price down to 1.3 BTC each, which was fine, we still had a good amount of support and I thought it was only going to be a short term dip.
The second event happened shortly after, the Bitcoin price started increasing, a rally was on the horizon. The price increased by 0.5$ from 5.1 to 5.6$ in just a couple of hours. According to my experience when the Bitcoin price increases, people start shorting and selling off on GLBSE as they believe they can make more profit on the market, using the exchanges etc, than they can on GLBSE. Also people that have been looking to sell off Bitcoins now spring into action, as the value of their Bitcoins have increased. This combined with the reaction of the other investors, creates another panic or a bearish attitude against the share prices. This drove on the already existing bearish attitude towards Gigamining driving the prices down even further into 1.2-1.25. Later on the price increased even more and hit the 6$ mark, this lead to more sell offs and the price hit a low of 1.1$.
As you can see the two events above lead to a small panic, and a very bearish attitude of the investors, why should I hold my shares when I can sell and get the cheaper later on. I held our shares, as I didn't want to sell at a loss, plus the dividends were still good and I thought they were worth holding. It was only going to be a short term dip, mid and long term the shares would increase in price again, this is something I still stand for but, now I don't think they will go up to 1.5 BTC but more a range of 1.2-1.3 BTC is possible, when the rebound happens. I also believe it will a longer time for this rebound to happen due to the third event. The third event, that led me to think that a increase in share price to the original 1.5 BTC is unlikely and the length of time this dip will last was increased, is the ASIC announcement. I am sure everyone has already seen them, if not basically BFL has announced that they are starting to design/produce new ASIC products that will wipe the floor with any current mining hardware. This ofc lead to a even further fall of the mining bonds due to that people thought there is no reason to hold 1 mhash if it will be worthless in a couple of months. The Gigamining price hit the 1BTC per share and has been pretty stable ever since.
My opinion of our current situation and the ASIC development, and on the mining bond price is that I will keep holding the bonds, at this moment I think they are underpriced due to the panic of the three events above, I think after a couple of weeks they will stabilize, at maybe not the same point as before but still around 0.26-0.28 BTC per mhash. If not then I still think they are worth holding simply for the dividend that are received from the mining bonds. This brings us into the ASIC topic, will it be worth keeping these mining bonds? Won't the ASIC make the current mining bond useless? I do not think so. I think that the ASIC technology is months away if not even half a year or more before first produce. Think about BFL single of the BFL mining rig, BFL likes to announce things before they are ready hence I am not to worried about the ASIC development.The FPGA has almost not effected out network speed at all, we are still nto above the 2011 high in network speed, hence I think it will take a long time might even be more then a year before we starts seeing big impacts on the difficulty due to ASIC. (
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.969114)
Evaluation, The losses this week were due to a low amount of management from me, which lead to old order books which in turn lead to unnecessary losses. It was also due to the three events mentioned above, what I would like to take from this is to always try to keep the order book refreshed and also don't go to heavy in one market in this case mining bonds.
As always I am very happy to take feedback and criticism, if you think I have acted badly then please say so. The only way I can get better and GBF can become more successful is if you guys give me feedback that I can take and work with
I also want to say thank you to all the understanding investors that has stood by me and helped me out in rough times
Thank you guys!
//DeaDTerra