Topic: Is Bitcoin bottom there yet? Fear & Greed, Pi Cycle Top / Bottom (Read 369 times)

Just sharing, not my work, but thanks for your kind words.

Glassnode just released a video

• Is The Cycle Top in for Bitcoin? - The Week On-chain 12, 2024 (Bitcoin Onchain Analysis)

Capital flows in must slow down as it can not be maintain at a same high inflow rate or speed up more and more, non-stop.

Grayscale ETF is facing with massive outflow and within only 2 days, its outflow is about $1B. If they won't reduce their service fee soon, their ETF will have nothing to manage when customers will all exit.

Thanks for posting the photo.

I think the drawdown won’t be as bad as the previous cycles because we have more liquidity now than before. If we keep dipping and say touch 30% or 40% I will start to get nervous and think that the $74K was indeed the top.

However we need to see the etf flows as time goes on. Will more people invest with bitcoin on the dip or are people only buying bitcoin etfs when we print new highs. So far yesterday we were -150M or so. Wondering what todays session brought.

From historic Bitcoin drawdowns in bull market, the current drawdown is still smaller than previous cycle. It is about -15% drawdown now and that equals to average drawdown.

I see chance that Bitcoin will have another downstair drawdown to about $51,000 to $53,000 before it completes a big correction for the mid-top of 2024 - 2025 bull market.

Bitcoin price history, ATHs and bottoms.

• https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/bf532ce2-a66b-4798-6deb-bf3ba7decc59

With the recent drop, can we consider it to be the bottom? We've seen the price did make out some correction and the drop is -10k, People or community been anticipating drops considering that we've been able to break those all time highs and creating one. So it would be normal that there would be corrections but are those drops that we are waiting for? For sure it won and people been expecting more deeper.

This is why actions be made would really be that depending on a certain individual whether they would really be positioning themselves or would really be waiting up for something more deeper.
Well, cant blame out considering that we would really be waiting into something more lower price and to have that maximize profitability.
It would be a matter of choice considering that movement of prices is always been that random and cant be known.

I don't think trying to time the dip works at all and if that's all you've got like waiting for the dip to buy then you woudl surely miss out on a lot of good opportunities to buy bitcoin and you would probably miss the dip that you are even waiting for, why not use the DCA strategy to buy bitcoin that way you would have less worries missing the dip and surely one of your weekly buys would be on a dip or if you have noticed that the price if bitcoin is on a decline you can set your DCA strategy to buy at more intervals at that period of time, and that way your average cost for buying would maybe sum up to the lowest dip price or even closer.

I sort of feel like the bottom of this correction isn't in yet, just because I'm not feeling emotional about it one way or the other yet.  Usually at the bottom of a correction I'm considering moving funds to an exchange to sell and feel sad like I missed out on what could have been.  I don't feel that way at all right now.  I'm just happy that we're above $50K and heading into the halving.  Even if we do continue to fall another 10-20%, I still think we're going to end up with a $100,000 BTC price by Halloween and possibly a $200K price a year from now.  So while I wouldn't fault someone for taking a little off the table, I still think we've got more gains in store over the next 18 months.

Yes, this I agree with and have maintained as an opinion since the ETF. For now, the ETFs will follow the market, not the other way around. At least until most Bitcoin held long-term is in ETFs rather than self-custody.


This time it still could be different, and arguably already has been different. That of making an ATH prior to the halving which has never happened before. But I think price aside, the dyanmics of the 4 year cycle will still play out, especially since the current recovery has been over 12 months, meaning there is a lot of room for 3-9 months of consolidation, starting with a correction.


Well you said 2022, not 2020, so wasn't that funny 


Even if you compare to 2024 to 2016, there's not a lot of difference. Namely a correction followed by correction prior to and after the halving.

The noise from Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, Grayscale won lawsuit against SEC, appearance of Black Rock changed a lot. Without them, we probably have Bitcoin lower than $50,000, not a new all time high before halving.

This is an expensive question and also lesson for many people. They naively think this time will be different, but the market, the psychology of market participants are not different. So mostly we don't have any different time.

Nope. I actually meant 2020 (the time this thread was created) and this year, when we surprisingly have a new all time high. I did it to make a funny question only.

I agree that to compare two cycles, it makes more sense to compare 2024 and 2020.

For sure, 2022 was a bear year. For me, 2024 is supposed to be a consolidation year (from the 2022 bear and 2023 recovery).

The fact we've massively overshot the recovery to new ATH doesn't change much for me.

Maybe you meant 2020 as the comparison...


Too early to tell, price could easily find support around $60K and return to new ATH. It all depends on ETF inflows at this point, more than anything. Technical analysis will confirm either way, but it will likely be a lagging indicator to some degree.  Namely, whether ETF inflows will outpace outflows, regarding GBTC selling. This wasn't the case in the correction from $48K when we saw more outflows, but with ETFs so fresh, it wasn't possible to make much of an assessment. Now we see another outflow day (though not major outflows compared to the major inflows we have seen), I suspect the inflows will be higher when trending up, and the outflows will be higher when trending down, at least until GBTC is flushed out the system. This would also be pretty usual for ETF activity of buying strength as opposed to weakness. There otherwise isn't a lot of GBTC left, but there is a enough that needs to be shifted. This backlog needs to be cleared out imo for a healthy uptrend, even if that only takes another month or two based on current holding and outflows.


That's an interesting chart not gonna lie. I had never considered these "mid-cycle" top signals, such as 2012, 2016 and 2019.

However there's something notably wrong about the analysis painted over this. It's assuming the first test of the 350 DMA*2 is the late stage top, as opposed to the mid-stage, as per every cycle. While it could be, we have never had a late stage top (ie, beginning of bull market) without a mid-stage. Secondly, just because the mid-stage came in 2019 last cycle, it has also previously been in 2012 and 2016, based on the 4 year cycle, it stands to reason that this is the mid-stage top. Note how the late stage top came late 2020 and early 2013 & 2017, as opposed to early 2020. So we're about 10 months off for this imo. Hence we've never seen the late stage top leading to a bull market pre-halving, so there is that as well, for those who still consider the 4 year cycle in tact despite the new ATH (a view I still subscribe to at least based on time).

I've otherwise been expecting a mid-stage top with a significant correction of around -50%, taking 3-9 months, since $48K (0.618 fib retracement level), even if price reached $80K etc. In hindsight, this chart would of been useful to see where a mid-stage top would more likely be. Interestingly, top cycle top indicator was the only reliable one in late 2021, compared to all the rest that pointed to further upside, so it shouldn't be ignored as random or otherwise. Either way, I'd say the chart is accurate in the sense that this is either the start of the bull market, or we're looking at a mid-stage considerable correction (in time and price).


This sums it up nicely. It lacks confirmation it's a late-stage top, at the moment it's speculative. I'm not sure what the confirmation of a mid-stage top would be, but personally it'd be breaking the current "immediate term" uptrend, proabably around $60K higher low, then we can see how strong the support is around $40K to $45K. Most people seem certain that we will never see $50K again which is worrying. Personally I think there is a reasonable chance, especially if this week confirms a new ATH fake-out similar to 2021 and $60K foesn't hold as support, as there's very weak volume support in between, ETFs aside.

Will consider making a poll/topic when/if we reach $60K to see if the sentiment is returning to new ATH or $50K. I suspect most people won't believe a correction is happening until it's already happened.

Two years and now we are back, but with a different market, it's bullish now.

The question now, in 2024 is different than in 2022

Is the market reached to its Top yet?  



If you want to look for more details, zoom in and zoom out, you can have a live chart with Lookintobitcoin.com.

• https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/
• The quote above is from CryptoCon

What do you think?

I think there is still bottom for btc which can be from 10k-15k because of inflation and some serious situation in world. In all seriousness, if we were just fighting inflation, I wouldn’t be so worried. But there are some real wild cards in the world today (war in Ukraine, China closed down, etc.) that Jay Powell has no control over. That makes it a very risky bet. That being said, I think there’s going to be another dip with some sideways movement for a while before we head back up again.

Exactly.

Monthly Relative Strength Index
RSI makes its peak in March and slightly fall in April when Bitcoin is around $65k. In November, even price rises to $69k, RSI is still very low and it can not make a double top (in RSI chart). So price can not increase more toward $100k or higher.

It's just the semantics though, but in any case, I think we all agree that we love to see the price somewhat climbing back to $23,000-$24,000 recently.

Regarding the question though if we have reach the bottom already, with the way the price is moving recently, who knows, maybe we have reach it at $17,500 or at least this year. We're already half of the year and maybe the next six month will be at least very friendly, especially hitting the last quarter.

What's wrong with the word rally? The rise in price was somehow sustained. It didn't happen very quickly. It lasted for around a week. From having a low of around $19,000 on the 13th, the price gradually climbed, peaking at around $24,000 on the 20th. Why can't we call it a rally? A price increase doesn't have to last for a month to be called a rally, does it? And considering that prior to that there wasn't any big movement for a month, it was indeed something of a rally.

A 3k up in price is decent so it can be considered to as a small rally while others call it as a relief rally but there are those who are not contented with it, that is why they aren't feeling pumped up or bullish with what bitcoin is showing lately. These past weeks the price have recovered and stayed from 20k.

This is already far from the bottom but what is close to bottom is the price we have last months ago, when btc reached 16k but I think that might be the real bottom already because why the price didn't drop further after that? I don't think we can go down again so if someone wants to buy, they should do it now as this can be the last call.

Very true, since the $69K fake-out I had considered $65K in April to be the "real top" as opposed to November. Aside from volume, other metrics also suggested it wasn't a cycle top, such as Weekly RSI that showed Bitcoin's price was bullish but far from overbought, in comparison to the multiple months where Bitcoin's RSI was overbought from around October 2020 to April 2021 (for 6 months approximately).

At least from previous cycle tops, they have always occurred after price has been overbought for weeks or months on high volume, as opposed to very low bullish momentum.

LMAO. Do people really call the recent price rise a 'rally'? With bitcoin's volatility, I see it as normal upside volatility.


I think this sums it up, no matter how much analysis we can do, no matter how sophisticated, there is always something that can slip through the cracks. What does seem clear is that we are, or have recently been, much closer to the bottom than we were months ago, but whether we will go down again or not, and whether we will pierce the previous low, I leave to the fortune teller.

Many are not feeling pumped up with the recent rally of Bitcoin. Despite Bitcoin surpassing $24,000, there are still a number of comments saying that the bottom has not yet been hit. So this recently rise could indeed be just another bear trap and the correction that follows will bring the price to its bottom. As of this writing in fact the price has already fallen below $24,000 and then below $23,000. This might be harder fall now.

I did not make that call. I hope you read what I wrote correctly.  

My call is bottom is somewhere around already for long term investors. Again, real investors, not speculators or gamblers who have no knowledge about Bitcoin, zero belief in Bitcoin, they are shit pseudo-Bitcoin investors.

Additionally, I emphasized clearly that if we skip all sorts of indicators, simply look at the price chart, it is very possibly to see Bitcoin drops back to $13k to $15k. It can drop there, stay there for months but it can be only a very flash crash, then V-shape recovery which triggers a new bull run.

I clearly mentioned that capitulation is different than panic sell or selling to cover temporary bills.

Yeah, when all shit is reflected in panic sell already and when panic is gone, sun will shine. We are in a black swan time, periodically after around 10 years. The world doesn't end after each ten years.

People saying  it wont drop again like a miracle just happenned and the world economy is back on its feet again, in reality China faces huge city/port lockdowns while its ready to invade Taiwan ( a huge economy at war/USA said it will defend Taiwan, most Asian countries depend on China to withold their economy...) EU is running out of NatGas and Oil, Sri Lanka is bankrupt, Pakistan will be left soon fighting a civil war without electricity, Esthonia/Italy goverment collapsed due to the economic crisis, west/south africa is in civil war, UK EU Australia USA mexico could deep in a recession with in the next year, Russia and Ukraine are at war, there is a global food sortage, Bubble assets (already burtsted, investors lost 11 trillions on investments, that fall had to happen since 2008), world dept is 305TN 355% the world GDP, more asset bubbles to come, more "Black swan" events will occur, better rethink about that "it will never go down to 700-1000$ price". We are still deep in shit, the next months will determine a lot, however, there are no clear indications that the world economy has rebounced, especially just because ETH went 50% up (for the last 1-2 days) when it lost 75% of its value the last 8 months.