Is Bitcoin bottom there yet? Fear & Greed, Pi Cycle Top / Bottom - page 2.

tranthidung

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 20, 2022, 07:20:23 AM

What I like most about this indicator is that it considered $65K top in April to be the cycle top, as opposed to $69K in November. This is what makes a cycle low 15 months later a lot more realistic, otherwise the expectation for many would be a low at the end of the year (12 months after the ATH). The idea that price won't fall below $20K ever again is starting to look quite likely now imo.

I still remember this indicator calling the cycle top in April last year, and it seemed irrelevant (an anomaly even), but now is starting to make a lot more sense.

Reject to call $69k in November as a top but call $65k in April is a top makes sense if you consider trading volume.

After topping up to $65k in April, trading volume decreases gradually and even when price touches to $69k in November, trading volume is still low. That makes sense because to make a new real all time high, Bitcoin must have higher trading volume. Something as a volume explosion. Volume is key for price ride but it is not what we get in November.

dragonvslinux

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For simplistic view of the Pi Cycle indicator that has accurately called the tops and bottoms of the market since 2013. It paints quite the picture:

It admittedly does look quite convincing for a bottom, as one of the few (if not only) indicators that correctly called the $65K in April, unlike stock to flow, logarithmic growth, etc. This is now the 3rd cycle low that's been indicated after the 4th cycle high (also called a top in April 2013 but without a low thereafter), so it has finally established a pattern if the latest signal is correct.

What I like most about this indicator is that it considered $65K top in April to be the cycle top, as opposed to $69K in November. This is what makes a cycle low 15 months later a lot more realistic, otherwise the expectation for many would be a low at the end of the year (12 months after the ATH). The idea that price won't fall below $20K ever again is starting to look quite likely now imo.

I still remember this indicator calling the cycle top in April last year, and it seemed irrelevant (an anomaly even), but now is starting to make a lot more sense.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: hugeblack on July 19, 2022, 12:10:14 PM

I remember that one of the members had given the green light because the pi indicator points to the bottom, but I think that we will face a false rise in the coming days (below 25k) and then we will witness the real bottom, which may be near 15k dollars.

As I noted, I believe that we are in bottom range and Bitcoin is going in an accumulation phase. However, it might have a crash ^{with price from $13k to $15k is very possible} as a very last wash out before bottom is out and bull market will be triggered. I don't know when a last crash will happen.

Another thing, when a crash happens, we will get a massive terrible news but remember, that crash is not because of the news. News is not a causal reason of the crash, never. News is released around the crash and that's it. It is used as a trigger for a crash, not a reason of a crash, never.

Quote from: NeuroticFish on July 19, 2022, 06:38:17 AM

I've seen in the past years that no matter what indicators you're looking for, there's a very good chance that the reality will be based on one you've missed

Market usually moves oppositely to what the crowd think it will move.

Quote

Since then I no longer try to find the bottom. It's too risky.

It is what speculators and gamblers do. Investors don't have to find absolute bottoms ^{and it isn't objective of this topic}. They only find bottom range that is enough for them to invest, DCA.

By the way, let's see Realized Price

Bitcoin is jumping in another period with its current trading price on market is under its realized price. In the past, it occurs after one bull run and will last for months before bear market ends. With more mature of Bitcoin, Market price in latest 2 bear markets are not too lower than Realized price. It means something.

hugeblack

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I remember that one of the members had given the green light because the pi indicator points to the bottom, but I think that we will face a false rise in the coming days (below 25k) and then we will witness the real bottom, which may be near 15k dollars.
We can confirm the bottom in two cases:

- The price rose above the 30K level.
- Continue to maintain this level for more than two months.

ololajulo

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When you give all these graphical pictures you are suppose to discuss the representation. Technical analysis has not been the only factor to determine the top and bottom of a market, it does not pick it at all. It might be useful for spot trading especially in this present market but not for top and bottom. The market trend has taught so many things and I will advice that cash is still the king at the moment and bear market has not got the worse of traders to try quit the space, which might look as a sign to the bottom.

rhomelmabini

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I wouldn't be surprised if we hover around these figures of 20k to 30k and 35k for months and I may not say that the bottom really is in either. The technical may indicate that it's in but if we look at the fundamentals and the traditional market, we're still looming in recession or we are already there.

Charles-Tim

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I do believe in indicators but I do not believe using indicators to find the bottom. Why are people finding the bottom when they can just hold and wait for the appropriate time to reap profit. Bitcoin has gone down much more and it can not continue to be like that. As life is risky, investing in bitcoin has its own risks as well, if doubtful of any further price decrease, then do not invest all at once.

Leviathan.007

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There are many ways to check if we are at the bottom of the market or not because being at the bottom means we should wait for a trend to change and changing the market situation can have many signals in both technical and fundamental ways. According to fear and greed, we are still in the fear situation and this cannot be a good sign for a bullish market. On the other hand, there are still many holders and long-term investors who buy bitcoin in dip and hold for the long term which shows us these days are good days to buy bitcoin long term. but regardless of that, we cannot predict the future to make sure if we are currently at the bottom of the market or not.

NeuroticFish

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I've seen in the past years that no matter what indicators you're looking for, there's a very good chance that the reality will be based on one you've missed

Since then I no longer try to find the bottom. It's too risky.

Quote from: Lucius on July 19, 2022, 05:34:00 AM

but right now I'm most worried about how to survive the new heat wave that's sweeping Europe...

The heat wave looks bad indeed. It can easily make all European miners turn off because cooling may become too expensive or inefficient. Luckily it's not a significant hash rate...

Lucius

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Quote from: tranthidung on July 18, 2022, 08:37:34 AM

Temporarily, we are witnessing another cross and it's a good signal. I don't make a call that bottom is in because another massive crash (black swan) like what happened in March 2020 might happen again. We can not exclude it completely. Anyway, combine them all, it seems we are going to a bottom area and in accumulation phase for a new bull market.

The question you ask is one that more or less everyone is asking these days, but despite all the TA analyses, no one can give a precise answer as to whether the price of BTC has reached the bottom or if new challenges await us. However, what happened in March 2020 is still specific and I do not believe that it will happen again, because the pandemic is still going on, just like the war in Eastern Europe. Can something worse than that happen (globally)? Of course, it's possible, but right now I'm most worried about how to survive the new heat wave that's sweeping Europe...

I think we will find out the answer to that question by the end of the year, or in the first half of 2023 at the latest - that is, the situation will become much clearer as we get closer to the halving.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

The crypto market is volatile and we have been witnessing the worst lost streak in history of Bitcoin with so many continuous red weekly candles.

Does Bitcoin in a bottom range yet?

Let's check with Fear & Greed index; Pi Cycle Top and Pi Cycle Bottom ^{a derivative of Pi Cycle Top}

Fear & Greed Index

The market has went through an extremely panic period. Market can not be bullish without bearish time.

Pi Cycle Top

The cross between 111 DMA and 350 DMAx2 mark a top of bull market. It is true in 2013, 2017 and 2021 bull markets.

Pi Cycle Bottom

It is a combination of EMA 150 and SMA 471. The cross of these two in the past bear cycles in 2015 and 2019 mark the nearest endings of bear market.

Temporarily, we are witnessing another cross and it's a good signal. I don't make a call that bottom is in because another massive crash (black swan) like what happened in March 2020 might happen again. We can not exclude it completely. Anyway, combine them all, it seems we are going to a bottom area and in accumulation phase for a new bull market.

* Not Financial Advice

Topic: Is Bitcoin bottom there yet? Fear & Greed, Pi Cycle Top / Bottom - page 2. (Read 395 times)