Is Bitcoin growth going exponential? - page 2.

Amph

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Quote from: zircon on October 20, 2015, 06:45:42 AM

3M users...who knows. What do you base that on? I've seen anything from 500k users to 5M users flying around.

3M sounds potentially reasonable although I would not be surprised if there are say 1.5M only at this stage.

just an estimation, based on what i've gathered online, many website have reported that numbers of user, if it is more than 3M than the 1:1:1 ratio will be more true

for example this http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/17/bitcoin-to-near-5m-active-users-by-2019-remain-niche-study.html

zircon

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3M users...who knows. What do you base that on? I've seen anything from 500k users to 5M users flying around.

3M sounds potentially reasonable although I would not be surprised if there are say 1.5M only at this stage.

Amph

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Quote from: zircon on October 20, 2015, 06:18:43 AM

1- 1.5M = 97 days
1.5 - 2M = 122 days
2 - 2.5M = 97 days
2.5 - 3M = 99 days
3 - 3.5M = 102 days
3.5 - 4M = 76 days
4 - 4.5M = 57 days

let's hope for 45 days next 500k.

i have another theory on how the price will grow based on adoption, currently we are 3M+ as a users base and the market cap is around 4B and the price is near 300

i believe the ratio is around 1:1:1 between these three factors, so to have a 10k price for bitcoin we nee 100M users at least

zircon

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1- 1.5M = 97 days
1.5 - 2M = 122 days
2 - 2.5M = 97 days
2.5 - 3M = 99 days
3 - 3.5M = 102 days
3.5 - 4M = 76 days
4 - 4.5M = 57 days

let's hope for 45 days next 500k.

Cereberus

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Quote from: Slark on October 12, 2015, 10:39:44 PM

There is no way to determine accurate number of bitcoin users. I can't operate on hard numbers, we can only estimate.
Number of transactions, number of created blockchain.info wallets or number od addresses mean nothing really.
We can't judge numbers based on that info. My guess bitcoin is far from exponential growth, we are still behind.

Yes, far behind of what these numbers want to show the community, thus pump it's value.

Slark

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There is no way to determine accurate number of bitcoin users. I can't operate on hard numbers, we can only estimate.
Number of transactions, number of created blockchain.info wallets or number od addresses mean nothing really.
We can't judge numbers based on that info. My guess bitcoin is far from exponential growth, we are still behind.

Cereberus

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Quote from: BTChaintrader on October 12, 2015, 10:22:57 PM

Right now there is no exponential growth. But I think that it will be the same as the internet for example or like the computers. When the time for exponential growth comes, within 18 months the Bitcoin community will grow to 20-40 million and then after 6-8 months it will grow to over 200 million people. The rest will be a history... in my opinion.

But this is all illusionary.
Those numbers are derived from now conclusive data. Bitcoin numbers are non quantitative.
The number of bitcoin users can not be measured accurately.

note:
quantitative - a type of information or data that is based on quantities obtained using a quantifiable measurement process. In contrast, qualitative information records qualities that are descriptive, subjective or difficult to measure.

BTChaintrader

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Right now there is no exponential growth. But I think that it will be the same as the internet for example or like the computers. When the time for exponential growth comes, within 18 months the Bitcoin community will grow to 20-40 million and then after 6-8 months it will grow to over 200 million people. The rest will be a history... in my opinion.

thejaytiesto

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It has never stopped growing nevertheless of VC money, or the actual price or mining hashrate or nodes used... it just doesn't seem to care when it comes to actual growth. This is good news, it only means that no matter what, more and more traffic is coming in within the eco system, which means once the software gets perfected and we can deal with more people, the growth will be even bigger.

andy35

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Quote from: Imad Lekal on October 12, 2015, 02:59:58 AM

This means nothing just like the number of transactions which is made by Bots (faucets , gambling websites & exchanges) and people keep losing their passwords & private keys so they logically make another wallet (by ignoring the fact that online wallets are the worst wallets to use) .

Satoshi advised us to use a new address for every transaction if we wanted to remain semi-anonymous. Some blockchain.info users might be creating a new account for every transaction, which would create the illusion of masses of new users signing up each month. The amount of active wallets constantly being reused might give a better indicator of the amount of real blockchain.info users, though that would discount those users attempting to remain anonymous.

jbrnt

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Look at all the blockchain.info wallet charts, it is textbook linear growth for all charts but the "all time" chart. So even if you assume growth of blockchain wallet users is an approximate to bitcoin growth, it isn't exponential. I think the exponential phase is not here yet. There will be signs of the arrival when you hear strangers on the streets start talking about bitcoin and when your friends start asking for your bitcoin address to pay you back for the lunch. Cheesy

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

If it ever did have an exponential phase we'd sure as shit know it.

TheGr33k

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Bitcoin growth will not be exponential, however the "adoption" jumps will appear as exponential price jumps, but this is sure to be compensated in the coming time thus eventually evening out at linear growth.
All growth is good growth, but don't get ahead of yourself! Cheesy

Mickeyb

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Move On !!!!!!

It might be off-topic, but I have to say it. I can't believe that so many people actually are using blockchain.info wallet. This thing is so buggy and gives such a terrible user experience.

I mean 4.5M wallets, for God's sake that's a lot!

Amph

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Quote from: zircon on October 12, 2015, 02:37:22 AM

Quote from: Amph on October 12, 2015, 02:34:42 AM

i would like to think, that the value increase exponentially too, it could explain why there was not any mojar "update" on the price, it could be x50 every 5 years or something

price and users base should be tied anyway

Price is speculation in anticipation for what is to come...so after many years hoping myself I have also jumped on the wagon of usage and technology is key.

I am far more interested in how many users there are, price is just a function of that really.

Facebook with 1M users, pretty useless
FB with 10m users, a bit useful
FB with 100M users, pretty useful
FB with 1B users....you know the answer

Network effect indeed is key here.

yeah but big money in play can help adoption, you see with the 1200 ath people were coming like bees on honey, so their tied in both way, both need the other

problem is that you need someone rich to start the race, before the little fish jump in, and increase the users base, which as a result would increase it even more

coinpr0n

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Blockchain My Wallet is a horrible indicator of actual users of Bitcoin as it is not tied at all to identity and allows multiple accounts. I'd rather use verified Coinbase users as an indicator and work up than Blockchain users and work down.

eyeknock

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Quote from: neonshium on October 12, 2015, 01:33:58 AM

That's not a small number to leave off. The nearing halving will do some magic on bitcoin user base as well as bitcoin prices.

ofc that's a pretty good numbers and about the halving expect a lot and i'm talking not only about that he price will grow up, im talking about a faster adoption because more and more news will be out there so people will spread the word faster.

so

Quote

Is Bitcoin growth going exponential?

maybe not, but is growing pretty well Wink

RealBitcoin

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JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK

Quote from: zircon on October 12, 2015, 12:35:11 AM

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Seems to be curving upwards slightly. Of course this is just a sample of possible growth indicators, and it does not mean that all wallets created are new users. But nevertheless it does appear to be the beginnings of exponential growth, perhaps.

Also of interest, 16 August 4M wallets, 12 October 4.5M wallets. 500k in about 57 days. Not bad.

I`m waiting for coindesks Q3 report:
http://www.coindesk.com/research/

I dont think its exponential, but it sure double/triples in a half year period, i dont know how faster it will grow later on, but definitely the next year will be exciting after the halving.

I can see bitcoin at 5000$ by then easily.

Imad Lekal

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This means nothing just like the number of transactions which is made by Bots (faucets , gambling websites & exchanges) and people keep losing their passwords & private keys so they logically make another wallet (by ignoring the fact that online wallets are the worst wallets to use) .

zircon

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Quote from: Possum577 on October 12, 2015, 02:36:32 AM

Quote from: zircon on October 12, 2015, 12:35:11 AM

Also of interest, 16 August 4M wallets, 12 October 4.5M wallets. 500k in about 57 days. Not bad.

If you don't share the rate of wallet growth for the 57 days preceding 16 August, there's no way for us to know if that 500k in about 57 days is "not bad" or "not good".

The real problem is that wallet growth doesn't indicate greater adoption or long term use. It only indicates greater introductions, it doesn't mean that people stay with it or fully adopt it.

Good points. Preceding 57 days were about 390 000, vs 500 000 for last 57 days.

I share your sentiment but only partially - it still seems to indicate increased interest and use, although I cannot take away from your argument - long term use is king here.

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