Is Bitcoin growth going exponential? - page 3.

zircon

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 10

Quote from: Amph on October 12, 2015, 02:34:42 AM

i would like to think, that the value increase exponentially too, it could explain why there was not any mojar "update" on the price, it could be x50 every 5 years or something

price and users base should be tied anyway

Price is speculation in anticipation for what is to come...so after many years hoping myself I have also jumped on the wagon of usage and technology is key.

I am far more interested in how many users there are, price is just a function of that really.

Facebook with 1M users, pretty useless
FB with 10m users, a bit useful
FB with 100M users, pretty useful
FB with 1B users....you know the answer

Network effect indeed is key here.

NorrisK

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1007

Quote from: VirosaGITS on October 12, 2015, 02:31:13 AM

Quote from: zircon on October 12, 2015, 02:26:34 AM

Also of interest:

About 2M wallets August 2014
4M wallets August 2015

So it doubled in 1 year. For it to double again we need 8M wallets in Aug 2016, seemingly not impossible because at the moment we look at 1M new wallets every 4 months. Coupled with some slight exponential growth I would say we are on track easily for 8M wallets August 2016.

16M Aug 2017
32M Aug 2018
64M Aug 2019
128M Aug 2020
256M Aug 2021
512M Aug 2022
1024M Aug 2023
2048M Aug 2024
4096M Aug 2025

...

That is of course highly simplified but who knows...it could be even faster because money is such an emotional thing - it may just lead to a situation where the rats run from the ship, although past historical data appears to indicate otherwise.

Hmm, even if we say 16M = 1.6M unique user, that would still mean the entire world's population by 2030 and honestly something just sound off about this. Even 1.6M unique users does not sound right and the growth until now does not sound right.

I/we must be missing something.

It will probably grow in an s-shaped curve.

Slow at the start, once momentum is gained, we go up very fast, but as we reach adoptation, the amount of new users starts to slow again reaching an asymptote.

Possum577

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Loose lips sink sigs!

Quote from: zircon on October 12, 2015, 12:35:11 AM

Also of interest, 16 August 4M wallets, 12 October 4.5M wallets. 500k in about 57 days. Not bad.

If you don't share the rate of wallet growth for the 57 days preceding 16 August, there's no way for us to know if that 500k in about 57 days is "not bad" or "not good".

The real problem is that wallet growth doesn't indicate greater adoption or long term use. It only indicates greater introductions, it doesn't mean that people stay with it or fully adopt it.

zircon

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 10

you mean we are less than 1.6M users right now?

I have no idea. Seen some stats on people trying to calculate and it appeared to be more than 1M users at least at the moment.

Do you think there are less users or more? Not sure what you meant.

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

i would like to think, that the value increase exponentially too, it could explain why there was not any mojar "update" on the price, it could be x50 every 5 years or something

price and users base should be tied anyway

VirosaGITS

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1068

Quote from: zircon on October 12, 2015, 02:26:34 AM

Also of interest:

About 2M wallets August 2014
4M wallets August 2015

So it doubled in 1 year. For it to double again we need 8M wallets in Aug 2016, seemingly not impossible because at the moment we look at 1M new wallets every 4 months. Coupled with some slight exponential growth I would say we are on track easily for 8M wallets August 2016.

16M Aug 2017
32M Aug 2018
64M Aug 2019
128M Aug 2020
256M Aug 2021
512M Aug 2022
1024M Aug 2023
2048M Aug 2024
4096M Aug 2025

...

That is of course highly simplified but who knows...it could be even faster because money is such an emotional thing - it may just lead to a situation where the rats run from the ship, although past historical data appears to indicate otherwise.

Hmm, even if we say 16M = 1.6M unique user, that would still mean the entire world's population by 2030 and honestly something just sound off about this. Even 1.6M unique users does not sound right and the growth until now does not sound right.

I/we must be missing something.

zircon

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 10

Also of interest:

About 2M wallets August 2014
4M wallets August 2015

So it doubled in 1 year. For it to double again we need 8M wallets in Aug 2016, seemingly not impossible because at the moment we look at 1M new wallets every 4 months. Coupled with some slight exponential growth I would say we are on track easily for 8M wallets August 2016.

16M Aug 2017
32M Aug 2018
64M Aug 2019
128M Aug 2020
256M Aug 2021
512M Aug 2022
1024M Aug 2023
2048M Aug 2024
4096M Aug 2025

...

That is of course highly simplified but who knows...it could be even faster because money is such an emotional thing - it may just lead to a situation where the rats run from the ship, although past historical data appears to indicate otherwise.

zircon

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 10

AFAIK my wallet users is the amount of wallets created on BlockChain (the company, not the actual blockchain).

I don't know about 2M users, who knows. There are estimates of 10 wallets for every person, but that was also guesstimates.

The interesting part is the following: if you are trying to track your weight and you get a new scale you do not expect to see the same weight. What you can track however is relative change and fluctuations and that is what is important here. In my view how many people there are with wallets does not interest me as much as what I perceive to be, the first proper hints of exponential growth. We may have had exponential growth before but it was with far less users and the changes were far more sudden.

Why would the halving affect user base and price? Price I would have thought yes, but the last time if I recall correctly it did not make much of a difference.

neonshium

hero member

Activity: 1134

Merit: 515

Yes bitcoin growth is on raising exponential over time as expected. Price will follow the user base later on. 4.5 millions wallets must belong to at least 2 Million users. That's not a small number to leave off. The nearing halving will do some magic on bitcoin user base as well as bitcoin prices.

VirosaGITS

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1068

Quote from: zircon on October 12, 2015, 12:35:11 AM

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Seems to be curving upwards slightly. Of course this is just a sample of possible growth indicators, and it does not mean that all wallets created are new users. But nevertheless it does appear to be the beginnings of exponential growth, perhaps.

Also of interest, 16 August 4M wallets, 12 October 4.5M wallets. 500k in about 57 days. Not bad.

What does qualify as a "My Wallet Bitcoin Users"? Because i doubt there's 4.5m users on blockchain.info. Maybe 4.5m privkey?

And i'm not sure about BTC growth and i don't think anyone is. We could be looking at BTC being at 1k or 10k or 1$ in 20 years. So exponential up until a cap is possible, but there's no telling either way i'd say.

zircon

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 10

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Seems to be curving upwards slightly. Of course this is just a sample of possible growth indicators, and it does not mean that all wallets created are new users. But nevertheless it does appear to be the beginnings of exponential growth, perhaps.

Also of interest, 16 August 4M wallets, 12 October 4.5M wallets. 500k in about 57 days. Not bad.

Topic: Is Bitcoin growth going exponential? - page 3. (Read 2785 times)