That's an interesting observation, but maybe it's a little far-stretched. The ATH was established around November 2013, December 2017, April 2021. It's 4 years between 2013 and 2017, but a little over 3 years before 2021. And, of course, there's no guarantee that we'll have to wait around 4 years for the next ATH.
I'd also like to add that in 2017, there were some news about South Korea restricting the activities of crypto exchanges. As far as I remember, this was actually the trigger that led to the prices dropping. Here are some articles from those times that support this idea. As for 2021, a major factor was Elon Musk's announcement of Tesla stopping accepting bitcoins.
Topic: Is Bitcoin Naturally Defined By 4 Year Boom And Bust Cycles (Read 445 times)
A brief timeline of crypto history.
2013 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.
2017 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.
2021 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.
Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?
Will bitcoin naturally be defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles.
Due to its rewards halving being based around approximate 4 year cycles?
It is a good observation and it kinda make sense on how bitcoin keeps on booming out. Before the bull run at 2021, it went on a 4years crisis wherein lots of crypto enthusiasts ended up losing interest with their investment. If ever that's really the case, we should expect another bull run on the next four years. Maybe that is the reason why many people are holding their investments still at the moment, because they are fully aware that another bull run would occur. You just need to be patient and have faith on your investment, no matter what it is, either bitcoin or ethereum, just keep on persevering. 2013 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.
2017 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.
2021 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.
Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?
Will bitcoin naturally be defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles.
Due to its rewards halving being based around approximate 4 year cycles?
I guess this is the cycle that we all are getting used to since the day Bitcoin started to boom with the bull run. I never see it exceeded it's ATH during those 3 years left before another halving occurred. It seems that investors and other large institutional investors are waiting for this to happen since they knew that more people will be joining in the market and they can easily manipulate if they want to make profit.
The crypto market is unpredictable. Who knows, the next all time high might happen even years before the halving. Maybe the halving and the price rise is just a coincidence? Or maybe its because everyone thinks that the price is going to increase, hence everyone invests causing the price to increase. But if you look at the charts, this time it wasn't as much as we expected it to be. The recent price rise was mainly because of huge companies getting into the market. they can easily manipulate if they want to make profit.
I doubt they can easily manipulate the market. When many competitors enter the market, it in fact is going to be harder for everyone to manipulate (unless they all decide to unite and mess things up). In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news
First of all the bull market is not over yet, we need to watch what the market does during the next months before we can declare the bull market over, and even if that is the case we are not going have to wait that long as you can take a position in the market before the halving takes place and everyone is sleeping, then when the market begins to grow up you will be able to capture all the bull market while others are just trying to understand what is it happening.
In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news
First of all the bull market is not over yet, we need to watch what the market does during the next months before we can declare the bull market over, and even if that is the case we are not going have to wait that long as you can take a position in the market before the halving takes place and everyone is sleeping, then when the market begins to grow up you will be able to capture all the bull market while others are just trying to understand what is it happening.
I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.
Its always something to do with the halving mechanism so far but this time it seems to be different ( my own perspective ). I wonder if we will ever get this huge bull run if it wasnt for the covid-19 pandemic. The 10 years US treasury bonds hits below their average return which is why alot of those big guys 'gamble' into cryptocurrencies in general
To me, it's only stock to flow.
Yes, the demand driven by the pandemic, the FED brrr and the wealth effect of stick market played a role, but the main driving force hasn't changed since 2010: Stock2Flow explains 95% of the price of bitcoin: I wouldn't be too concerned by the residual 5%.
How strongly do you rely on S2F?
In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news
First of all the bull market is not over yet, we need to watch what the market does during the next months before we can declare the bull market over, and even if that is the case we are not going have to wait that long as you can take a position in the market before the halving takes place and everyone is sleeping, then when the market begins to grow up you will be able to capture all the bull market while others are just trying to understand what is it happening. 
Previously these cycles were triggered by the block reward halving events. As you can notice from the charts, the ATH of 2013 and 2017 were achieved in 1 to 1.5 years after the first and second block reward halving respectively. We had another block reward halving on 2020, and therefore we should be expecting another ATH by mid-2021 to end-2021. And I guess that has already happened. The spike was more mild this time, because the impact of block reward halving on the total supply is of a lesser magnitude when compared to the previous such events.
I guess this is the cycle that we all are getting used to since the day Bitcoin started to boom with the bull run. I never see it exceeded it's ATH during those 3 years left before another halving occurred. It seems that investors and other large institutional investors are waiting for this to happen since they knew that more people will be joining in the market and they can easily manipulate if they want to make profit.
A cycle that has occurred 4 years bitcoin spike again. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 and has exploded in 2013, 2017 and 2021. If calculated according to this cycle, by 2025 the bitcoin price will reach a new peak. So right now we should invest in bitcoin while it is low and keep it for long. Hopefully this will be an important milestone to success when you buy bitcoin.
Well, first of all, the year 2021 is still not over and we are only approaching its middle, and therefore I would not dare to argue that the rise this year has already ended and it is time to start buying, because the next peak will be only in four years, as well as I am not sure that the exchange rate price will not fall again to lower levels in the near future. I can more or less listen to such conclusions about four-year cycles, but I still do not advise you to rush and announce that all the significant cryptocurrency events have already occurred this year. By no means, by the end of the year, many more interesting things can happen, such as the rise to new levels. A cycle that has occurred 4 years bitcoin spike again. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 and has exploded in 2013, 2017 and 2021. If calculated according to this cycle, by 2025 the bitcoin price will reach a new peak. So right now we should invest in bitcoin while it is low and keep it for long. Hopefully this will be an important milestone to success when you buy bitcoin.
But you also have to consider that anything can happen in this market. The adoption is different than in previous years. It may not follow the 4-year cycle but the progress may come early. Who knows? This market is very unpredictable. Either way, we should always be ready for whatever may happen. But one thing, if you are in this market, make sure that you are allotting funds that you can afford. Because if anything goes wrong, your life's savings will not be burned.
A cycle that has occurred 4 years bitcoin spike again. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 and has exploded in 2013, 2017 and 2021. If calculated according to this cycle, by 2025 the bitcoin price will reach a new peak. So right now we should invest in bitcoin while it is low and keep it for long. Hopefully this will be an important milestone to success when you buy bitcoin.
A brief timeline of crypto history.
2013 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.
2017 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.
2021 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.
If you will see, there is a bit of similarities on it.2013 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.
2017 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.
2021 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.
Aside from the fact that this happened every 4 years, the Chinese are always involved in this crashes. China China China.. Hmmmmmmmmmmm.
Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?
If we will base on the history then it might be that this year will be the year where Bitcoin will reach its ATH. Possible that the $65,000 price is the ATH already or it might go even higher in the next months of 2021.On the other hand, we might see a super cycle and it might break this trend but the chances of this are very low. I still believe in "History repeats itself".
This bull cycle (if it were to end with a60k top) would be the shortest in history. We're actually at the point of the first breakout followed by a selloff like in 2017 after reaching 3k we fell back to 1.5k. We're now at 60% of the ATH and in 2017 after reaching 300% of the last ATH we fell 50%. Looks familiar?
Take a look at this chart that shows days since bottom in every bull cycle in history.
You'll notice that each cycle took more days and the third cycle was significantly weaker than the second.
This is a chart from last year and we are currently around 900 days into the cycle, so 150 days earlier than 2017 top and very likely at around 200 days before the top of this cycle.
Of course that is only if the cycle theory is really a thing, which i think it is. Mathematically, longer, slower cycles make sense since the number of coins in circulation, market capitalization and the number of users are all increasing.
Not necessarily because the cycles are getting longer. If this one takes 1100 days or more and the bear market begins in the end of 2021, you'll have to wait even longer for the new high.
Good news is that even after 2 years of bear market we'll still be above 20k.
Take a look at this chart that shows days since bottom in every bull cycle in history.
You'll notice that each cycle took more days and the third cycle was significantly weaker than the second.
This is a chart from last year and we are currently around 900 days into the cycle, so 150 days earlier than 2017 top and very likely at around 200 days before the top of this cycle.
Of course that is only if the cycle theory is really a thing, which i think it is. Mathematically, longer, slower cycles make sense since the number of coins in circulation, market capitalization and the number of users are all increasing.
In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news
Not necessarily because the cycles are getting longer. If this one takes 1100 days or more and the bear market begins in the end of 2021, you'll have to wait even longer for the new high.
Good news is that even after 2 years of bear market we'll still be above 20k.
The sample size is still too small to call it at that. Though the intervals are already pretty obvious, I still think that it isn’t enough to satisfy the notion that most people have regarding bull run cycles. It’s a great observation, but certainly not enough evidence and figures to work from in order to call it something that is regular or an accepted pattern.
In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news
In fact the bitcoin market is not based on anyone if the demand is high the price goes up. The population of China was much higher in terms of crypto use the amount of its investment has decreased due to the sudden ban the government argued that it was protecting the population from cryptocurrency instability it also sought the power to regulate and tax transactions with cryptocurrencies. It is highly probable that the increased roadblocks in the use of cryptocurrencies by major us banks are driven at least in part with the us government expected to crackdown in the future.
Bitcoin price is based purely like the laws of economics. and maybe this four yearly incident was just a coincidence. more than that, in fact Ellon and China previously gave negative statements which resulted in a decrease in the price of bitcoin, but I think it will rise again, along with increasing demand. 
In fact the bitcoin market is not based on anyone if the demand is high the price goes up. The population of China was much higher in terms of crypto use the amount of its investment has decreased due to the sudden ban the government argued that it was protecting the population from cryptocurrency instability it also sought the power to regulate and tax transactions with cryptocurrencies. It is highly probable that the increased roadblocks in the use of cryptocurrencies by major us banks are driven at least in part with the us government expected to crackdown in the future.
Lol every year there is always going to be something bad that is going to happen and cause the price to crash (as people would believe). Funny enough they are always pointing hands at China every time there is a crash like this and all that. And as for whether there is going to be another time like this in the next four years?
Of course there is going to be another time like this in the four years that is coming and that’s because we are going to see another halving that is going to reduce supply and everything will now lead to another ATH price. I never expected it this year because of the coronavirus and also how the price plummeted earlier. So, if it’s going to happen at a time like this, it’s also going to happen again in the future no matter what.
Of course there is going to be another time like this in the four years that is coming and that’s because we are going to see another halving that is going to reduce supply and everything will now lead to another ATH price. I never expected it this year because of the coronavirus and also how the price plummeted earlier. So, if it’s going to happen at a time like this, it’s also going to happen again in the future no matter what.
Can't blame people who blame China for causing the market crash, because several times the Chinese government gave negative statements
regarding Bitcoin. Because even now the Chinese government has not been able to accept Bitcoin, so it is very natural that China is one of
the causes for the market crash. As long as the halving is still happening, I believe every 4 years there will be an increase in Bitcoin towards
the new ATH. So history will continue to repeat itself, therefore it is very important for us to prepare before the next halving occurs.
Because in my opinion the opportunity to make a large profit from Bitcoin after the halving happened. So from now on can collect Bitcoin,
so when the next halving occurs we already have quite a lot of Bitcoin.
To me, it's only stock to flow.
Yes, the demand driven by the pandemic, the FED brrr and the wealth effect of stick market played a role, but the main driving force hasn't changed since 2010: Stock2Flow explains 95% of the price of bitcoin: I wouldn't be too concerned by the residual 5%.
Im not a firm believer of this Stock to Flow ratio model, well atleast not yet but to be honest it is really convincing. In fact this is my first time to read a detailed explanation about it from your thread. If this model is the holy grail of bitcoin then somewhere between today until 2024/2025, we might hit 100k ( or close to that )
I wonder what would be the driven factor for bitcoin demand if it wasnt for the pandemic
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