Is Bitcoin Naturally Defined By 4 Year Boom And Bust Cycles - page 2.

fillippone

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Quote from: arallmuus on May 28, 2021, 04:24:56 PM

Quote from: fillippone on May 28, 2021, 08:20:58 AM

I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.

Its always something to do with the halving mechanism so far but this time it seems to be different ( my own perspective ). I wonder if we will ever get this huge bull run if it wasnt for the covid-19 pandemic. The 10 years US treasury bonds hits below their average return which is why alot of those big guys 'gamble' into cryptocurrencies in general

To me, it's only stock to flow.
Yes, the demand driven by the pandemic, the FED brrr and the wealth effect of stick market played a role, but the main driving force hasn't changed since 2010: Stock2Flow explains 95% of the price of bitcoin: I wouldn't be too concerned by the residual 5%.

arallmuus

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Quote from: fillippone on May 28, 2021, 08:20:58 AM

I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.

Its always something to do with the halving mechanism so far but this time it seems to be different ( my own perspective ). I wonder if we will ever get this huge bull run if it wasnt for the covid-19 pandemic. The 10 years US treasury bonds hits below their average return which is why alot of those big guys 'gamble' into cryptocurrencies in general

Quote from: fillippone on May 28, 2021, 08:20:58 AM

If market realise stock to flow is being priced in, we will pass from a 4 year “boom and bust” cycle, to what Micheal Saylor calls a “supercycle”.

I hope we do, 100k dream or 1 million dream. Any new ATH would be great

sana54210

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Quote from: Hydrogen on May 24, 2021, 01:17:52 PM

2017 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

The 2017 fall didn't start because of bitfinex or USDT or anything related to that, in fact it was more of a helpful thing while people were going out, it would have been worse if people got out completely but they kept it in USDT and that was a bit of better thing, easier to get back in, still in crypto space.

The biggest start and problem of 2018 was the fact that mt.gox trustee started to sell tens of thousands of bitcoins and back in those days that was a lot of money, that started it and wasn't the only reason, but with that we dropped from 20k levels (by then dropped to 18 or so) to under 12k levels, after that we had a few more hacks in exchanges and also ICO's all scamming people, all these dropped it to about 7k levels with the bad momentum. Last draw was when Craig Wright sold tens of thousands of bitcoin to get mining power for taking over BCH and failed, that was really horrible.

fillippone

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I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.

PlanB research cannot be unseen:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

If market realise stock to flow is being priced in, we will pass from a 4 year “boom and bust” cycle, to what Micheal Saylor calls a “supercycle”.

michellee

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If so, we can expect to see the bitcoin price crash to the dip in the next 4 years and prepare for that. If we see the history, the bitcoin movements are almost the same, but the price always reaches the new ATH every 4 years, but that is not always guaranteed as the bitcoin price can move wild without knowing where it will go.

But with the popularity of bitcoin now, I think in the next 4 years or the future, the bitcoin movements will not be the same as many companies, people, or even the government can buy bitcoin so that it can make the moves will be different than the previous years. So we need always to be careful to decide and make sure we analyze the market before doing something.

Silberman

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Quote from: Hydrogen on May 24, 2021, 01:17:52 PM

A brief timeline of crypto history.

2013 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.

2017 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

2021 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?

Will bitcoin naturally be defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles.

Due to its rewards halving being based around approximate 4 year cycles?

So far this has been true and I think this is going to continue, there is a concept in trading called seasonal trading in which people trade some assets based on the time of the year, commodities like corn and even oil follow this pattern and bitcoin due to its halving creates an expectation that the price will go up in value after each halving, this generates more demand which generates an increase in the price making this a self-fulfilling prophecy.

dezoel

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Lol every year there is always going to be something bad that is going to happen and cause the price to crash (as people would believe). Funny enough they are always pointing hands at China every time there is a crash like this and all that. And as for whether there is going to be another time like this in the next four years?

Of course there is going to be another time like this in the four years that is coming and that’s because we are going to see another halving that is going to reduce supply and everything will now lead to another ATH price. I never expected it this year because of the coronavirus and also how the price plummeted earlier. So, if it’s going to happen at a time like this, it’s also going to happen again in the future no matter what.

hannahB4

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I will not say bitcoin will be naturally Defined by the so-called 4-year boom and bust cycle I think this all happens to be coincidental at the interval you call it and for now many people are already in this market and technology are on the high side. More positive prospective investors will soon join the club so I don't think it will be after another four years before we see another ATH.

acener

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Well if it would be a regular cycle of the price then it would really be best to HODL it and wait for every 4 years to hit a new ATH and sell,
Then wait for the price to drop down then buy back then wait again for 4 years.
Just like OP I also think that Bitcoin Halving is one of the reason why we experience this kind of cycle but the question is would it remain in this kind cycle? or would this be the last and it would create a new one?

LUCKMCFLY

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Until now I had seen that the BTC market behaves that way, because from 2014 to 2017 I saw that there was an accumulation stage, after 2018 to 2021, but we are not in the uptrend at all because due to the corrections we could be talking. about a sharp drop before a possible reaccumulation stage is generated, which is quite ingenious, in this market we have not had reaccumulation yet.

But since it can be said that the Accumulation stage usually lasts 3 years, it is likely that by the 4th year benefits will already be obtained, this is what also differs from the Stock Market, since in the Stock Market the important movements are usually every 8 to 10 years, this is why the BTC market is so superior to regret that it has no backing.

ven7net

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Quote from: Hydrogen on May 24, 2021, 01:17:52 PM

A brief timeline of crypto history.

2013 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.

2017 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

2021 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?

Will bitcoin naturally be defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles.

Due to its rewards halving being based around approximate 4 year cycles?

I also adhere to this theory that the rise in the price of BTC and in the crypto market in general has a cyclical nature and each such cycle is 4 years. As for the next cycle, which ends in 2021, then I believe that the main growth will be at the end of 2021, as in 2017, and the drop that was a few days ago is a forced price drop in order to be able to prices go even higher. Based on the 4-year cycle theory, it can be assumed that the next cycle will begin at the beginning of 2022 and will also come to an end at the end of 2025. But how will it actually be, I'm sure we will see.

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Quote from: Hydrogen on May 24, 2021, 01:17:52 PM

2021 Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

I will agree more to this if you say Elon musk tweet was part of the reason for the crash. IMO , the Chinese miners that were forced to shut down hard a major effect on transaction fees, it made the fees extremely high at the time. I remember the price at that time was still close to $60,000. I believe after Elon musk SNL show and tweeting against bitcoin electricity consumption, the fud was every where and soon after that the dumping started. That's my opinion on that.

cryptomaniac_xxx

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We really don't know if this is etch in stone though. The market is still fairly young to say that it is defined by a 4 year cycle. Although there's a lot of proponent of it, we might see some changes as we go along the way. We might see one super cycle, or two 3 year bull run, so it's early to say. And as we hit 20 million bitcoin mine in the next 2-3 halvings, things might be different.

so98nn

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Isn't this is associated with the Bitcoin Halving process?

I mean whenever the halving occurs it reduces the miner fees and thus also gives out more prices (historic pattern). Not sure if this is to overcome the reduced fiat value to the reduced miner fees or something else. But considering the last cycles this is the definite case.

Last year we had same thing and I am pretty sure we will see it for the next cycle which is on 2024. (Near the time you mentioned).

Wexnident

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Well, history speaks for itself so I suppose so. Every 4 years does limit the current supply of its Bitcoinhence affecting the market, but honestly, I hardly doubt it's the main reason for the boom and bust of Bitcoin for those cycles. It's more like the situations where Bitcoin goes boom just happen to be in a cycle of 4 years, with those 4 years being a buffer for the boom in the end.

But hey, in the end, this IS Bitcoin we are talking about. I wouldn't entirely be surprised if it suddenly changes its cycle all of a sudden. Ideally, it wouldn't be good to completely base the movement on the 4-year cycles, BUT it is good to take it into account and make decisions using it as a part only.

Darker45

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This looks interesting, but, honestly, I don't think there is something more to this than mere coincidence. I mean, those things that you mentioned which apparently played a major role in the price movements of Bitcoin didn't take place following a schedule. In no way anybody could have predicted those events to happen. They just happened.

Also, I think it is hard for one to create a technical prediction or a time frame for the price of Bitcoin using fundamentals.

jrrsparkles

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Surprisingly China involved in all the incidents. Shocked

Until now it was 4 year per cycle but lest time we are much sooner than 4 year so probably the next cycle of ATH will be in 2024 middle or towards the end.

wahyu wida

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Quote from: Mauser on May 26, 2021, 02:16:05 PM

I am not sure if 4 years are correct, but it might be. I noticed that financial crisis tend to happen in 10years intervals. But the finance market is much more regulated. For bitcoins and other cryptos it should probably occur more often. One important thing is also the bitcoin having process happens every 4 years. So maybe in the year of having we see higher prices which will then drop afterwards in the next years. But one good thing is that the long term trend is upwards.

maybe it just happened to happen, but this habit can be used as a reference in a four-year cycle, and after this means, should we be careful because there will be a decline similar to starting in 2018? I think anything can happen, the most important thing is we have to trade safely at all times

just_Alice

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Though it is said "Once an accident, twice a coincidence, three times a pattern", strange as it may sound..might it be just a coincidence this time? I just don't see any logical explanation behind these 4-year periods. But what isn't a coincidence is China's involvement in all this. Honestly, up until now, I didn't realize that they were going against crypto all along.
And regarding halving, though it is known that Bitcoin price naturally goes up after each halving, we can see that in all these years the real surge in price was caused rather by something political, social, than technical.

Mauser

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I am not sure if 4 years are correct, but it might be. I noticed that financial crisis tend to happen in 10years intervals. But the finance market is much more regulated. For bitcoins and other cryptos it should probably occur more often. One important thing is also the bitcoin having process happens every 4 years. So maybe in the year of having we see higher prices which will then drop afterwards in the next years. But one good thing is that the long term trend is upwards.

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