Topic: Is Bitcoin's price "basically a fire sale"? (Read 378 times)
Investing in bitcoin is like holding a fire, whenever there is a risk of loss, but because the opportunities for profit are high, I don't hesitate to take risks, hopefully the price will skyrocket again and allow me to do many things.
Fire sale suggests a rushed temporary situation where as BTC can test patience far more then that. We can be here for weeks, drift lower some spike down and really scare people enough to shake them out of the tree and so on.
It doesn't have to be temporary for it to be a fire sale. For example when price was $200 back in 2015, it stayed there for a long time and we even had a big drop down to $150 (-25%) but I don't think you can find anybody who wouldn't call $200 a fire sale!It was repeated at $3000 and now it is repeating at $20000
Fire sale suggests a rushed temporary situation where as BTC can test patience far more then that. We can be here for weeks, drift lower some spike down and really scare people enough to shake them out of the tree and so on. Ultimately I think its better to be bullish now then the failed hopes of 100k where people failed to realize aspirations would be dashed on the rocks because markets stall on such weak flimsy reasoning as higher price hopes.
The reason it would be better value and so a good sale opportunity to buy is BTC does have a better backbone to it then purely guessing a higher price, so many bears think thats all BTC is and people go and confirm that for them while calling themselves bulls.
The reason it would be better value and so a good sale opportunity to buy is BTC does have a better backbone to it then purely guessing a higher price, so many bears think thats all BTC is and people go and confirm that for them while calling themselves bulls.
No chart, price model, or price in general can dictate if bitcoin has topped, bottomed, or any other sort of "signal". We can use such chart as information on how high or how low bitcoin went, but I don't think we should be making decisions solely based on it.
It is because of this that trading is not only a science but an art, we cannot just take a look at the numbers and then take a decisions based on them, and while this is better than what the majority of the traders do those which are the best also try to consider other factors when taking their investment or trading decisions, the chart presented is an useful one but I think there is still potential for the price of bitcoin to go lower, however the current price is a good starting point for a DCA strategy.I personally do a long term investment and I have no headaches because of it. However, when I trade, which is a small time thing for me, I still focus solely on the data and yes sometimes I am wrong but that is worth it, much better than just winging it.
This could be the last chance to see it at its current price. For me this is really the best time to buy bitcoin because next bottom of market cycles would be much higher if we are going to base bitcoin's historical corrections. We are just in early phase of this bear market so we have a lot of time to accumulate until the next cycle.
I'm preparing for the price to go deeper at this point because everyone is thinking this is not the bottom yet considering also the global crisis that we experience now.
Well, I hope so but honestly, I wasn't already convinced with the current pumps it showed as this bear season will stay longer just like in the last bear market, and more often it pumps during weekends and drops again. I'm preparing for the price to go deeper at this point because everyone is thinking this is not the bottom yet considering also the global crisis that we experience now.
I will still be going to grab more Bitcoin if ever it drops below $18k. I already learn my mistakes in the last Bullrun and certainly, I can't afford to lose this opportunity again. But if you are right, well, I have nothing to regret as I was already held some ready for the big run.
This could be the last chance to see it at its current price. For me this is really the best time to buy bitcoin because next bottom of market cycles would be much higher if we are going to base bitcoin's historical corrections. We are just in early phase of this bear market so we have a lot of time to accumulate until the next cycle.
I'm preparing for the price to go deeper at this point because everyone is thinking this is not the bottom yet considering also the global crisis that we experience now.
I'm preparing for the price to go deeper at this point because everyone is thinking this is not the bottom yet considering also the global crisis that we experience now.
I believe that we are still following the same upward trend as before that this is still a "fire sale" considering how much below the bitcoin intrinsic value we currently are.
The problem is that there are always external factors that affect the market and can push this trend out of its natural course like the 2020 COVID pandemic and its effects on the global economy or the current ongoing conflict between East and West that had a significant effect mostly on Western economy and partly in Eastern economy.
Add to that all the market manipulation, panic sells, FUD, ... and you should start seeing the market more clearly.
The problem is that there are always external factors that affect the market and can push this trend out of its natural course like the 2020 COVID pandemic and its effects on the global economy or the current ongoing conflict between East and West that had a significant effect mostly on Western economy and partly in Eastern economy.
Add to that all the market manipulation, panic sells, FUD, ... and you should start seeing the market more clearly.
I would say every dip is a fire sale, but don't make investment based on those charts or assumptions. You can never predict what is going to happen next. So don't go all in hoping that the exact same thing will happen. You might end up losing everything. Instead invest whatever you can afford to lose. If you don't have any spare money lying around, then don't invest. Just keep holding whatever you invested. You don't lose anything as long as you don't sell.
People assumed the price will reach 100k last year based on trends and charts. That didn't happen, did it?
People assumed the price will reach 100k last year based on trends and charts. That didn't happen, did it?
There is no doubt its a firesale right now. Get as much of it as you can, thsi si going to be like getting the collection item of a great product, in a pawn shop that doesn't know what they are dealing with. Get it now, at this price, when it is basically low enough to say that it shouldn't be, and when the price recovers which we all know it will, you will be able to make a ton of profit from it. All the people who buy from here, will be able to say that they did a great job and count their profits, all the people who sold now and call it a dead thing, will regret it in a year or two and wish that they bought it.
To state the BTC price stays higher pricing for a period of 9 years and we last until 2025 trading every day as we have previous is actually still bullish, exceptional optimism for a doom and gloomer. But then it goes to zero so be scared, eventually the sun explodes and Yellowstone volcano is due any day yet we continue. If BTC is fine till 2025 I think thats alot more bullish then the worst case scenario, you are lacking imagination of all possible events. Just a simple EMP event would be enough, totally natural and many other situations BTC is surely challenged (worse then now).
The main question is why 2025, dollar has accumulated value in 2025 despite its debt and deficits, lagging inflation for 3 years yet appreciates anyway. Perhaps maybe they default on bonds but respect paper doesnt make sense but a possible scenario and I can see BTC does tank with that deflationary event.
The trajectory for the future is most likely similar to the past with ever increasing volatility.
The main question is why 2025, dollar has accumulated value in 2025 despite its debt and deficits, lagging inflation for 3 years yet appreciates anyway. Perhaps maybe they default on bonds but respect paper doesnt make sense but a possible scenario and I can see BTC does tank with that deflationary event.
The trajectory for the future is most likely similar to the past with ever increasing volatility.
No chart, price model, or price in general can dictate if bitcoin has topped, bottomed, or any other sort of "signal". We can use such chart as information on how high or how low bitcoin went, but I don't think we should be making decisions solely based on it.
It is because of this that trading is not only a science but an art, we cannot just take a look at the numbers and then take a decisions based on them, and while this is better than what the majority of the traders do those which are the best also try to consider other factors when taking their investment or trading decisions, the chart presented is an useful one but I think there is still potential for the price of bitcoin to go lower, however the current price is a good starting point for a DCA strategy.I personally do a long term investment and I have no headaches because of it. However, when I trade, which is a small time thing for me, I still focus solely on the data and yes sometimes I am wrong but that is worth it, much better than just winging it.
I'm not sure I'd say it's a fire sale. This is the level that seemed obvious we would fall to when looking at a chart of the price. I think a fire sale would be a price under $10K. Not saying now isn't a good time to be buying... I'm sure we're close to the bottom. Like pretty much everyone else I'm seeing $13K as a likely bottom, but I'm also seeing a rise to new highs once that is behind us and things like the gox coins aren't hanging over the market. So don't go mortgaging the house Saylor style to buy BTC just yet, but do go ahead and start growing your stack and getting your plan in place going forward.
No chart, price model, or price in general can dictate if bitcoin has topped, bottomed, or any other sort of "signal". We can use such chart as information on how high or how low bitcoin went, but I don't think we should be making decisions solely based on it.
It is because of this that trading is not only a science but an art, we cannot just take a look at the numbers and then take a decisions based on them, and while this is better than what the majority of the traders do, those which are the best also try to consider other factors when taking their investment or trading decisions, the chart presented is an useful one but I think there is still potential for the price of bitcoin to go lower, however the current price is a good starting point for a DCA strategy. 
I've already run several math and science models and this is the most likely future:
Atleast provide the math dude.
Kidding aside, That Bitcoin Rainbow is obviously not realistic at all and just form through the imaginative mind of Bitcoin maximalist and shillers on social media which is in deep stress right now. The insane prediction above 100K is not realistic and healthy at all for Bitcoin because it means that everyone is holding at that time before Bitcoin moves at that price direction, Just like a bubble that waiting to be pop. I will not believe it unless billionaires start to invest on it just like what Elon Musk did or Blackrock.
Well ETFs are opening up, Europe just got one, Canada has one, USA is sueing the SEC to get one...
These tools are needed for Wallstreet money to enter the space.
Bitcoin isn't a bubble, the 19999 shitcoins probably are but Bitcoin is most likely here to stay.
I've already run several math and science models and this is the most likely future:
Atleast provide the math dude.
Kidding aside, That Bitcoin Rainbow is obviously not realistic at all and just form through the imaginative mind of Bitcoin maximalist and shillers on social media which is in deep stress right now. The insane prediction above 100K is not realistic and healthy at all for Bitcoin because it means that everyone is holding at that time before Bitcoin moves at that price direction, Just like a bubble that waiting to be pop. I will not believe it unless billionaires start to invest on it just like what Elon Musk did or Blackrock.
I also thought recently that there was a sale going on and a good opportunity to buy cheap bitcoin. But now I'm beginning to doubt that because there are global financial changes happening in the world that didn't exist before. It seems to me that this time the fall might surprise absolutely everyone and that the crash of 2020 might be repeated. But so far the history of bitcoin has not shown such a fall, so everyone is using the usual patterns.
I consider the current price a fire sale. But there's no assurance that the Bitcoin rainbow chart will remain accurate. As with the rest of the patterns, they're all accurate until they're proven otherwise. There have been precedents of Bitcoin patterns being relevant for some time only to end up wrong at some point, S2F being probably the most popular among them. So not relying too much on those patterns now but I still consider purchases under $20,000 a good decision.
I've already run several math and science models and this is the most likely future:
Charts should be as simple as possible is my take, it relates to consensus and quite simply we have a series of higher lows here [put a ruler on the bottom prices].
While I agree there are higher lows formed in the short-term, there are also lower highs formed (both short-term and long-term, no ruler needed). So while I do appreciate simplistic technical analysis as being one of the purest forms of trend analysis, it would be over-simplifying to say there are higher lows without referencing the lower highs. In this basic sense, between $19K and $21K, price remains neutral nothing else.
Again sticking with the simplistic TA, price remains in a 6 month long downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, despite the possibility for a relief rally to the upside within a longer-term bear market.
Its only short term and can be wiped out but a rally is fair game. Above blue line or weekly average I think BTC can develop some positivity.
Since $20K, a rally has always been fair game imo. The only question is when, and if if not soon then at what price.
Cautious buy at present seems quite fair. Today wider markets have been very negative, I think possibly they do recover over this week before we later find their resolved direction but in context of that mass sale BTC has done very well.
Charts should be as simple as possible is my take, it relates to consensus and quite simply we have a series of higher lows here [put a ruler on the bottom prices]. Its only short term and can be wiped out but a rally is fair game. Above blue line or weekly average I think BTC can develop some positivity. It would be nice to see BTC outshine every other asset this week at least tbh
Charts should be as simple as possible is my take, it relates to consensus and quite simply we have a series of higher lows here [put a ruler on the bottom prices]. Its only short term and can be wiped out but a rally is fair game. Above blue line or weekly average I think BTC can develop some positivity. It would be nice to see BTC outshine every other asset this week at least tbh
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