Is Bitcoin's price "basically a fire sale"? - page 3.

bittraffic

hero member

Activity: 3038

Merit: 617

Quote from: a1 Hashrate LLC2022 on June 29, 2022, 01:30:53 PM

I am doing my best JJG.

I DCA weekly at this time.

I consider any price under $22,222.22 as weekly dca territory

How is it now?
Just like you, I tried DCAing when the price bounced at $29000 but eventually its dipping this this low. I would be very careful this time not to waste my stablecoin. In the last bear market, the price of BTC dips at about -80% which it may also be possible this time which could be $10000.

$20000 sure its fire sale. Anything beyond that is more than black friday sale.

GreatArkansas

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1394

This kind of chart is one of the many reasons why the current price level of Bitcoin is a good buy, if you also take a look at the Fear and Greed index, it is still showing that good to buy too.
To be honest, there are still a lot of people who are afraid and we can't blame them. Even though we will say that it's in the sale, we cannot do something.

jackg

copper member

Activity: 2856

Merit: 3071

https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 29, 2022, 01:05:36 PM

While we've seen other models more or less break, or become irrelevant, such as Stock to Flow and Logarithmic Growth Curve, but do you think the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is still accurate?

I think we'll see movements inversely proportional to bitcoin's inflation but I don't think any model is going to be very accurate on predicting bitcoin's price for a while.

Waiting for one to be invalidated is going to be a bit problematic too - but the pattern of when inflation reduces, price increases has always held and has more reason to be held.

The rainbow chart looks a lot more flexible too with bitcoin's price though (like how it's fallen out of the bottom of the rainbow before so an event like that would be noteworthy but not the end of the model).

a1 Hashrate LLC2022

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 83

I am doing my best JJG.

I DCA weekly at this time.

I consider any price under $22,222.22 as weekly dca territory

dragonvslinux

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 2213

While we've seen other models more or less break, or become irrelevant, such as Stock to Flow and Logarithmic Growth Curve, but do you think the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is still accurate?

Although based on a logarithmic growth curve, it does appear to be more accurate than the alternative log growth that effectively became invalidated in March 2020 (despite price recovering afterwards). Currently the model suggests that price is "basically a fire sale" around $20K, with current bubble territory @ $240K and a maximum low of $41K by the next halving in 2024.

It otherwise consider <$37K as accumulation territory and $50K as still cheap, which feels a bit ironic at current prices. What are your thoughts?

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