Topic: Is statistical analysis enough to make an informed prediction in soccer betting? - page 2. (Read 428 times)

I think it won't be so difficult to get the latest gossip about famous players from big clubs on social media and sports news, but it will be difficult to get the same info of players from less well-known clubs.
Another problem is that not all news about the personal lives of football players can be verified, it's only rumors and gossip.
And it's not certain that personal issues like that will have an impact on the performance of the player and his team on the pitch, especially for pro players who play in the famous club.
So I don't think there is a need to look for such detailed information, unless you have plenty time to do that before place bet on sports.

Off-field factors such as the personal lives of the players, scandals or internal team issues might really be proven to have an influence on on-field performance and is a useful data source. To get this news daily follow some well known sports news sources, official team or player social media and football forums. It is through combining these statistics and the information that you can make more accurate and in-depth predictions.

By keeping track of any news concerning the personal lives or internal team dynamics, you can gather that extra bit of information that pure statistics do not always bring out. Thus, you will be in a better position to discern the background of the statistics and consequently make sound betting decisions.

I think statistical analysis is common knowledges which people should have if they want to do sport betting and these knowledges also can be apply for all sports not soccer only and from my personal experience we cannot always be rely on our luck in sport betting because before deciding to place a bet i think people should be watching the factors such as the latest matches results, injured lists, suspended players, home or away matches and the quality of squad because the conditions of these factors may affect to the outcomes of matches and it's not hard to gets these datas because currently there are plenty of online media who always be reported or to review the performance of the particular teams so people can took the information from those online media as their reference to predict the matches

Statistical analysis works best on games like horse racing. I was just reading the story of Benter a man who cracked the horse-racing code using a computer-programmed algorithm. He built the software using analysis on weather, the type of food the horse ate before racing, the number of days since a horse's last race, and who takes care of the horse. These few observations of his affect the performance of a horse in a race. Like Benter,  for a gambler to manipulate sports games he needs to build his algorithm and study a lot of probability theory on known natural effects on the sports men.

Very interesting for us to review, but for me personally football is not just about data and statistics. true, data and statistics really help us when researching and analyzing to predict a match. and I'm pretty sure, you and I will agree that there are no exact metrics or calculations about sports predictions. every time we are going to make a bet, as usual we will look for all the latest information whatever it is related to the two teams that will compete. every research effort, analysis, is part of minimizing defeat. although, there is no guarantee for that. but we know all that is important, especially involving knowledge and insight. then, we will accumulate the results and try to compare to see each potential and ratio. thus, I have an idea of ​​the options related to the bets that I will choose. unfortunately, football is unique and the results are difficult for us to predict accurately. I mean, in sports or football the results of the match will be determined by both teams when playing their match. no matter how strong the team is, they will not always consistently win every match. for me, this is where our analysis is needed.


This is also interesting, but usually not very effective or in other words we will not see it as a reference in predicting. as far as I understand, usually players who are having problems whatever it is, the club or team will not play them before it is resolved. we have many examples if we want to review it, but it is not too important for me personally.

Football match is a team work and there are always extra players to make sure that the club's performance is stable and that is why lawsuit or a player's personal issues cannot affect the performance of that club. If you are doing your analysis what should be considered is the current form of the clubs, players in the match and the current form of the strikers on goal scoring. You can also use the odds from the sportbook if you are lazy to make researches on the two clubs.

Yes, they all affect the overall performance of a player. Collecting the data would be a big problem though, you have to be a hardcore fan of each team so that you can follow them around. Not even the media can do such a thing.

Not just in football, but in basketball too.
I remember one time when a good team lost their game because they went from East to West, and then another because of the long bus ride that made them exhausted. These things cannot be seen which is why games are unpredictable, there are so many little details that we don't have a reach. All we can do is rely on that odds and maybe a bit of luck too.

In collecting that kind of news daily, you would have to literally follow up all the daily news on each team your looking out for to get their data, you can follow up on blogs and sports journal's that are saddled with the responsibility of giving a daily report on teams daily and weekly activities. However scandals like lawsuit, fighting between teammates and rest of it, can actually affect the overall performance of a team, because once a particular hitman of a club has been involved with a certain scandal, he can be kept on the bench, thereby losing playing times which will affect the team, because he is one of the players that the team has been built round upon, so him not playing brings a setback to the team.

So scandal too can be a source of data for gamblers to use and make informed decisions when trying to make predictions.

As a gambler that involves in soccer bet, the major aspect you have to concentrate on to get your predictions is history that have existed between the two clubs which is the events that usually take place when both teams meet, although things might also change based the fact that the players in both team has retired or soldout but be it as it may considering the present form and league position of the football teams helps a gambler to arrive at a particular decision on which prediction to consider, although predictions are uncertain because you might predict as a gambler based on what you see to be most likely occurrence thats expected to be the outcome of a football encounter between too teams but some things may stand against your preferred selection, for instance your preferred team based your research may be defeated because of how unlucky they are in that particular football session or unexpected injury, there are many things to consider but in all what matters is luck because no matter how good you are in prediction, the uncertainty behind the final outcome of a soccer event can never be made known to anyone.

I do not think that a personal life of a player have any thing to do with their performance on the pitch (field of play) or maybe perhaps, thr player might be into drugs, or alcohol and any other substances that are not really healthy to the body, and might affect their performance on the pitch, but this is not really a factor to put into consideration since players are often tested for substances like this, and any one such a substance is found on his or her blood; is immediately disqualified and even banned from playing totally.

And talking about professional lifestyle, like how often a player misses practise and so on, I do not think this can be an effective factor to consider when choosing a team to place a bet on.
What is most important for me, is the general performance statistics of the team/club, like how well they play, pass balls, score goals and so on, this and together with luck, is what to really pay attention to when wanting to choose a team to bet on.

I'm not betting on soccer, but I believe the questions apply to all sports because statistical analysis exists in almost all sports. I don't think it is enough; there are still factors that are hidden from the public, like what you mentioned


These factors may have an impact on the team's performance because they are all humans and can be affected by negativity; the management kept it hidden from the public. In fact, they even paid people to keep it a secret until the tournament was finished.
When a team suffers from unexpected losses, expect something to happen internally.

statistical analysis will indeed help us increase the chances of winning when betting. but it will not be close to 100%. you have to be more rational about the facts on the field. the readiness of several key players in the team and other news can also affect the chances. but related to the player's personal life, it may affect his performance. it may be related when you bet on a particular player who scores.
I prefer to follow general club or team news rather than personal players. we can find everything on social media, even just before the match takes place, usually a news update will appear that we can use as analysis material.

I think he is pertaining to the issue when it was affected a star players that contributed a huge role in the match. A personal problem sometimes affects players game, I don’t know specifically the history on foot ball but this is common problem in sports like basketball that a star player can perform well because he is thinking with his personal problem.

Also watching after game interview from players sometimes they disclose this kind of problem that partly affect their performance. I think this is the issue which the @Op considered as factor that can affect the game.

I believe that statistics do help, they can be a good parameter for starting a bet. But obviously other details matter a lot, such as the momentum of the teams that will be playing and other minor details like injuries

An interesting example was Bayern Leverkusen last season
All the statistics led us to believe that Bayern Munich were going to be champions again, but an incredible run by Leverkusen secured the title. In this case, the team's momentum mattered more than the statistics of other years

Does anyone here only bet based on statistics?

I think just your first paragraph is already anough parameter to make judgements with for the result of a match as I don't think thr other personalize of the gambler would actually matter so much as long as they are being able to deliver the task ahead of them.
diving directly to answer your question based on the caption, then I would say that, statistical analysis will go a very long way to impact thr result of a game if well done.

one sweet and funny thing about gambling is that, no one is absolutely sure of what the gambling result would be or what the outcome of a particular match would be not even the players because it's a competition everyone would want to win and maintain a brand and reputation and you don't expect them jeopardize on that .

Most of the time, the statistics you mentioned above are some of the factors that contributes to the outcome of a match but it is not certain that following up those statistics will guarantee winning but it helps in making predictions of the possible outcomes of the current matches but despite that predictions are made from previous meetings and previous matches of the both teams, things can still go contrary to their statistics.

All these information are late news as some of them are made known even while the match is ongoing so a lot of things affects the outcome of a match as against their statistical analysis of which a player being given a red card in a match can also attribute to a match going in different direction from their initial statistics or probably the weather condition of the game, either rainy game, snow game or sunny game all affects the current statistics of a team as against their previous statistics.

If yes, then someone could built an algorithm and feedback necessary information such as data to find the results of every match but in reality it isn't the case so stats plays a part to certain extent but it will not be enough or any news or data to predict the winner of any game with 100%. The numbers varies from what kind of games and what level they are playing and many more so all you can do is just hope after your analysis that this team is more likely to win.

Indeed stats is a very useful resources on sports betting since it’s your basis to determine what’s the potential of the team. Without it, we are just gambling based on pure luck just like playing casino games.


Definitely, Players is still human and they are also subjected to this kind of mental weakness in time of problem. There’s a lot of players that can’t perform well and sometimes have a break when they have a serious personal issue so it’s important to consider it especially if that person do an important role for the team.

Yes, it can, because players cannot concentrate on their games if there are bad things running in their minds, especially if it's a scandal the team may be the favorite to win the games, these internal issues can harm the motivation of the players that will result into upsets, motivations of the players is something that the management of the team are always working on to make the team play harmoniously and have a strong dedication to win.

The management always sees to it that internal issues like this, will not come out because they know, that it will have an impact on the team and how the public looks at the team, sports news reporters are always looking for a scandal, so if you want this news and you are a bettor then follow sports and celebrity reporters.

as a sports person, one thing that's common with most of us is that we are conversant with what's going on with each team and also follow up on the private life of the key players that make up each team. The predominant statistics you can easily find iether from sports journalist or from the leagues site is stats like, the position of the team on the table, past head to head games played and the results which also goes to guide you on what might play out at present and some other indices that's obviously visible for all sports lovers. Outside of those, thier are times when certain player aren't in good terms with the coach of the team or thier might be instances when argument erupt from the dressing room. Those things affect a team negatively and can cause then to lose against a smaller team.  It's not as though you have to analyse those things for every predictin you're making but you should know some key factors that might also help to influence the outcome of the game and from there make a better decision.

in this global age when news travels almost faster than the spead of light, it's hard for an athlete to have a law suit or for fight to break out between players and you don't get to see that in the media. Journalist and sports bloggers are always on their toes looking for news and you're rest assured that if you're an active fellow of the sports you usually bet on, no news will pass you unaware.  The gambling section of the forum has been too busy with almost everything that's going on in the worlds sports arena and I doubt thier is anything you would want to know about the private life of key players in most sports that you can't get from here. Apart from this forum, a lot of sports bloggers gives information like that on there pages and a simple following of them will give you the required information that will become a source of additional help while making your prediction.