Topic: Is Technical analysis bullshit? - page 2. (Read 882 times)

I dont get it, why it would be bullshit? if you are a trader you must know that trading and technical analysis are like a couple in here , and it is a must

Technical analysis is always very useful but only when you can do it and understand it. I think that the newbie unfortunately will not understand anything in TA.

No, except if they are newbie traders. A lot of traders still make use of TA and it works sometimes, whereas sometimes it does not. Nevertheless, that is how market basically is and for a market as volatile as cryptocurrency, a lot can change things pretty fast, so it is best not to always rely fully on TA or simply keep a very tight stop loss most of the time.

Technical analysis has failed me several times but stop loss will never do. The reason why the stop loss is there is because the possibility of technical analysis failing may be there, so I guess we just have to remember to put stop-loss once we enter the trade. Trailing stop-loss is an improved version which might be possible through the same technical analysis only.

In practice, it doesn't work anywhere like that. First of all, it is not about "better odds than the standard 50/50 shots". It is your total in the balance of profits earned and losses suffered which counts in the end, not the number of "shots" and the relationship between misses and hits per se. You can make like 90% losing trades and still come off profitable in the end simply because with just one profitable trade you can cancel out a dozen of losing ones, and with a vengeance. Further, I'm not sure if you can implement this approach and achieve such an outcome using standard TA even theoretically as this has nothing to do with the essence of technical analysis as such.

Yes TA not really work in crypto trading because crypto  has high volatility, any crypto going up more than 10 times just in amonth and this is because that coin has strong fundamental and solid team member . So to maximize profit for the better spend more times to learn about fundamental of the project. Fundamental analysis is more usefull in crypto trading than TA.

Technical analysis is very good in financial investment and it plays a very good role in big financial markets such as Forex and stock market but in the cryptocurrency market I do not trust too much in analysis. technical because the trading volume is too small so it is very easy to influence the technical data is not accurate.

They actually can't predict the right time to enter or to exit. All the different layers within the TA book only make sure that in certain situations you have better odds than the standard 50/50 shots. As long as the better odds make sure traders settle more profitable than losing trades, they have done exceptionally well. The few losing trades that occur are mostly seen as collateral damage. It will be interesting to see how the price will behave once institutions dominate this market with their algo bots. The further we move forward, the less influence retail traders will have with their unstable behavior and emotions. I personally believe that the market will experience less volatility once it happens.

Let's admit it, TA is no more than a crutch, a mental crutch. Basically, you stick to it when you simply don't know what to do but still want to do something and feel like there's some logic and reason behind your actions. It makes you feel more confident but ultimately it is a false feeling that won't lead you anywhere but most likely right into the red zone. It can help you see the trend but you don't need TA for that as you can easily see it with a naked eye without a lot of mumbo jumbo and hand waving.

Keep it simple, man!

I've done lots of posts about this subject on various threads but I'll sum up some of my thoughts in a very condensed format this time.

Common sense is about 80% of trading.. buy low sell high.. don't get cut by falling daggers... don't fear the blood and view it as an opportunity.

1) If you buy at the bottom of a cycle, there is no danger in your position.. its established a bottom price and usually can only go up from there.
2) Most people who try to do TA do so in what's commonly called the "dumb zone".  You cant play 30-50 sat moves on a daily basis going all in or all out and expect this to work.. thats not really a strategy and will break down.. you're almost luckier if it breaks down the first few times you try it so you won't try it and get really burned when it really matters or learn from the wrong thing and really screw up when you add more money.
3) Prices that something has reached before in sats is much easier to achieve a second time over trying to predict unproven highs.. buy LOW and take the easy money.. wishing welling prices is just emotional and will not help... if you buy tron at 300 sats.. expect the easy returns to be where it overcorrected.. don't hold for unproven all time highs.. if you go 100% into profits on something you better be selling some.  Whales don't care about your long-term goals and will dump on you in a heartbeat to get you to lose hope, panic, and sell to them waiting at the bottom again.

TA is the other 20%.. it helps you min/max your positions by making smarter exits/entries..

Sell below fibonacci retracement resistances and ladder out.. sell some and participate in almost any runup, but save some of your bigger bags to sell at higher prices,. don't go all in or out, just set goals and zones BEFOREHAND so you won't get caught up in fomo or fud.. 80% of my trades happen when I'm not even paying attention.. I set ladder buys and sells on things I'm interested in and it all just orchestrates itself... If my bags get too heavy towards alts, i dump some bags earlier.. if I'm getting kind of skimpy selling upwards, I can become more risky with top exit points.. it should always be a revolving door of covering the top and bottom all the time, no exceptions.. no all in alts 100% ever.

Here is an article I wrote this more in-depth, and talking about the types of TA i use... but like i said TA isn't gonna really do much for you if you don't understand market cycles, avoiding emotional stimulus, and generally buy at the wrong times.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.30246763

Honestly, I'm not much of a fan of technical analysis when it comes to crypto trading. Yes, there are some recurring patterns, but there are also equal to, or more examples where a similar pattern emerged that was followed by unexpected events. I think whilst it works in the short term, e.g. certain signs like the bull flag are quite strong, long term predictions, or predictions based on previous trends are just BS. Stick to the tried and true when trading, it will do better I would expect.

we cant completely rule out technical analysis is bull shit but in the bear market technical analysis and less volume in exchanger the market will most move in one direction

Although technical analysis cannot assure you success in trading cryptocurrencies, it’s not bullshit. It can offer some help. With the help of technical analysis, traders and investors can predict the right time to enter and exit a trade thereby enabling good returns. Information like support, resistance, chart pattern, momentum of the market, volatility, and trader’s psychology are just some examples of types of information provided by technical analysis. So obviously its not at all some bullshit people have made millions out of it.

That makes a lot of sense and put things into perspective. TA is just a tool among many tools but you need to use it in addition other tools (i.e. fundamental analysis) rather than replacing it. Then TA has it's place.

Technical analysis is just method of price of prediction to know when the price goes up and goes down but the final result depending on the market, we must follow it just because of our technical analysis is wrong doesn't mean it is bullshit, also technical fundamental is method to prediction of the price, the most important is always use method analysis which gives us active profit from trading activity.

Technical analysis is a tool used as reference in your decision making yet it is effective if it was not made biased and based in a data were reliable and will get
reliable results.

There are many indicators and tools available in TA, so which one you should choose? Should there be a different TA for choosing which TA methodology to stick to? What if two indicators give you contradictory predictions? Obviously, they cannot be right at the same time as the price can't go in both directions simultaneously. If you think along this path, you will inevitably arrive at the conclusion that TA is more like a broken clock in essence. It can be right at certain times but how is that fundamentally different from a broken clock showing the right time twice a day?

Actually TA is used to predict some possibilities, so TA is not used to provide accurate forecasts. It's just that TA tells us a key, such as: volume, exact value, price and market direction based on buy and sell orders.

So far TA can still be used for that, but besides TA there is still FA. Why is that? Because crypto is still new, and many countries have legally not yet legalized crypto. So, it is only natural that people become FUD and FOMO.

if you are really good in doing analysis, then i think that doing that is the best way to go, because you are going to have a lot of knowledge because of that. Also, it is more convenient if you are doign scalping

You might wanna combine it it all your MA, RSI, fibo and MacD for it and whatever that comes along that you learn to somehow work on it but you can't solely rely to indicators though. All the technical analysis are going to be defeated by a fud news though. A single price dip can lead traders to panic and a individual with a lot of BTC can make that happen.

Although technical analysis does not work accurate  in crypto trading but we are trader still need it to know level of price,  i think all trader before doing buy and sell firstly always look in to chart. Make Combination of technical analysis and fundamental is better to predict the price of any crypto. In my opinion TA still usefull for crypto trading.