Is Technical analysis bullshit? - page 7.

gabbie2010

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Quote from: developer4z on June 02, 2018, 01:49:54 PM

I am not yet sure if TA actually works with crypto currencies.
I haven't had any success with pure TA so far. However fundamentals and news seems to do better job at predicting the price of a crypto.

Or Am I doing it wrong? I tried a simple RSI strategy to trade and it didn't workout well.

Should I even bother with technical analysis when it comes to cryptos?

A good trader will not rely only on Technical analysis alone he had to incorporates fundamental analysis to his trading system, fundamentals is the driving force of all markets Cryptos, forex, spot, commodities markets thus TA is just like a guide and in most cases Cryptos markets does defies TA e.g when the whales dumps btc all TA fails.

sotoshihero

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Quote from: Genemind on June 02, 2018, 09:11:02 PM

Quote from: developer4z on June 02, 2018, 01:49:54 PM

I am not yet sure if TA actually works with crypto currencies.
I haven't had any success with pure TA so far. However fundamentals and news seems to do better job at predicting the price of a crypto.

Or Am I doing it wrong? I tried a simple RSI strategy to trade and it didn't workout well.

Should I even bother with technical analysis when it comes to cryptos?

TA can be used as a guidance when investing or trading. However, ypu should not base ypur deciaion solely in TA since crypto market demand is affected by many factors.

Well TA is fine, but trading with cryptocurrency is different. Cryptovurrency can be manipulated and your TA becomes useless. Remember that crypto trading is not regulated and whales is free to play around.

longminh123

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Quote from: developer4z on June 02, 2018, 01:49:54 PM

I am not yet sure if TA actually works with crypto currencies.
I haven't had any success with pure TA so far. However fundamentals and news seems to do better job at predicting the price of a crypto.

Or Am I doing it wrong? I tried a simple RSI strategy to trade and it didn't workout well.

Should I even bother with technical analysis when it comes to cryptos?

I am a person who never believes in technical analysis through graphs. I think it is a joke. Because the market will never be evaluated on the figure, it will be judged by the actual economic situation and the different levels of inflation.
I will often learn about economic history and read more articles to make my portfolio.

Genemind

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Quote from: developer4z on June 02, 2018, 01:49:54 PM

I am not yet sure if TA actually works with crypto currencies.
I haven't had any success with pure TA so far. However fundamentals and news seems to do better job at predicting the price of a crypto.

Or Am I doing it wrong? I tried a simple RSI strategy to trade and it didn't workout well.

Should I even bother with technical analysis when it comes to cryptos?

TA can be used as a guidance when investing or trading. However, ypu should not base ypur deciaion solely in TA since crypto market demand is affected by many factors.

adaseb

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Quote from: developer4z on June 02, 2018, 01:49:54 PM

I am not yet sure if TA actually works with crypto currencies.
I haven't had any success with pure TA so far. However fundamentals and news seems to do better job at predicting the price of a crypto.

Or Am I doing it wrong? I tried a simple RSI strategy to trade and it didn't workout well.

Should I even bother with technical analysis when it comes to cryptos?

Its not only with Crypto.

TA has the same results in Stocks, Futures, Metal markets, Yields, Bonds, etc.

You won't find a TA that works 100% of the time. Basically at best you can find some indicator that is correct 20-25% of the time, use it and basically use a good risk to reward and get out before it turns again you.

If it was this easy my Grandmother would be trading instead of doing manual labour.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: pawel7777 on June 02, 2018, 03:58:02 PM

1 - TA won't predict the future. No one serious would ever claim that.

I disagree with that, because I've heard many people--all very serious and earnest--claim just that, that looking at charts will tell you exactly what's going to happen in the future. That's basically what TA is.

Yes, I think TA is bullshit and I've said this many times. Fortunately a large part of Wall Street has realized this as well and don't employ as many technical analysts as they used to. Fundamental analysis is the only way to go in the stock market.

In crypto, I would think that "fundamental analysis" in the form of just looking at the news is useless. Why? Because everyone else is doing the same thing and using the same strategy, plus news can be inaccurate or downright fake. You may as well be trading on rumors. In fact I've also said that there's no such thing as FA in crypto, because there aren't any real fundamentals to analyze like there are with stocks. All of the metrics like P/E and so forth that you have in the stock market are all missing in crypto. The only thing crypto has is supply and demand, and the supply is always known, so the only thing to analyze is demand....and how do you predict that accurately?

enawati

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Technical analysis indeed does not work perpectly, but this analysis is helpfull to know the situation of the market, from TA like price pattern or candlestick pattern we can decide the market on bullish, bearish, reversal or continously follow the trend. I can not trading without analysis the charting and without some indikator. Can be by use combination of TA and news of crypto will more help to predict the price where will to go.

flying_bit

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TA is somehow good in cryptocurrencies but there's a lot to consider including news and other foreseen events.
I just TA for crypto like Eth and BTC but for ico tokens, TA is not that reliable coz ofcourse limited history thus difficult to know the trend.

developer4z

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Quote from: pawel7777 on June 02, 2018, 03:58:02 PM

1 - TA won't predict the future. No one serious would ever claim that. At very best it could increase your chances of accurate prediction of market behaviour based on the past movements. It's not deemed very effective even for traditional markets.
2 - TA is completely useless for the market that is often being moved by unforeseen events, i.e. China bans BTC, Mt Gox coin dump, large exchange gets hacked etc.
2 - Self-fulfilling prophecy. If some popular analyst(s), with very large following, present their TA, that itself could actually move the market.

Thank you for your insight.

If TA won't predict the future, why everyone emphasizes on it so much? I am thinking we could probably skip all the mumbojumbo indicators and simply buy the coin with good fundamentals everytime it falls 25%+. I think I am even tired of chasing news as well. It sometimes falls when the news/product is announced. Markets are crazy!

developer4z

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Quote from: electron-coin on June 02, 2018, 07:19:35 PM

For my opinion technical analysis works fine on crypto currencies! You just need to constantly study and practice it every day. Use only RSI is not enough. It is necessary to use many tools. And as a novice you need to check the information you saw with different tools to make sure of the solution. Later, when you have the experience, you will be able to quickly pick up 2-3 tools to check whether you should buy/sell. In each situation you will use different tools and this is normal. The candle analysis helps a lot. Of course you need to constantly be aware of all the news! Crypto currency is heavily influenced by news. But this is not the only strategy, this is a supplement to technical analysis.
In any case, everyone chooses for himself the strategy. The main thing is that a person would be a successful trader, and in what way he achieves this unimportantly. I wish you to find the right strategy for you!

I do use vortex and moving averages along with RSI. There are so many false signals that i gave up and am just holding coins instead of trading. Almost always my stoploss gets hit. I did the backtesting too! It seems just not profitable enough in cryptos.

electron-coin

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For my opinion technical analysis works fine on crypto currencies! You just need to constantly study and practice it every day. Use only RSI is not enough. It is necessary to use many tools. And as a novice you need to check the information you saw with different tools to make sure of the solution. Later, when you have the experience, you will be able to quickly pick up 2-3 tools to check whether you should buy/sell. In each situation you will use different tools and this is normal. The candle analysis helps a lot. Of course you need to constantly be aware of all the news! Crypto currency is heavily influenced by news. But this is not the only strategy, this is a supplement to technical analysis.
In any case, everyone chooses for himself the strategy. The main thing is that a person would be a successful trader, and in what way he achieves this unimportantly. I wish you to find the right strategy for you!

developer4z

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Quote from: gentlemand on June 02, 2018, 05:21:20 PM

I think it's a crock of shit myself. Most markets are too thin and too rigged and populated with the too stupid. All it takes is one misinterpreted piece of 'news' for things to explode or crumble.

If anyone can point me to a time stamped set of predictions that's above average in its guesses then I'd like to see it. The only one I'm aware of is Masterluc and his predictions started to fall apart this year.

I'd like to see that too! News seems to make bigger random movements to make technical analysis seem like a joke in this market.

palle11

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Quote from: Getcoinsite on June 02, 2018, 05:25:19 PM

Technically analyzation is good for basis but it doesn't necessarily mean this will make us gain,and we must not just rely on this only instead adding research and trust youre instincts cant give another thing.

I myself dont really believe in TA but i much more likely believe in my instincts and luckily it helps me find what i needed to gain

Yes friend, I think instinct is part of trade and it helps alot but despite that, TA guides the instinct to make a decision because if the technical analysis don't make you see and understand why the market is made sometimes the way it is.

batang_bitcoin

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The crypto market has been unpredictable so TA's doesn't guarantee the real thing.

But take those informative and interesting TA's with valid facts and analysis, the way the analyst reads and predicts the market base on his opinion.

Getcoinsite

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Technically analyzation is good for basis but it doesn't necessarily mean this will make us gain,and we must not just rely on this only instead adding research and trust youre instincts cant give another thing.

I myself dont really believe in TA but i much more likely believe in my instincts and luckily it helps me find what i needed to gain

gentlemand

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I think it's a crock of shit myself. Most markets are too thin and too rigged and populated with the too stupid. All it takes is one misinterpreted piece of 'news' for things to explode or crumble.

If anyone can point me to a time stamped set of predictions that's above average in its guesses then I'd like to see it. The only one I'm aware of is Masterluc and his predictions started to fall apart this year.

Ahiaba

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Ignore technical analysis of crypto currency trading at your own peril. The impacts of technical analysis cannot be over emphasize as its impact is so much like that of fundamental analysis of the crypto currency market. For you to be a successful crypto currency trader you require a sound knowledge of both technical and fundamental analysis of the market.

omfg.xekcep

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TA does not work. Ask yourself if TA were work then trading robots would trade instead of real traders but it is not so because professianals trade themselves. I do not assest that TA does not completely work because sometimes it works but it is an unuseful instrument if it works just sometimes.
The best instrument on market is low price and there is no better.

crypmike

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of course, technical analysis works in crypto as well as in any other market
the reason is the same as always — TA is about crowd's psychology
You should understand why graphical patterns appear and you will realize why it works

richardsNY

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If enough people are following and actually acting based on what the charts are pointing out, then it's very likely going to work, but this market is too unpredictable to purely focus on that. TA works pretty well based on how traditional investors and institutions apply it on stocks and such. The crypto market is literally infested with empty headed fools gambling their savings based on nothing but hope. I think it's safe to say that with how this market will become more professional throughout the coming years, TA will become far more of a fundamental driver than it is right now, but that directly means the volatility will significantly decrease as well.

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