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Topic: Is technical analysis bullshit? - page 3. (Read 4588 times)

hero member
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March 23, 2015, 12:06:38 AM
#33
If it did work (by work I mean, allow you to predict future short term price movements from past data with more than 50% accuracy) then everyone would do it, and the profit would be eliminated, so it would no longer work. Any method of predicting future (short term) price movements cannot consistently work by this logic, without insider information.
The same story with chess. If some winning chess strategy existed, everybody would learn it and become the champion, which is not happening. Therefore winning in chess is pure luck, like winning a lottery.   Grin
hero member
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March 22, 2015, 10:36:57 PM
#32
It´s a tool and like with other relatively complex tools you need to learn and train to be able to understand and use them. Otherwise you may very well be clueless as to their functionality - I guess.
legendary
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
March 22, 2015, 09:47:28 PM
#31
My father used to work as an economist, he studied macroeconomics in uni yet he calls bullshit on technical analysis.

I've tried doing TA myself and I can tell you that it's really hard to come to a logical conclusion solely relying on statistical evidence. Many people that do TA professionally base their predictions on real world events, they study the news more than the stats but that's something they'll never tell you.

There's too much hypocrisy when it comes to people that claim to be good at TA. I personally wouldn't say that it's bullshit. I wouldn't base my trading movements on an analysis alone especially with bitcoin. In the case that you're starting to think that TA TA is bullshit, then you should believe that bitcoin TA is bullshit*2.

You know how volatile and open bitcoin is, there's no way to predict long or short term movements solely on stats.
yvv
legendary
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March 22, 2015, 09:40:38 PM
#30
Blah blah blah....

You can't extrapolate past statistical data onto future. Period.

And why is that, exactly?
....

Because extrapolations lie. Try it, learn it hard way.
legendary
Activity: 1988
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Beyond Imagination
March 22, 2015, 08:48:58 PM
#29
Buy and hold is much much more useful, especially for bitcoin, no amount of TA can defeat a long term buy and hold strategy Grin
full member
Activity: 239
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March 22, 2015, 07:23:11 PM
#28
Blah blah blah....

You can't extrapolate past statistical data onto future. Period.

And why is that, exactly? If past market patterns such as price/indicator divergences have repeatedly yielded a statistically significant amount of valid predictive signals, why should one assume it would suddenly stop doing so in the future?

Granted, no TA pattern always has the same guaranteed outcome, but there are many (such as the aforementioned divergences) that historically have been shown to have predictive value beyond random chance, and when used in conjunction with other relatively reliable patterns, greatly increases the probability of a projected outcome as further confirmation rules out more uncertainty caused by the inherently probabilistic signals.

Of course things can also change, and previously reliable patterns may at some time end up not working as well (or at all), which will be noticed and taken into account by the analyst in order to adapt to a dynamic market. But until such time I do not see why it is "fundamentally wrong" to assume past data of market behavior can be extrapolated into the future.
uki
legendary
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cryptojunk bag holder
March 22, 2015, 06:14:18 PM
#27
True, TA is a tool (sometimes highly overrated)
Fundamentals are more important, especially with something historic like Bitcoin.
That is very true, and it has to be clearly said that for now we had very little fundamental developments that could support the price of Bitcoin. For now the two past bubbles were made on the pure speculation, with not much fundamentals involved.
legendary
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March 22, 2015, 05:45:22 PM
#26
If you have above average intelligence, can learn quickly and have the patience to watch how and why the market moves, yes you can learn how to apply TA correctly and make money. There are professionals doing it every day.

Most people, however, are not open minded, of below average intelligence and are not patient. For them, TA does not work. Trading attracts some of the brightest minds around and the market will quickly take your money if you don't know what you're doing.

When the Euro was crashing a TA expert said the indicators were stressed to almost their maximum and were useless in that situation. Ironically, that's exactly when you want to predict what the price will do the most. Do you think in extreme crashes that most TA indicators are useless?

Insider information = best TA
sr. member
Activity: 348
Merit: 250
March 22, 2015, 05:39:59 PM
#25
If you have above average intelligence, can learn quickly and have the patience to watch how and why the market moves, yes you can learn how to apply TA correctly and make money. There are professionals doing it every day.

Most people, however, are not open minded, of below average intelligence and are not patient. For them, TA does not work. Trading attracts some of the brightest minds around and the market will quickly take your money if you don't know what you're doing.

When the Euro was crashing a TA expert said the indicators were stressed to almost their maximum and were useless in that situation. Ironically, that's exactly when you want to predict what the price will do the most. Do you think in extreme crashes that most TA indicators are useless?
hero member
Activity: 924
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March 22, 2015, 03:06:47 PM
#24
If you have above average intelligence, can learn quickly and have the patience to watch how and why the market moves, yes you can learn how to apply TA correctly and make money. There are professionals doing it every day.

Most people, however, are not open minded, of below average intelligence and are not patient. For them, TA does not work. Trading attracts some of the brightest minds around and the market will quickly take your money if you don't know what you're doing.
member
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mene mene tekel upharsin
March 22, 2015, 01:08:43 PM
#23
Price is demonstrably not a random walk. This implies that there exists some TA that yields results.

For example, one of the best-studied deviations from a random walk is the phenomenon of 'drift', or trending behavior.
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
March 22, 2015, 06:11:59 AM
#22
Blah blah blah....

I resemble that remark!
yvv
legendary
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March 21, 2015, 10:15:32 PM
#21
TA provides you with very important statistics about the past of the market. Projecting it onto future is fundamentally wrong. It is like predicting an outcome of dice throw based on past results. You need to have fundamental data in addition to past statistics to predict a future market.


Nonsense!
In trading, there are only 2 outcomes to price movement from the current price rather than 6 or 12 like with dice... Right there odds are more in our favor. Then we have other data like volume. This tells us where more force is being applied, up or down, plus a multitude of other methods for trying to determine what direction comes next. They aren't even close to the same thing.

I use fundamentals to say that as long as Bitcoin doesn't die, the far future should go way up, and that is it. The fundamentals don't mean shit in a mostly speculative market. $2->$1200->150 in 2.5 years is a clear example that fundamentals aren't at play here. One more example would be the numerous large-scale businesses that began accepting Bitcoin over the last year, and only sparked pump and dumps.

Note, this is not a dig at the fundamentals, only that they aren't currently important for the price discovery or used by anyone but bag holders (forced or otherwise) or long term investors (who fall into "otherwise").

Blah blah blah....

You can't extrapolate past statistical data onto future. Period.
legendary
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Legen -wait for it- dary
March 21, 2015, 09:25:24 PM
#20
TA provides you with very important statistics about the past of the market. Projecting it onto future is fundamentally wrong. It is like predicting an outcome of dice throw based on past results. You need to have fundamental data in addition to past statistics to predict a future market.


Nonsense!
In trading, there are only 2 outcomes to price movement from the current price rather than 6 or 12 like with dice... Right there odds are more in our favor. Then we have other data like volume. This tells us where more force is being applied, up or down, plus a multitude of other methods for trying to determine what direction comes next. They aren't even close to the same thing.

I use fundamentals to say that as long as Bitcoin doesn't die, the far future should go way up, and that is it. The fundamentals don't mean shit in a mostly speculative market. $2->$1200->150 in 2.5 years is a clear example that fundamentals aren't at play here. One more example would be the numerous large-scale businesses that began accepting Bitcoin over the last year, and only sparked pump and dumps.

Note, this is not a dig at the fundamentals, only that they aren't currently important for the price discovery or used by anyone but bag holders (forced or otherwise) or long term investors (who fall into "otherwise").
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
March 21, 2015, 09:23:14 PM
#19
Markets with meaningful volume and depth tend to behave in more or less the same manner. There´s profit taking, going long and short, retesting highs and lows et cetera. So, technical analysis is useful - to an extent. Nothing is written in stone. There can be sudden black swans and all sorts of surprises.
sr. member
Activity: 427
Merit: 250
March 21, 2015, 09:18:00 PM
#18
TA is just like homeopathy, the amount of science behind it is so tiny that it doesn't produce any visible effects.
hero member
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Legendary trader
March 21, 2015, 09:14:04 PM
#17
Oh and I can also give examples of when TA is bullshit:
That is in low volume markets. Like most altcoins. Don't try to go with TA there. It will most likely not work. Altcoins are just thin markets insider info pump and dumps.

TA is quite helpful in bitcoin trading. Smiley
How could anything that gives you more information about what is going on not be helpful?
hero member
Activity: 854
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Legendary trader
March 21, 2015, 09:07:58 PM
#16
I agree on using TA with success is a lot about experience, and some specific kind of intelligence (dedication) too.

It is definitely not for everyone. You could see TA as a way to get more insight in the market.
More information is always good. Still you need to know what to do with this information of course...
yvv
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1000
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March 21, 2015, 09:06:10 PM
#15
TA provides you with very important statistics about the past of the market. Projecting it onto future is fundamentally wrong. It is like predicting an outcome of dice throw based on past results. You need to have fundamental data in addition to past statistics to predict a future market.
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
March 21, 2015, 09:04:01 PM
#14
TA isn't for everyone. If it were, everyone would trade stocks and no one would go to their normal job and brokers/advisers would be out of work.

This is not possible. Trading is a zero sum game? You can't have everyone making money out of it. After costs, most people are guaranteed to lose money. This is true regardless of how many people there are playing the game, surely?

I didn't say everyone would profit. If everyone is making money, no one is making money. The point I was making with that sentence was that not everyone can effectively apply TA and it comes down to a LOT of variables in understanding what the charts are telling you, why the indicators do what they do, what could come next and what effect the market participants will have on such future outcomes. Simply reading an explanation about the MACD or RSI on investopedia isn't going to make you know how to use them properly. You need to know the formula, for one, but more importantly, why one dump in price can make it go down deep while another dump may only make it go down a little. Basically, there are other underlying factors than just overbought/oversold. Something that takes experience to understand. Something that many people don't have patience for before writing off the whole idea of TA as "bulshit".
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