Is technical analysis bullshit? - page 4.

Bit_Happy

legendary

Activity: 2114

Merit: 1040

A Great Time to Start Something!

Quote from: BillyBobZorton on March 21, 2015, 07:13:35 PM

Quote from: mcplums on March 21, 2015, 07:04:06 PM

I havn't done any research on this subject, but it seems that it has to be?

If it did work (by work I mean, allow you to predict future short term price movements from past data with more than 50% accuracy) then everyone would do it, and the profit would be eliminated, so it would no longer work. Any method of predicting future (short term) price movements cannot consistently work by this logic, without insider information.

Am I missing something?

Predicting the market is objectively impossible. TA is based around % chances of something happening. It's a bit like predicting the weather.

True, TA is a tool (sometimes highly overrated)
Fundamentals are more important, especially with something historic like Bitcoin.

Morecoin Freeman

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 503

Legendary trader

There is not one single indicator that will scream BUY or SELL for you, but if you know how to interpret some of the many indicators they could definitely be helpful. Basically the theory behind it is mathematically proven. Still you need to know what to do with this data.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

Three words - self fulfilling prophecy. If enough people believe, then it becomes valid.

mcplums

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 100

Quote from: bri912678 on March 21, 2015, 08:34:58 PM

I have frequently seen 5 different predictions from 5 different TA guys who are all using the same form of TA.

This sounds exactly like astrology.

bri912678

sr. member

Activity: 348

Merit: 250

I have frequently seen 5 different predictions from 5 different TA guys who are all using the same form of TA. If it was an exact science all their predictions should be identical, and correct. It's obviously not an exact science, and none of them get it right all the time.

Q7

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

More or less I would say that. They are just trying to predict price movement using analysis tools and I think the more time spent trying to understand, the more confusing it gets and most of the time it's not even accurate. I remember seeing ads about paying for the guy to teach how to analyze charts but I was thinking, why try to earn from the participants fee when the guy could game the market by himself.

mcplums

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 100

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on March 21, 2015, 07:20:41 PM

TA isn't for everyone. If it were, everyone would trade stocks and no one would go to their normal job and brokers/advisers would be out of work.

This is not possible. Trading is a zero sum game? You can't have everyone making money out of it. After costs, most people are guaranteed to lose money. This is true regardless of how many people there are playing the game, surely?

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on March 21, 2015, 07:20:41 PM

Take Raystonn for instance. He has already proven that he doesn't understand it. Tongue

That's what you got from that post? Lol.

mcplums

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 100

Quote from: BillyBobZorton on March 21, 2015, 07:13:35 PM

Predicting the market is objectively impossible. TA is based around % chances of something happening. It's a bit like predicting the weather.

But it can't even work for probabilities of something happening- again, if it was accurate, you could trade on the information (you can arrive at a consistent profit if your 51% chance of a price rise is correct), eliminating the profit and it wouldn't work anymore. You genuinely might as well toss a coin.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

It works for me! It's definitely not a 100% guarantee but any edge over the next guy is a definite plus. Also, it's not about predictions, per-se, but more about finding more probable outcomes. For instance, indicators can show a building bias before it is noticeable through forum sentiment (entry points). They can also show weakness from lack of strength and dwindling momentum before the trend ends (exit points).

TA isn't for everyone. If it were, everyone would trade stocks and no one would go to their normal job and brokers/advisers would be out of work. Take Raystonn for instance. He has already proven that he doesn't understand it. Tongue

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Yes, it's bullshit. It's just as much bullshit as fundamental analysis, astrology, and central banking.

BillyBobZorton

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1028

Quote from: mcplums on March 21, 2015, 07:04:06 PM

I havn't done any research on this subject, but it seems that it has to be?

If it did work (by work I mean, allow you to predict future short term price movements from past data with more than 50% accuracy) then everyone would do it, and the profit would be eliminated, so it would no longer work. Any method of predicting future (short term) price movements cannot consistently work by this logic, without insider information.

Am I missing something?

Predicting the market is objectively impossible. TA is based around % chances of something happening. It's a bit like predicting the weather.

mcplums

full member

Activity: 146

Merit: 100

I havn't done any research on this subject, but it seems that it has to be?

If it did work (by work I mean, allow you to predict future short term price movements from past data with more than 50% accuracy) then everyone would do it, and the profit would be eliminated, so it would no longer work. Any method of predicting future (short term) price movements cannot consistently work by this logic, without insider information.

Am I missing something?

Topic: Is technical analysis bullshit? - page 4. (Read 4601 times)