Topic: Is the US default a reality? - page 3. (Read 568 times)

The economy of the United States is a highly developed country with a mixed economy. There will be no US default, they can adapt to any situation. The central role of the US dollar in the global economy despite the waning of US political and strategic control on the international stage, the dollar has once again asserted itself as a more durable currency than previously thought. The central bank has also taken supportive steps to maintain the dollar-based monetary system of the Federal Reserve, indicating a longer US controlled financial system.

Biden's recent interview was where he clearly says that he will not allow default to occur. But one bank has already gone down, how will the others behave, I eat more or less large ones. It will be difficult for them to borrow from each other in this vicious circle, except to borrow from ordinary people. Take their deposits temporarily.

If you mean the US default related to the debt ceiling crisis, I don't think there is any fear at the moment, they often save the situation at the last minute.

But in general, The collapse of the US economy means the collapse of the global economy as a whole because the global economy is linked to the US dollar, so the best solution in this case is to resort to saving gold or bitcoin.

I agree with you that the US will not default on its debt, and all this news is nothing but a joke by US politicians. But how can you bring in bitcoin, and just because they own 678,436 BTC, they won't default? The total capitalization of the entire crypto industry is just over 1 trillion dollars, and that number is even smaller than the total capitalization of their companies like Apple or Microsoft. That amount may be huge for 3rd world countries like El-Salvador, but it is nothing compared to the US economy. Even if they hold all 21 million bitcoins, it won't be able to save their economy if it collapses.

It's quite damaging that these debt ceiling negotiations keep coming up every few years because it seems that politics has been increasingly polarizing over the last decade. At some point the political parties will get so far apart and cause so much friction between themselves, that they will fail to negotiate on raising it. This would have massive repercussions to American power around the world if it ever did happen in the fullest sense. As huge amounts of American debt, which is considered one of the most reliable in the world, would suddenly become shaky and potentially cause massive ripples. There have been backup options discussed in the past but they are just sticking plastic measures, like the President issuing a 1 trillion dollar coin to the US treasury/

In my vision, these are all fuds, like, how can a country with the solid economy base on which many other country's economies are dependent? currently, they are facing with the banking crisis, debt ceiling, and many other economic situations but they have faced them in the past too and overcame these problems at that time. Then why now making so much noise out of it? As this is not something new that comes in front of them surprisingly, because it's the result of their actions that they have made and they knew about it, and must be prepared for it.

All I can say is not possible for the US to default as they have a strong economy even if we want to see in the context of acquiring BTC then they have more than 678,436 BTC which worth a lot, and how can a country which has not legalized BTC as legal tender as El-Salvador has done and El-Salvador is decreasing its inflation rate (source) while they have only 2381 BTC.

The point is, the USA has people behind it that can do anything to save their assets and they will come up with any policy to save it.

The US default not only affects many countries, and I would say it will affect the world, the risk of a global economic collapse is very likely. The United States is the country that controls, dominates, and has the greatest influence on the world economy. So once they fall, we will be hit hart.
But the possibility of them defaulting is really very difficult, I do not believe the information spread in the media because politics in the US is so messed up. News is unreliable because the media can be manipulated.

They are the country that holds the world's money printing machine and specializes in exporting inflation to allied nations and the world. How can they default? The drama they created has gone viral for decades rather than just the last few years, it's really nothing new for us to discuss or fear.

I am not a fan of American imperialism, but I also never believed they would default under any circumstances. They will remain the leading country in the world, and our world will still depend on the USD. But I hope that will change soon in the future and there will be another country to take their place.

Interesting calculation. He includes future obligations in social spending to arrive at this figure which seems reasonable as there has been zero indication the U.S. would ever cut back on social security, medicare/medicaid, etc. The problem with U.S. politicians is cuts to social welfare programs are only feasible during second terms of the Presidency. One cannot simply cut entitlement programs and expect to win reelection. The congress has little incentive as well, as each of those politicians are seeking their own reelection campaigns.


Right. My point is mainly that debt default exists only in theory, not practically, which is why I mention that much of this talk of a debt default is attention grabbing for its shock value but has no actual consequences. Raising the debt ceiling just means more borrowing now and in the future. If they elect to "default" by not raising the debt ceiling, nothing changes due to the fact USD is a currency that can be generated. No one actually loses money. They just lose purchasing power as a result of the inflation that results when the U.S. decides to generate more currency units. I suppose the result would be lost confidence in USD. Though for that to happen, one would have to entirely forget previous debt ceiling raises, or that the U.S. has debt to the tune of 30 trillion. It seems as if there is so little confidence in USD, that none more could possibly be lost. I'm amenable to being corrected in this regard, as the bar just gets lower and lower for fiats. Looks to me USD holders are just riding the wave until everyone agrees the gig is up.

The least likely option
Always, the envious of the United States consider only one side. In order not to break your fantasies
If you look at it from all angles, and not selectively, then the picture will be completely different. Yes, the United States has both high domestic and foreign debt. But there are always two sides to a coin... Have you ever considered how much other countries owe the United States? And try it. And you will understand that the US debt is "a couple of kopecks."
So if we talk about the possibility of a US default, we must talk about a global default, when all market participants will face the dilemma - total bankruptcy ... or ... total mutual cancellation of debts!

For a country like the United States to default is absolutely unrealistic. To continue fulfilling its financial obligations, the United States need only increase the amount of printing of its dollars. After all, their number does not depend either on the gold and foreign exchange reserves of this country, or on other similar factors. And I don’t see big problems with the US economy now. This problem is more contrived.
However, it never hurts to be safe. Therefore, it is better to keep part of your savings in bitcoin or other top coins.

If there is a default, it will affect many countries. News is written in advance, not knowing the subtleties. To say whether it is really impossible, there is very little information. Here they refer to the fact that a large bank has gone bankrupt and the rest may fall too.

Exceeding the debt ceiling is in itself a technical default, to call a spade a spade. It's just that the word is too scary and the US government prefers to call its actions after exceeding the debt ceiling extraordinary measures. The suspension of contributions to state pension funds looks like a default.

Every country is in economic turmoil, no one will go out of their way to save the US. The only savior will be who it is in debt to, the banking sector. Once the banking sector takes over the country, the country will become like a top-down managed business. Everything will be controlled, managed, tightened to be maximal efficiency for their interests, for production, for profit. The livestock (people) will serve no other purpose than to serve the interests of its new god-like leader.

This might sound ridiculous to some, however it is the message in all dystopian novels and films from decades ago til now. That's the fate of the US. How it will effect other countries is yet to be discovered.

This issue happens almost every year. There might be a government shutdown while they work to find a solution how to cut spending but they will raise the debt ceiling and won’t default. A default would create havoc and make things worse.

They already printed money like crazy so why stop now. The 1m yield for US bonds is very high. However it’s not out of the norm like with a 10-20% yield which would mean there is a huge possibility of a default. Hence why I don’t think there will be a default.

I think it's all a show for the gallery, like so many other times.


So in reality your buddy has been working in banking since Nixon's default in 1971 ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold. It is a default that does not want to be recognized as such, but it was, going from a system that was only partially based on faith to a fiat system, which is based entirely on faith.

Its bullshit but politics are very polarized in USA 🇺🇸 so the dems and the reps have the power to do it.

Frankly if they do it they should be tried for treason but that will never happened.

I have watched and lived US politics for 60 years. I remember the Cuba crisis in 61-62

and a ton of shit since then.  USA pollies are greedy motherfuckers. So I do not think they have the will to crash and burn 🔥 the system.

I have a buddy that has been in banking since 1970 he says a deal will be cut no later than Monday.

The probability of the US defaulting may not be high, but the risk is there. The commotion that is currently happening is an ordinary political problem because the house of representatives is held by Republicans while the government is Democrats, of course they don't want to submit to the government so easily, they will definitely fight to be able to fight against the Biden government, but of course this problem will not lead to default to the US, it is certain that the government and the opposition will find common ground regarding this issue. It is possible that the Biden government will cut their spending budget so as not to cross the debt ceiling or the house of representatives may agree to increase the debt ceiling, but that chance seems quite small.

I just wont to say The possibility of a US default is a matter of speculation and prediction but,  a US Default will have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. What I'm focus on here is the ability of the US government to work in maintaining the stability and credibility of its financial system.

I think it really depends on the trust and confidence of investors and international markets. If not, there will be doubts about the ability of the US government to manage its debt, it can cause loss of confidence, market volatility and trigger inflationary pressures and economic downturn.

While it's true that any country that prints its own currency can avoid default by printing more currency, the U.S. can still default on its debt by choosing (through inaction) not to avoid default.



In sounds like you are saying that the U.S. is in default because it has exceeded its debt limit. That is not true. The debt limit itself is not a condition of default. The reason it is a factor is that the U.S. spends more than it takes in, so it must go deeper into debt in order to pay its current debts, and it cannot because of the self-imposed debt limit.