Topic: Is there a pattern when there is a dump like this? - page 3. (Read 638 times)

I’ve been in crypto since 2014 and pretty much lived thru 2 bear markets and let me tell you how you can spot the bottom? The bottom will be when you least expect it.

Many expected the bottom in 2018 to be $6K and they were dead wrong. The bottom was $3K when people were calling for $1K Bitcoin.

In 2015 it was even worst because the market had almost no activity back then. Hardly moved. Then one day Bitfinex breaks the $200 support goes to like $175 and that’s when people throw in the towel and it’s the lowest price I’ve ever seen.

So the low will be when you least expect it . It won’t be $30K or even $20K. That would be too easy.

We can see patterns but doesnt mean that it would definitely be repeating on the exact day or exact time but at least we can presume out that it could possibly happen.

We cant really make out patterns and analysis for ourselves and this would vary on someone on how they would act out and make out decisions on a particular situation.

The truth is that seeing patterns isnt bad but not precisely 100% to be that reliable so always make out some plan B's.

This is what many people simply do not understand it is obvious there are patterns to the moves of most assets but it is not an exact science, the pattern can become shorter, longer, go higher or lower but the overall shape of the pattern will be similar.

However those differences are enough to make the strategy of those that are hoping for an exact repetition of the pattern to enter or exit the market at the wrong time and lose a lot of money because of it.

In my opinion also, you can't deduce clear patterns from here. So the question of the OP about knowing when the dump has stopped and it is already at the lowest and starts increasing again is a very subjective matter. One can only see the pattern once the time has passed. You can only predict what may happen but still the market is influenced by many factors. One can just be alert what's happening around him so you can act accordingly when the market starts to show a different trend.

The patterns are not clear because there are none. Those news are the only thing that moves bitcoin market forward, it could be higher or lower but they are the ones that does it. During the big bull run of this past year we had amazing news, from Elon Musk to paypal to Germany to many other things like big corporations going in, and after that when we went down from Elon Musk to Chinese ban to many other things that caused it to go down as well.

Long story short without those news there is no bitcoin movement, for a while there are no major news bad or good and the price got stuck, now you can check for patterns but only because there are no news, the moment we get a big news either good or bad that will decide on where the price will go. That is just how crypto works and as long as you get news and act accordingly you will make some profit.

The pattern will always be there, but we can miss something important that will guide us to determine where the price will move. The news will still be news. Sometimes it can impact the market but vice versa. We have to be observant analyzing the market because sometimes, the pattern will not show clearly to make us analyze deeper to find the next clue.

But to know if the next minute will be dump is not easy because the sign is tough to analyze and the volume can become bigger or lower in any second.

Don't believe the TA garbage that anyone is spewing here.

The fact of the matter is that there are no reliable long term trends that repeat over and over again. If it exists, people will exploit it. And as soon as some people catch on and start exploiting opportunities, it quickly disappears just as fast as it came in the first place.

Just ask yourself, if there were to be a predetermined trend to these things, why hasn't someone become a billionaire levering up to trade it yet?

Just be in the ride for the long run. Time in the market beats timing the market 100% of the time.

Even in the past when there were only stocks and shares, the most brilliant minds and mathematicians have already been making studies about the movement of the market, creating formulas after formulas but only achieved success some time in reducing the risks but not eliminating those risks. And when they finally did so, the formula used became a huge hit and was applied by many traders into their ways, and after a moment, the inventors actually tied it themselves creating their own company that aimed to take advantage into trading in a worldwide scale amassing huge investments from all over the world that was reached by the news of their achievements. The company became a huge success and took had billions of profits and gave a lot of ROIs to their investors. But too bad though, since nothing can really last forever, a time came when an economy crash happened which was really unexpected and was never included in their calculations that has then led to billions of losses.

Now, looking at this industry that we are currently in, I can say that it is still very very young and obviously conventional ways of analyzing the movement of any coin won't work like magic. If a market like the stock and shares proved to be so hard to predict fully, what more the crypto currency industry that is not only too young but also very volatile and easily manipulated with just a few tweets from a very influential person.

Don't get me wrong, I am not entirely cancelling out the possibility of being able to predict the market movement, its just that I do not think that anyone can do it in a hundred percent risk free way. Instead, the achievable feat would be to make logically supported guesses that gives better chance of beating the market compared to having no technical analysis at all.

So to put it easily, we are only guessing where the market is heading and the only difference between yours and mine is the extent of knowledge that each of us have about this industry, candles and the current events(the ones related to and can affect this industry).

-Hope this helps clear things out.

When you are already here on this market for a while or several years already and seen those banning and revoking such decision then you can really have that impression that it is a bit familiar or bit manipulative.
which i cant really blame out someone on having that kind of impression because it do really look that way but honestly we cant really tell about those situation, it might look the same or repeating on the same process
or events but cant really be proven out that it is really intentional.No one can really determine if those things actually happening or just based up on observation.Asking out if there are patter on dumps
then if this one is possible on the first place then this market wont be actually to be called a real one.

Traders will agree with me, patterns are always there if you looking at a chart but you need to know that they will not always work in your favor because other factors are at play, for example news, government legislation,  market manipulation and many others.

If it were super easy to read patterns, these markets would have collapsed by now, so a little bit of manipulation here and there makes them liquid.

I do not believe that, patterns are something you make on hindsight and not something you can predict for the future which means that they are not always true. People look back and find patterns in the price but then when they want to apply it to the future they end up failing to make the same thing.

It means that we are not going around in patterns, we just find some in the past and that's it. Considering bitcoin is something very new (compared to all other financial stuff that has been around for hundred years at least) that means that we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg. Think about what bitcoin could be in 100 years, when that period is reached you will see that it is always different, we are not going to have those 3-4 year cycles and ups and downs close to each other. Even this period was a different increase compared to previous ones and a different fall following that.

I am afraid that there no right indicator that can show us if the dump has stopped.
We can only predict when the price has reached the bottom, but we will not know if that bottom price is the real bottom price.
The price could be down for more so there is no way for us to know the truth, but we can only prepare.
You can buy bitcoin when the price is down but you can buy a small amount to test if the price really reaches the bottom price.

If you check the historical data of all previous halving markets there's always a pattern that replicates the same pattern because the halving market has always been like this but it not every trend or the momentum the market switch into that you'll see or find an indication for and in this kind of situation you just have to follow your instincts with the addition of possible news that will impact the market price.

I haven't realized any pattern about price movements so far. The market is just unpredictable. It is open for every kind of surprises every time. So, we should be aware of that when we are going to invest into some coins. Otherwise, there could be some consequences of it.

It is very unfortunate to get nothing, there is no such trading design otherwise, we, therefore, thinking that trading is a centralized platform. Its good thing that it was not but on the negative side, it gives losses to all trader and have no exemption even though you are expert or not.
I don't think if we could see a change in the future to just simply give a better future for all traders and even to encourage people to go trading. But for now, it is a need for us to accept how could it work and it is our choice to do so.

There is always patterns, there is just not absolute certainty on pattern playing out as expected.   I see trends and momentum on the graphs for BTC like train tracks but its just a set of junctions and direction remains unclear with multiple possibilities.  It does help to keep a map of all the directions even if a path is left unused this time; trends may last weeks or months and be very profitable to follow, usually patience is key and its best to doubt first then follow when the trend sticks.

I hope there is because we will provably became rich if we know some people who can read the pattern of bitcoin movement. But if you like to learn more things about trading better read trading books and grab for further informations about the possiblw scenarios what you can possibly face on real time trading.

You can try to look with technicals and you could really get some idea but those arent 100% accurate for it to happen considering that this market could easily fucked up technical analysis without any reason or something happened in the market exempting if there are sudden news or what.

Dont stress out yourself about patterns about possible bottoms or peak prices because it cant really be determined by any indicators that currently existing on the market.All would be remaining as speculations and presumptions and it isnt really bad to consider on making use of it so its a matter of risk when you do follow it or not.

Market is way too unpredictable and basing off with some observation and real experience then technicals doesnt actually work most of the time.You should bare that up in mind.

I don't think that there is a pattern about this dump. The market is just doing whatever it wants as long as there isn't any external factors. I've seen many analysis models so far. If you don't have luck also, there is no way that you are predicting it correctly. 

We as humans tend to look for patterns in everything. Its how our brains work, even when there isn't a pattern there, our brain will recognize certain events as a pattern no matter how loose it may be. I believe we do this for memory management, so we can recall it later, but I'd have to recheck the psychology behind it.

What I'm trying to say though, just because this might look like a pattern or something that has happened before, doesn't actually mean the same outcome will indeed happen again. The world is pretty random ish, and we as humans try to reduce that by identifying patterns. However, really the world is still pretty random.

Bitcoin is influenced by whats happening in the world, and how far we are along Bitcoin's lifespan. So, its impossible to have the exact same turn of events, and have the market react the exactly the same way. Its almost impossible to predict what tomorrow might bring too, we have indications, but there's too much stuff happening in the background that your simply not aware of to actually be able to predict things accurately.

Generally, the way Bitcoin is designed, and the idea of the evolution behind it. We should see it increase in price, however that's assuming that we haven't already hit our all time high. I don't believe we have, but many people would likely argue that we have. So, while Bitcoin by design should actually increase with time in terms of value, and adoption it's most certainty not guaranteed.