Is there a pattern when there is a dump like this? - page 4.

carlisle1

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Quote from: wxa7115 on July 01, 2021, 12:45:49 PM

Quote from: Dave1 on June 22, 2021, 11:04:26 PM

Hard to say, but based on what I have been observing since I joined the market, there is no pattern. But the market reacts to every news so that's the first thing that you can look at. But the first thing I do is check on crypto related websites and see if there is any that could have affected the market.

If none, then obviously, maybe speculators are cashing out and taking profits and then it will be followed by weak hands selling because they panic when seeing their portfolio going down.

This is what those that follow patterns do not seem to understand, no asset follows patterns perfectly, now if you take a look at the past some patterns may seem to emerge from time to time but this does not mean that the next time there is an important movement in the price we will follow those patterns.

This is why people lose money, they buy or sell thinking the price will go up or down at a particular time based on those patterns and bitcoin instead does nothing or even does the opposite, this means that even if the overall shape of the pattern did in fact appeared in the market it is not going to be the same and you will be unable to obtain profits by following those patters that you observed during the time you observed the market.

Patterns may help you to analyze and anticipate but like what you have said, there's no certainty that it will
happen again or it will follow the same directions, there are lots of investors who lose money following this analysis blindly,

you need to work it out and be willing to adjust, either you do have sets of back up plans if you failed with your first attempts
or you have system that you use monitoring all the potential next movements,

Very important to set your target and deal with good adjustments if in case things didn't materialize accordingly.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Dave1 on June 22, 2021, 11:04:26 PM

Hard to say, but based on what I have been observing since I joined the market, there is no pattern. But the market reacts to every news so that's the first thing that you can look at. But the first thing I do is check on crypto related websites and see if there is any that could have affected the market.

If none, then obviously, maybe speculators are cashing out and taking profits and then it will be followed by weak hands selling because they panic when seeing their portfolio going down.

This is what those that follow patterns do not seem to understand, no asset follows patterns perfectly, now if you take a look at the past some patterns may seem to emerge from time to time but this does not mean that the next time there is an important movement in the price we will follow those patterns.

This is why people lose money, they buy or sell thinking the price will go up or down at a particular time based on those patterns and bitcoin instead does nothing or even does the opposite, this means that even if the overall shape of the pattern did in fact appeared in the market it is not going to be the same and you will be unable to obtain profits by following those patters that you observed during the time you observed the market.

LUCKMCFLY

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I think that a pattern to follow at the moment is difficult to predict, however at the level of chartism certain things are likely to be repeated, but in a pandemic, in a world where the cure for covid -19 has not yet been achieved, the BTC is showing signs of imminent recovery, however some still have certain uncertainties in the market, these patterns have been repeated?

Quote

Nope, not close. Price action-wise, the situation remains the same. Bitcoin is still struggling to find consistent momentum upwards, something that is leading to outright panic amongst retail investors. The $40,000-market remains crucial for BTC, under which, the trend continues to remain uncertain.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/if-these-players-play-their-cards-right-bitcoin-may-re-establish-bullish-leg/

If I start from this fundamental principle, many figures that are achieved in the BTC may be known to many, but the fundamental analysis depends a lot on whether a pattern will repeat or not.

gabbie2010

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A market whether stock, crypto and forex do trend however there is no definite pattern of the price action that can signal the end of a trend ie dump or pump even the so-called indicators can only predict a likely overbought or oversold zones whereas the price might pause for a while however the price might continue to dump after a minor retracement, the best bet for a trader is to join the trend when the price is dumping for a short trade and long when the market is bullish or trending upward and take profit before the end of the trending market.

Karartma1

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There are no patterns but it looks me that the market's behaving like in the past cycles. China Fud's gonna end very soon now that the mining farms are being dismantled. What a crazy move by the Chinese government! Losing access on the most important asset of our lifetime.
They'll regret it so bad.

DU18

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I think dumps like this have destroyed the patterns and chart predictions in the market Grin

, the price decline that is happening now shows many factors that affect the price of bitcoin, not only in terms of supply and demand in the market but negative sentiment that continues to also trigger a decline the price of bitcoin is this bad and I think the recent actions of the chinese government are one of the causes that make the price of bitcoin continue to fall and that certainly makes a lot of whales panic so they sell their bitcoins and this further exacerbates the price of bitcoin.
Then is this the end of bitcoin?
I do not think so..!
Because on the one hand it is possible that the price of bitcoin will rise again due to considering bitcoin's strong and solid fundamentals and its limited number.

acener

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You could use the chart but it doesn't guarantee anything,
It is pure base speculation nothing more the price moves depending on the demands (Investor/People) and we couldn't know how would they react,
Sometimes a FUD could be the trigger of the dump but it is hard to know if it would really affect the price.

magneto

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Look, there is virtually no way of ascertaining when the bottom is.

People will try to claim that TA is the way to go, but from my 8 odd years in crypto, I have never seen a sustainable TA strategy. Even backtested strategies break down sooner or later, and if you risk too much at once you can get seriously burned.

We don't know where the bottom is, but what we do know that it is close and we're likely below the long term trendline. That should be enough knowledge to prompt you to start accumulating coins through dollar cost averaging and hold for the long run, as opposed to trying to time your buys perfectly.

pooya87

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In my experience I don't think it is possible to have any kind of pattern that we could use to predict when the dump is going to happen, when it will end and when it will reverse. For example take yesterday's surprising dump, it was unnatural and everywhere I looked it was filled with either FUD or people "predicting" $20k and lower! Meanwhile we only saw $29k for about an hour and today price is almost $35k which is $6k higher!

The only thing we can analyze is the aftermath, by looking at the huge level of FUD and dumping at the same time and the fact that $30k resistance actually held up pretty nicely we can say that it is officially a very strong bottom which is also explaining the rise we are seeing today as price bounces back up.

This also may have been the last arrow in whale accumulator's quiver to buy the cheapest bitcoin possible before price reaches $75k possibly in the next couple of weeks.

Obito

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on June 21, 2021, 09:40:14 AM

To be honest, it is difficult to identify when we will dump.
Some are basing on fundamental analysis like there is new negative news about Bitcoin or FUD, or some big personality having statements about Bitcoin.
And the huge possibility is the whales in the market, where they are capable to make the price of Bitcoin move in a huge percentage.
Another thing too is a technical analysis using different tools, like analyzing the volume, momentum indicator, open interests, etc.

Agree, despite all the patterns being presented by different people, we still don't have the definite answer for that because the market as it should be, unpredictable and difficult to manipulate.

justdimin

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Quote from: Dave1 on June 22, 2021, 11:04:26 PM

based on what I have been observing since I joined the market, there is no pattern. But the market reacts to every news so that's the first thing that you can look at. But the first thing I do is check on crypto related websites and see if there is any that could have affected the market.

There are patterns everywhere but you need to remember history to recognize it. When bitcoin into bullish, there were positive news on positive news and when bitcoin entered into bearish same happened even with negative news; I mean not just in price levels but on events and percentage of market movement and downfall, there will be always some patterns and this is why I still strongly believe that $100k before end of this year possible.

Quote from: Dave1 on June 22, 2021, 11:04:26 PM

maybe speculators are cashing out and taking profits and then it will be followed by weak hands selling because they panic when seeing their portfolio going down.

These are least important things as these are just part of every market hence we can simply ignore them. I am looking for just one positive trigger which will restore faith among investors; unfortunately El Salvador's adoption failed to do so but anything another one similar to that will do the magic for sure.

Dave1

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Hard to say, but based on what I have been observing since I joined the market, there is no pattern. But the market reacts to every news so that's the first thing that you can look at. But the first thing I do is check on crypto related websites and see if there is any that could have affected the market.

If none, then obviously, maybe speculators are cashing out and taking profits and then it will be followed by weak hands selling because they panic when seeing their portfolio going down.

Crypto Fireside

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I spoke to a very interesting DeFi dev as part of an interview article series I run on my blog Crypto Fireside that said she/he thought that there would be a 90% reduction in value this year or shortly after...who knows.

STT

legendary

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Heres a fairly clear pattern but its just trading below the 2 day average.

To a wider extent, this area is resistance just because the amount of prior action here previously. Its easy to draw a level across on this area, this is only 1hr bars so its really short term action but enough people got scared by the sell off to 29k that they remain sellers at 33k. The best perspective is gained by examining multiple charts across time frames larger then this, 4hr and daily is an ideal start to see better where we can move.

DarkIT

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Now the price had started to increase again.So hold till the price reach the old value.Then sell the bitcoin at good price.Don't blame the bitcoin by saying the dump.When the price pump at the good value.It's good enough to sell at good price.This dump also make many people rich.You should inverse at low to get profit.

Mahanton

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You can see some patterns but doesnt mean that those things that we had seen in the past would definitely happen up in the future and this is what makes the situation even more harder for us to make out predictions and the market had always been like this.There's no way that you can determine for possible dumps that might happen ahead because if theres someone who can able to secure himself before the dump then he's already rich but we know its an impossible stuff. We are all speculators on here so better to take some action before its too late.

el kaka22

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I understand that whenever a big dump happens people are very upset about what is going on but that doesn't mean that we should be focusing on just the drop and miss out on the future prospects. I like that people are smarter about crypto now, realize how to use stop loss, use their profits they made earlier with higher prices to endure this process and end up even buying at lower end, so "just wait, it will go up" is no longer a smart advice to many people because they all know that it will go up, they all know it is a great price to buy at here and even lower, they just want to get out higher and want to buy lower, which is understandable and if you used stop loss, it is easy too!

However to all the people who missed out on that, do not be worried because at the end of the day we are talking about something that is not unique, it always goes down and it always ends up breaking its own ATH eventually one day, it will do that again, waiting is not a bad option.

rhodelmabanal

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Quote from: 9thsky on June 21, 2021, 09:24:49 AM

Prices dive, it's a straight decline, and then the decline slows down, and then it hovers around where it stops declining, and then suddenly it shoots up but not quite to where it declined from but rather at about %50 of the way, and then it suddenly declines to where it'd stopped declining, and then it hovers around there (+/- %1-5)...rinse, repeat.

Would you say the above is the usual "pattern", how would you change it?

Question: What's a good indication that the dump has stopped and it's at its lowest before prices start increasing? Any pattern in this regard?

Last time there was a dump (when Elon announced that Tesla would no longer accept btc), the decline stopped for a while, at around 53k. But then, for no apparent reason, it dived again, drastically, where it has since remained (until recently with this China bank news).

So the question is, has this happened before...where the dump ceases, starts going up a little (so you think it's a good time to buy as you take that as an indication that the decline has stopped because prices are rising), but then it suddenly dumps again?
Or is the whole thing a complete crap shoot?

If you are looking for a sign on when the price will dump there is no clear sign about it. Everyone can only post thier speculation but it does not mean that the speculation will come true we are all free to predict on what we believe but still there is no assurance that it will come true, crypto is a very unpredictable even expert cannot predict on it so just decide by your self and just continue learning crypto for good.

wxa7115

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Quote from: 9thsky on June 21, 2021, 09:24:49 AM

Question: What's a good indication that the dump has stopped and it's at its lowest before prices start increasing? Any pattern in this regard?

Last time there was a dump (when Elon announced that Tesla would no longer accept btc), the decline stopped for a while, at around 53k. But then, for no apparent reason, it dived again, drastically, where it has since remained (until recently with this China bank news).

So the question is, has this happened before...where the dump ceases, starts going up a little (so you think it's a good time to buy as you take that as an indication that the decline has stopped because prices are rising), but then it suddenly dumps again?
Or is the whole thing a complete crap shoot?

You will have to use your best judgment, I know this does not seem to be the answer you are looking for but it is, because of this traders specialize themselves in just a few markets, trading every single market exactly the same could seem to make sense but markets present different characteristics depending on the underlying assets.

The volatility of bitcoin is huge compared to most markets which makes it even more difficult to predict what will happen next, however taking into account the price crashed more than 50% from the ATH then this is a decent spot to enter the market, as even if the market went down a little bit more I do not see it going down that much as it seems we have reached the limits of the downward movement.

STT

legendary

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Theres always buyers at various levels, the trick is to identify consensus in a certain level. Take the simplest idea which is a round number, all the zeros in the dollar price. Its easy to enter and many orders can exist at these levels however its mostly a short term phenomena but traders always want to register a gain both ways.
The other way to look at why does a price dive then move up is the short selling creates buying, quite ironic in that BTC sold which was borrowed must be bought back so it creates a natural buy at the bottom prices. Right now the price action has broken a range of prices held also in Jan however we meet the 50 week average which has some significance also, what I believe happens next is we must challenge and confirm the range break of so many weeks. That attempt to move upwards and challenge easily registers as positive action in the near term focus.

Prices never move in a straight line, we have many time frames operating back and forth none of which have absolute control.

Topic: Is there a pattern when there is a dump like this? - page 4. (Read 638 times)