Is there an influence of the Mt. Gox payout on the markets?

ensurance982

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Quote from: mrhelpful on April 27, 2015, 03:19:41 PM

Well regardless of this insight this is out of our control.

Just focus on whats in your control, and see what you can do for price spikes. Whales supressing price and all the rich stuff, cant do much about unless you are one of them and decide to say its morally wrong which I doubt most whales would say.

I agree that this is mostly out of our control, especially for people who aren't/weren't heavily invested in Gox. On the other hand, it could actually matter when filing your claims. I believe you can (at least) specify what your preferred method of receiving your claims is. In this case it can make quite a difference of how much you receive, especially concerning the way coins are being distributed.

mrhelpful

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Well regardless of this insight this is out of our control.

Just focus on whats in your control, and see what you can do for price spikes. Whales supressing price and all the rich stuff, cant do much about unless you are one of them and decide to say its morally wrong which I doubt most whales would say.

8up

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No. See OP.

This is why I am hoping for even lower prices.

SebastianJu

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Quote from: minerpumpkin on April 24, 2015, 12:26:40 PM

Quote from: SebastianJu on April 24, 2015, 07:00:54 AM

Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 03:00:04 PM

If I can get my bitcoin paid back at $483, then I will take the cash please!
Why would anyone want a $235 bitcoin refund when they can get $483 per bitcoin refund?

I'll take the cash and buy twice the amount of Bitcoin, that'll do me nicely!

Thats not how it works. I asked the same question and got this answer.

Quote from: Dargo on April 22, 2015, 04:36:48 PM

The chances to get something back are very good, provided that 1) you establish your claim and 2) your claim amount isn't really small (for claims below JPY1,000, the trustee has said that you will still get the payout, but you might have to come pick up your money - not practical for most people).

We don't know the percentage and it will depend on undetermined factors, such as how many people decide to make their claim. Some have speculated that it might be around 20% based on some public information, but it isn't certain.

All currencies including BTC will be considered in terms of their value in JPY when MtGox went bankrupt. These values will be used to determine your pro rata share of the total remaining assets. If you request a payout in BTC, the amount of BTC you receive would be your pro rata share of JPY converted to BTC at the current market rates.

I quoted all the answer since the other info is noteworthy too. But they all calculate in JPY, if you chose bitcoins then you will get the amount of bitcoins you could buy at the current market price for the amount of JPY.

So basically for people only having FIAT money in Gox, the best thing would be if they actually used today's BTC prices. That way the amount all the holders of BTC get gets smaller compared to the prices at Gox's downfall. But I do understand that the way they're doing it makes most sense and is the one complying with the regulations.

I understand it another way. All btc will be calculated to fiat for the price of bitcoin when mtgox went down. Then, if you want get btc out, your fiat will be paid out in btc for the price of btc at the time it gets paid out. So no losing, in fact winning in amount of btc when you have btc in it because the bitcoin price is lower now than when mtgox went down.

Am i wrong?

minerpumpkin

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Quote from: derpinheimer on April 24, 2015, 12:29:06 PM

Where is all the usd coming from that they intend to refund? Almost all assets are btc?

Well the assets themselves comprise all the assets gox still has (or had, at the time when the bankruptcy occurred). I also believe that most of those assets will be BTC that we're kept in some wallets gox's system forgot about. Good thing their system was working that bad so now we still have some assets to distribute Wink

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Quote from: derpinheimer on April 24, 2015, 12:29:06 PM

Where is all the usd coming from that they intend to refund? Almost all assets are btc?

Why would there be a preference for USD over BTC?

derpinheimer

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Where is all the usd coming from that they intend to refund? Almost all assets are btc?

minerpumpkin

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Quote from: SebastianJu on April 24, 2015, 07:00:54 AM

Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 03:00:04 PM

If I can get my bitcoin paid back at $483, then I will take the cash please!
Why would anyone want a $235 bitcoin refund when they can get $483 per bitcoin refund?

I'll take the cash and buy twice the amount of Bitcoin, that'll do me nicely!

Thats not how it works. I asked the same question and got this answer.

Quote from: Dargo on April 22, 2015, 04:36:48 PM

The chances to get something back are very good, provided that 1) you establish your claim and 2) your claim amount isn't really small (for claims below JPY1,000, the trustee has said that you will still get the payout, but you might have to come pick up your money - not practical for most people).

We don't know the percentage and it will depend on undetermined factors, such as how many people decide to make their claim. Some have speculated that it might be around 20% based on some public information, but it isn't certain.

All currencies including BTC will be considered in terms of their value in JPY when MtGox went bankrupt. These values will be used to determine your pro rata share of the total remaining assets. If you request a payout in BTC, the amount of BTC you receive would be your pro rata share of JPY converted to BTC at the current market rates.

I quoted all the answer since the other info is noteworthy too. But they all calculate in JPY, if you chose bitcoins then you will get the amount of bitcoins you could buy at the current market price for the amount of JPY.

So basically for people only having FIAT money in Gox, the best thing would be if they actually used today's BTC prices. That way the amount all the holders of BTC get gets smaller compared to the prices at Gox's downfall. But I do understand that the way they're doing it makes most sense and is the one complying with the regulations.

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 03:00:04 PM

If I can get my bitcoin paid back at $483, then I will take the cash please!
Why would anyone want a $235 bitcoin refund when they can get $483 per bitcoin refund?

I'll take the cash and buy twice the amount of Bitcoin, that'll do me nicely!

Thats not how it works. I asked the same question and got this answer.

Quote from: Dargo on April 22, 2015, 04:36:48 PM

The chances to get something back are very good, provided that 1) you establish your claim and 2) your claim amount isn't really small (for claims below JPY1,000, the trustee has said that you will still get the payout, but you might have to come pick up your money - not practical for most people).

We don't know the percentage and it will depend on undetermined factors, such as how many people decide to make their claim. Some have speculated that it might be around 20% based on some public information, but it isn't certain.

All currencies including BTC will be considered in terms of their value in JPY when MtGox went bankrupt. These values will be used to determine your pro rata share of the total remaining assets. If you request a payout in BTC, the amount of BTC you receive would be your pro rata share of JPY converted to BTC at the current market rates.

I quoted all the answer since the other info is noteworthy too. But they all calculate in JPY, if you chose bitcoins then you will get the amount of bitcoins you could buy at the current market price for the amount of JPY.

minerpumpkin

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Quote from: derpinheimer on April 23, 2015, 04:26:27 PM

I get the feeling a large percent of Gox's "800000" were made up (Willy) and/or idle (Early adopters who forgot about Bitcoin)

When you looked through the logs, there were idle accounts sitting on hundreds and thousands of coins.

So ignoring how much the legal costs are, I'd imagine the payout being up to 50%

It's a quiet safe bet to assume that those coins never existed. What makes it even more puzzling is the fact that if those coins didn't exist in the first place, the price should actually be a lot higher!

derpinheimer

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I get the feeling a large percent of Gox's "800000" were made up (Willy) and/or idle (Early adopters who forgot about Bitcoin)

When you looked through the logs, there were idle accounts sitting on hundreds and thousands of coins.

So ignoring how much the legal costs are, I'd imagine the payout being up to 50%

ensurance982

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Quote from: briguy37 on April 23, 2015, 03:57:37 PM

Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 03:00:04 PM

If I can get my bitcoin paid back at $483, then I will take the cash please!
Why would anyone want a $235 bitcoin refund when they can get $483 per bitcoin refund?

I'll take the cash and buy twice the amount of Bitcoin, that'll do me nicely!

I hope that's not what they meant! I took it to mean they would take the fiat value of your settlement, and then give you an equivalent amount of BTC based on the current market value at the time of distribution.

I believe that is the relative worth of the coins, it is very unlikely that they have enough money to pay out such some to their creditors. You have to keep in mind that the total sum of money they can distribute is very limited people can't be happy if they get a fourth of what they invested back.

briguy37

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 03:00:04 PM

If I can get my bitcoin paid back at $483, then I will take the cash please!
Why would anyone want a $235 bitcoin refund when they can get $483 per bitcoin refund?

I'll take the cash and buy twice the amount of Bitcoin, that'll do me nicely!

I hope that's not what they meant! I took it to mean they would take the fiat value of your settlement, and then give you an equivalent amount of BTC based on the current market value at the time of distribution.

ensurance982

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 08:34:20 AM

It depends completely on how they go about the refund.
If they have 200k bitcoins and decide to only offer cash refunds, then they have to sell 200k bitcoins, which will crash the market.

If they already have the cash and decide to refund in cash, then you have lots of crypto fans with a bit of extra cash in their pockets. That must result in extra buying, which would be good for the price.

I know that if I get cash, I'll probably put it back into bitcoin, if I get bitcoin, it will stay in bitcoin. The first is better for the price.

They are not dumb. They know perfectly well that's selling all the coins is going to crash the market. I am sure that they will try to return the callings as they are and if this is legally possible in Japan.

NUFCrichard

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Quote from: briguy37 on April 23, 2015, 09:51:29 AM

Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 08:34:20 AM

It depends completely on how they go about the refund.
If they have 200k bitcoins and decide to only offer cash refunds, then they have to sell 200k bitcoins, which will crash the market.

If they already have the cash and decide to refund in cash, then you have lots of crypto fans with a bit of extra cash in their pockets. That must result in extra buying, which would be good for the price.

I know that if I get cash, I'll probably put it back into bitcoin, if I get bitcoin, it will stay in bitcoin. The first is better for the price.

I'm guessing a good portion will want their settlement in Bitcoin (that's what I went for at least), but they are very careful to avoid any guarantees so far that this will even be possible:

Quote from: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_faq_en.pdf

it may be possible for Users to enjoy certain benefits such as the ability to receive bankruptcy distribution in Bitcoin (this matter has not yet been determined whether
distributions in Bitcoin will be possible, as the bankruptcy trustee is still investigating the matter).

So the extreme cases are:
1) Everybody goes for refunds in bitcoin, in which case $13 million USD pushes the price up.
2) Bitcoin refunds are not possible (which is more-likely because one stupid law is all that would take), in which case 200,000 BTC pushes the price down with a rebound when users buy back in with the refund cash.

I'm guessing in case 2 that they would try find a way to prevent a dip in the market like that (private auction instead of just selling at market value on exchanges).

If I can get my bitcoin paid back at $483, then I will take the cash please!
Why would anyone want a $235 bitcoin refund when they can get $483 per bitcoin refund?

I'll take the cash and buy twice the amount of Bitcoin, that'll do me nicely!

briguy37

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 08:34:20 AM

It depends completely on how they go about the refund.
If they have 200k bitcoins and decide to only offer cash refunds, then they have to sell 200k bitcoins, which will crash the market.

If they already have the cash and decide to refund in cash, then you have lots of crypto fans with a bit of extra cash in their pockets. That must result in extra buying, which would be good for the price.

I know that if I get cash, I'll probably put it back into bitcoin, if I get bitcoin, it will stay in bitcoin. The first is better for the price.

I'm guessing a good portion will want their settlement in Bitcoin (that's what I went for at least), but they are very careful to avoid any guarantees so far that this will even be possible:

Quote from: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_faq_en.pdf

it may be possible for Users to enjoy certain benefits such as the ability to receive bankruptcy distribution in Bitcoin (this matter has not yet been determined whether
distributions in Bitcoin will be possible, as the bankruptcy trustee is still investigating the matter).

So the extreme cases are:
1) Everybody goes for refunds in bitcoin, in which case $13 million USD pushes the price up.
2) Bitcoin refunds are not possible (which is more-likely because one stupid law is all that would take), in which case 200,000 BTC pushes the price down with a rebound when users buy back in with the refund cash.

I'm guessing in case 2 that they would try find a way to prevent a dip in the market like that (private auction instead of just selling at market value on exchanges).

Amph

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 23, 2015, 08:34:20 AM

It depends completely on how they go about the refund.
If they have 200k bitcoins and decide to only offer cash refunds, then they have to sell 200k bitcoins, which will crash the market.

If they already have the cash and decide to refund in cash, then you have lots of crypto fans with a bit of extra cash in their pockets. That must result in extra buying, which would be good for the price.

I know that if I get cash, I'll probably put it back into bitcoin, if I get bitcoin, it will stay in bitcoin. The first is better for the price.

they said clearly that you can choose between cash and bitcoin, i doubt everyone will chose cash, many will choose bitcoin for sure

rememberme

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You say the first is the best as in they refund in cash? = crash?

NUFCrichard

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It depends completely on how they go about the refund.
If they have 200k bitcoins and decide to only offer cash refunds, then they have to sell 200k bitcoins, which will crash the market.

If they already have the cash and decide to refund in cash, then you have lots of crypto fans with a bit of extra cash in their pockets. That must result in extra buying, which would be good for the price.

I know that if I get cash, I'll probably put it back into bitcoin, if I get bitcoin, it will stay in bitcoin. The first is better for the price.

rememberme

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dump/pump? whats the date?

Topic: Is there an influence of the Mt. Gox payout on the markets? (Read 1989 times)