Topic: Is there an influence of the Mt. Gox payout on the markets? - page 2. (Read 1984 times)

Payouts from gox are bullish even though it seems like it should be bearish due to more coins on the market.  Check the price history vs news when gox were looking fine vs suspect, each time gox were looking ready to reopen the price went up on all exchanges - this was before gox price was under FMV also.

Unless Kobayashi wants to pay from his own pocket there will not be enough money to pay everyone. So I guess the effect of the Gox repay won't be as big as one might think at first

There is a big psychological game here. Yes, a lot of people will be happy to be able to take control of their Bitcoin again, but some may be very pissed off after this and mindlessly sell and forget about BTC (only to find out they could have retired if they held for a couple more years).

Is there a source for this info? I'm not up to date on the latest news from Japan.

EDIT: Here is one source:
MtGox creditors can finally file claims for lost bitcoins
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2913212/mtgox-creditors-can-finally-file-claims-for-lost-bitcoins.html

It's about time! When does Mark finally go to jail for a long time?
Glad to see the bankruptcy is making progress.

I think they wont pay out the bitcoins you have at gox directly. It would be stupid too because users would get less at the price of $483. All Numbers are calculated to YPN, including the Bitcoins at $483. And thats, most probably the amount the bitcoins could, if that option will be available then, paid out.

So dropping the bitcoin price wont bring much most probably.

And if someone would want to hedge against the price then there are way than enough exchangs with leverage trading.

The full balance data isn't given on the latest balance sheet:


However, we can still look at the best info we have and make some guesses:

For the the cash side from their document, they have $13,492,903 (1,615,957,277 JPY) but have expected debts of $72,911,955 (8,732,190,301 JPY), so we would only get about a fifth back if it were that alone.

However, we also have the bitcoin side.  They said they have about 202,159.34061488 BTC, and with a little digging they have approximately 750,000 BTC from traders.  So if they distribute funds out after two years, the BTC debt values would be measured at $542.70/BTC which puts the additional debt cash value at $407,000,000.  

Thus, it looks like the total debts to be distributed will be around $480 million if everybody files, and they have about $13.5 million plus about 200,000 BTC to pay for it.


Assuming the above, here's how it would play out if they kept the BTC as BTC, nothing more was retrieved or spent, and they cashed out the BTC to pay the debts at different closing prices:

$100/BTC  --> $43.5 million payout   |   11% cash back    |   435,000 BTC payout   |  49.1% BTC back
$250/BTC  --> $63.5 million payout   |   13% cash back    |   254,000 BTC payout   |  28.7% BTC back
$500/BTC  --> $113.5 million payout |    23.6% cash back |   227,000 BTC payout   |  25.6% BTC back
$1000/BTC --> $213.5 million payout |   44.5% cash back |   213,500 BTC payout   |  24.1% BTC back
$2000/BTC --> $413.5 million payout |   86.1% back        |   207,000 BTC payout   |  23.4% BTC back
$2500/BTC --> $513.5 million payout |   107.0% back       |   205,000 BTC payout   |  23.2% BTC back


Note:  I'm not sure if they'd payout cash percentages over 100%

going with logic, it should be based on the conversion of the value of bitcoin in jpy at that time, when  gox collapsed, there is no other reason

Not an expert... I'm trying to understand this better. So why did they fix the price at $483/bitcoin!? Who decided which price to pick and what is the basis for doing that? I'm still trying to understand the whole process better.

The payout of creditors is fixed at $483/bitcoin +6% p.a.

If one wants to hold bitcoin after the payout (I assume most of the creditors are not going to liquidate their bitcoin holdings). Lower bitcoin prices are in ones favor, as the total claims will be calculated in $. Read: If the bitcoin price crashes even further this is good for Mt. Gox creditors, who want to be refunded in bitcoin (firm believers).

If (instead) one is afraid of higher prices (fewer bitcoin refunds), there are basically to options one can take part in now:

a) suppress prices (this is more a whale thingy)
b) hedge against higher prices (basically buy the expected refund now).

As prices are calculated in $ there seems to be no incentive for people with fiat in gox to play the market atm.


Might this be the reason, we are not seeing any significant price action for quite a time.

Personally, I'd like to see lower prices at around the payout. I am afraid whales are not strong enough to hold the price down till the payout. And if they fail, it easily could lead to a front-runner effect. The first, who hedges against higher prices hedges the best.



Could you please check, if there is a fallacy in my thinking?