Analogy should be to the Moore's law, not to price variations.
Are the cpu speeds that we enjoy today a bubble? Shall we go back to using 80386's?
If you're saying the current bitcoin price is a bubble. That may very well be. But don't mix the two issues.
Of course if the bitcoin price is a bubble, and if it crashes, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS, the miners may turn off their mining equipment. But that doesn't mean the bitcoin network hashing power is a bubble.
Topic: Is this a bubble? - page 2. (Read 3172 times)
OK.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=moore%27s+law
If the price goes to $1 I will be switching off my miners for sure.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
Buying coins has nothing to do with it (btw, you would buy them at todays price, but not at $1? I sure as hell would).
And you may shut down your inefficient miners, but even at $1/BTC today those 28nm asics would still earn more than they cost in electricity.
Now $1 is pretty extreme, but you get my point.
A few years ago, we have seen far steeper increases in difficulty than what we see now. You cant spot that in the current curve anymore as it has become noise, but here is a good chart for you:
You can still easily spot that early rise in the difficulty curve if you use a logarithmic scale:
If the price goes to $1 I will be switching off my miners for sure.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
(assuming constant btc price)
That was my thought to.But you can't assume that.
Nor can you predict it. Whats going on now has nothing to do with BTC price and BTC price will have next to no influence on network hashrate over the next months either; even if it goes to $1 or $10000, those asics will be deployed and cant be deployed faster than they are anyway. BTC price will only determine at what level the growth will taper off.
(assuming constant btc price)
That was my thought too reading your analysis.But you can't assume that.
I think we have a very wild ride in front of us.
A few years ago, we have seen far steeper increases in difficulty than what we see now. You cant spot that in the current curve anymore as it has become noise, but here is a good chart for you:
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-reaches-1-petahash-per-second/
These werent "bubbles" and nor is the current rise, its the network adjusting to new technological realities. This apparent exponential growth wont last, just like the previous ones didnt last, but that doesnt mean it will implode, just that it will taper off once the transition is complete. FWIW, whats happening now has been predicted many years ago, it was inevitable we would move to asic's at some point given they are inherently vastly superior in GH/$ and GH/W than FPGA, GPU's and CPU's. If anything this transition is happening much slower than I would have predicted.
But we are now in the last phase. After asics (and particularly 28nm asics) there is nothing else to create this kind of network growth. Or if there is, its yet to be invented. The network will continue to grow to 10+ PH without slowing down, probably even accelerate further in the coming months. Then it will begin to slow, but it wont stabilize before we reach somewhere between 50 and 500PH (assuming constant btc price).
Economics dictate that.
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-reaches-1-petahash-per-second/
These werent "bubbles" and nor is the current rise, its the network adjusting to new technological realities. This apparent exponential growth wont last, just like the previous ones didnt last, but that doesnt mean it will implode, just that it will taper off once the transition is complete. FWIW, whats happening now has been predicted many years ago, it was inevitable we would move to asic's at some point given they are inherently vastly superior in GH/$ and GH/W than FPGA, GPU's and CPU's. If anything this transition is happening much slower than I would have predicted.
But we are now in the last phase. After asics (and particularly 28nm asics) there is nothing else to create this kind of network growth. Or if there is, its yet to be invented. The network will continue to grow to 10+ PH without slowing down, probably even accelerate further in the coming months. Then it will begin to slow, but it wont stabilize before we reach somewhere between 50 and 500PH (assuming constant btc price).
Economics dictate that.
So. Now similar graphs then. This is a first.
Lets see how and when it pops.
EDIT
Similar threat wrong subforum
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-if-mining-suddenly-becomes-unprofitable-for-most-miners-300642
Lets see how and when it pops.
EDIT
Similar threat wrong subforum
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-if-mining-suddenly-becomes-unprofitable-for-most-miners-300642
this is called paradigm shift - conditions have severely changed
this is not a bubble. the hardware to mine this hard, is out there, and it will stay out there until when upgrades come, and the hardware will be obsolete.
How about if bitcoind is modified to take out the ASICs.
then me and 98% of the network will still use the good and old bitcoind, and fork the source. 
It won't.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
So this time it will be different?
How about if bitcoind is modified to take out the ASICs.
OK.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
It won't.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
The question is where it will pop?
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