There is a power within compounding and exponentials... so if the BTC price is going up through the years, and maybe not very clearly over a few years, but over a cycle or two, you are able to see a kind of stablizing and building upon itself in such a way that after a certain passage of time, it becomes quite difficult to push the BTC price below certain price points.
With all the experiences you have shared, of course it is in accordance with what I said before, where
holding BTC for a long period of time promises greater profits. Because it is based on several interesting things regarding the future development of Bitcoin, be it mass adoption or lots of positive news that can make Bitcoin prices rise significantly.
Easier said than done. Unless you have a lot of confidence in your various other investments (so I guess I am speaking towards diversification.. but not into shitcoins), it can be quite difficult to see your investment go up 50x or more, and sure I am not even claiming my own to currently be up more than 27x, since I like to use $1k as my average cost per BTC... .. and so you can imagine that at some point there's gotta be some shaving off, and figuring out how to deal with the volatility without screwing things up.. ....
So let's say for example, in 2003-2013, you had an annual income of that increased from $10k per year and by 2013, it had gotten to $30k per year, and so through those years you had been investing around 10% of your income into various kinds of investments, and so by the time 10 years passed, your investment portfolio had gotten to about $40k.. which would be around $20k invested and the other $20k came from price appreciating, so you got around a doubling of the amount that you put into it over those 10 years.
Let's say around 2013, you decided to invest into bitcoin, and since you had already built a decent traditional investment portfolio that was 130% your annual income, you thought that you were in a position to be more aggressive to build up your BTC portfolio, so you spent around 3-4 years building up your BTC portfolio, and so maybe by the end of 2016, you made several mistakes yet you still had been able to accumulate 20 BTC for around $10k, so that would be $500 each, and also maybe it would have been around 20% of your total investment portfolio, with the assumption that maybe your investment portfolio might have still grown from $40k to $50k..
So maybe at that point you start to believe that you had been sufficiently aggressive to accumulate some BTC in light of your overall situation.. so at that point, you start to moderate your BTC investment, so that you are equally distributing your value between your traditional investment portfolio and BTC.. so out of your 10% investment allowance you are further dividing that into various categories so that you have traditional investments and BTC in an attempt to maintain something like a 10%-20% allocation to bitcoin and 80% to 90% goes to your other traditional investment assets.
At that point in late 2016, we should be able to appreciate what ended up happening with bitcoin.. Bitcoin had already been starting to go up quite a bit between early 2016 to late 2016 from $300-ish to $800-ish, but if we are presuming that you made some mistakes with your BTC, so your average cost of BTC is still $500 per BTC, but by the time 2017 plays out, you still were seeing around 40x price appreciation on your bitcoin and even with the correction back down to $3k in 2018, you were still up 6-8x at the lowest points of the BTC price, but there still could have been times that you could have been scared out of your continuing to hold BTC.. and maybe even questioning if you should buy more or not or even questioning if you should sell some.. but still right now with our current $27k-ish prices, you would be around 54x in profits.
I am not even saying that any of it is easy because even if we assume that your regular investment portfolio had doubled again from $50k to $100k, your BTC allocation still would end up taking up a disproportionate amount of your total investment.. which would be around $540k or more if you had maybe continued to accumulate BTC, but if you had not chosen to accumulate more BTC you still would have had ended up flippening your other investments with bitcoin going from being around 1/5 the size of your overall portfolio, and then it becomes around 5x of your total holdings.. depending upon how you had chosen to manage all lf that..and surely if your regular job ends sup still being around $30k or maybe even $40k per year, you might start to consider that you are starting to get quite close to fuck you status, and maybe even you might have been tempted into selling some of your BTC when they were higher value because you had though that for sure at some point you had gotten passed entry level fuck you status, which really should be considered to be around 20x to 30x of your annual income (needs) so if you had been living on $40k, then $800k to $1.2 million would be getting you into entry-level fuck you status.. which largely just means that you should be able to quit your job and live off of the proceeds (or the passive income of your investment portfolio).
There are a lot of ways to screw up however, you are balancing the situation and also how you are valuing the various assets that you hold. and part of the reason that I prefer to value my BTC holdings based on bottom values (such as the 200-week moving average) rather than top values has to do with some of the concerns about either cashing out too early and not knowing where to put your value so it holds value or just not being able to account for the volatility of BTC going from $69k down to $15,479 and then coming back up to our current price of $27k-ish.
Even the history of previous years is always the center of our attention so that we don't repeat the same mistake of selling BTC and lamenting regrets when BTC touched $69k. In the coming years, we don't know how developments will occur, but historically we are in an era of quite good development and this will continue from year to year.
Yes.. and of course, our previous ATH is likely in a pass through range rather than any kind of an end-goal.. .. and even if you might have some end goal in mind of $100k or $200k or $500k or some other number, you still have to figure out how are you going to manage your BTC holdings in such a way that you are NOT losing too many BTC by trying to get out and then back in and then maybe even ending up not playing those kinds of strategies very well.