Topic: It looks like the Bitcoin's value is about to see a major retrace - page 2. (Read 10056 times)
June 10, 2011, 01:55:30 PM
June 10, 2011, 01:54:49 PM
The real question is, can one survive solely on BTC. There needs to be a big market for BTC otherwise the price will fall to worthless.
June 10, 2011, 01:51:10 PM
I think the speculators that came in w/out doing any mining at all (aka, no steady income of production btc) stand to lose (well someone will win, but others will become very unhappy)
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50. I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50. I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day
So you are effectively limited to dealing with bought coins on exchanges because other avenues are now closed and you didn't save anything.
Well that's the risk I'll take
I'm not going to sell everything. Just a few here and there to keep things volatile, and to show for it 
June 10, 2011, 01:48:16 PM
I think the speculators that came in w/out doing any mining at all (aka, no steady income of production btc) stand to lose (well someone will win, but others will become very unhappy)
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50. I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50. I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day
Not really the smartest move economically for a small miner.
After 3-4 months difficulty will be at a level where you can make maybe 0.02 bitcoins per day, but the value will have increased in an exponential scale.
As difficulty goes up after that, your earnings will become near to zero.
You will have sold BTC at $20 per piece, but in the new market you have no means of producing BTC nor do you have BTC because you sold them off.
So you are effectively limited to dealing with bought coins on exchanges because other avenues are now closed and you didn't save anything.
June 10, 2011, 01:37:16 PM
I think the speculators that came in w/out doing any mining at all (aka, no steady income of production btc) stand to lose (well someone will win, but others will become very unhappy)
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50. I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50. I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day
June 10, 2011, 01:31:28 PM
My theory:
Bitcoins will drop to 10-15. The price will stabilize there. The stability will encourage many more people to trade more in Bitcoins, like actually using them for goods, rather than just the crazy speculation currently going on, and economic activity will increase a lot. After enough stability the value of Bitcoins will shoot up again, when there is enough real economic activity to support it.
Bitcoins will drop to 10-15. The price will stabilize there. The stability will encourage many more people to trade more in Bitcoins, like actually using them for goods, rather than just the crazy speculation currently going on, and economic activity will increase a lot. After enough stability the value of Bitcoins will shoot up again, when there is enough real economic activity to support it.
June 10, 2011, 01:04:57 PM
Price has dropped ~$5 since I posted this 9 hours ago. It held pretty well at the $25 mark, but just fell through to $24 and I say it will fall all the way to $20 at least, in the next few hours.
June 10, 2011, 10:54:22 AM
A large number of people talk about when they will sell their bitcoins, implying a lot of people are speculators on the bit coin market, hoarding bitcoins. My best guess, once again, is that it is highly likely the price is being driven high through speculation and people's blind bullish outlook is keeping the price high.
For how long?
For how long?
June 10, 2011, 10:40:56 AM
I know I'm not selling my coins until it hits $30 USD. It reached that point and then backed down. No one in the right mind is going to sell right now when it's $25 USD.
June 10, 2011, 10:38:55 AM
Looking at the market depth charts, I think we can expect a small temporary rally at 25 $/btc and then if it drops again, a much larger Rally into a bull market at 22 $/BTC
June 10, 2011, 10:13:40 AM
* it's the weekend. *
it's a fairly typical trading pattern. it's just magnified because the exchange rate has gotten so yummy.
it's a fairly typical trading pattern. it's just magnified because the exchange rate has gotten so yummy.
June 10, 2011, 10:08:00 AM
Quote
and the risk of someone so easily dumping all their coins.
AFAIK someone can only dump as much bitcoins on the market as there are people willing to buy them. add to that id bet the people with the most coin paid the least and therefore have the least 'tied up' and are more OG, willing to just hold them longer just coz they can.
June 10, 2011, 10:05:29 AM
Rereading, that seemed a bit bleak. I don't mean to infer that the sky is falling and the value is going to drop to nothing, simply that a pretty significant retracement in value is about to occur.
Good. It'll wash the people that are in for quick bubble money, and hopefully stabilize the price, which will allow the bitcoin economy to developp. 
June 10, 2011, 08:26:52 AM
I agree there will be a correction in the price. I think there are many more new coins coming into the market then speculators or people who need the currency will buy. When the price stagnates for a few days people will try and take some profits.
For the people who own thousands of these coins, they were crazy if they did not sell some of their bitcoins when the price was over $30.
I think the bitcoin has potential, but the prices are just far too high with so many coins out there, and the risk of someone so easily dumping all their coins.
For the people who own thousands of these coins, they were crazy if they did not sell some of their bitcoins when the price was over $30.
I think the bitcoin has potential, but the prices are just far too high with so many coins out there, and the risk of someone so easily dumping all their coins.
June 10, 2011, 08:23:47 AM
In regards to MTgox, a lot of people are having issues getting money into and out of the exchange due to the Dwolla issues they are having. These issues are also causing many people to halt trading until the issues are resolved. This is at least one reason for the decreased volume.
June 10, 2011, 07:36:17 AM
not sure in other countries but in the US it takes a full week to get money into mtgox right now. This coupled with their issues the past few days with Dwolla probably means there are funds in limbo waiting to be credited to accounts. There may be a solid push once this is resolved but it might not happen til the weekend is over.
June 10, 2011, 07:29:40 AM
a major retrace is just another buying opportunity. I wanted to buy significantly more, but got priced out of the market. When/if the price drops, I'll buy more.
I admit I don't understand chartist tea-leaf readers. If the fundamentals are good, the market will eventually catch up.
Is there another technology that fills the market niche of bitcoin? no.
Is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency useful? yes.
Is there another implementation of the same technology besides Bitcoin? no. Even if their was, it's all open source, which means we could just use their code in our project which has a two year head start.
The claim that all markets, including the market for bitcoin, are irrational in predictable ways may have merit, but technical analysis clouds the objectivity of a fundamental analysis and vise versa.
I admit I don't understand chartist tea-leaf readers. If the fundamentals are good, the market will eventually catch up.
Is there another technology that fills the market niche of bitcoin? no.
Is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency useful? yes.
Is there another implementation of the same technology besides Bitcoin? no. Even if their was, it's all open source, which means we could just use their code in our project which has a two year head start.
The claim that all markets, including the market for bitcoin, are irrational in predictable ways may have merit, but technical analysis clouds the objectivity of a fundamental analysis and vise versa.
June 10, 2011, 07:15:11 AM
I personally believe that the price is a bit high and like you said all the speculators are already in with their money. We need to get more drug users to come and use bitcoin.
Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.
I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.
Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.
I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.
Not so sure. This can change quick with a couple of articles in one or more countries.
June 10, 2011, 06:34:35 AM
I personally believe that the price is a bit high and like you said all the speculators are already in with their money. We need to get more drug users to come and use bitcoin.
Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.
I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.
Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.
I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.
I certainly hope not.
June 10, 2011, 06:19:56 AM
I personally believe that the price is a bit high and like you said all the speculators are already in with their money. We need to get more drug users to come and use bitcoin.
Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.
I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.
Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.
I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.
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