Topic: It looks like the Bitcoin's value is about to see a major retrace - page 3. (Read 10056 times)
June 10, 2011, 06:05:42 AM
If you watch the trades on MtGox you can watch a couple of bots consistently play, there is a measurable level of influence they provided as people bought into the market.
June 10, 2011, 05:41:20 AM
It wont. Compared to the current difficulty level the relative demand is too high for such a low price.
$24-$27 for 567,000 difficulty ($30 is overvalue atm), $30-$35+ stable at next diff. level.
Difficulty has little to do with the price people willing to pay, it has only to do with the price miners are willing to sell their new printed money, and well if the price doesnt appreciate to satisfy miners we'll just have a period of less miners, less money, higher upward potential before things return to "normal".
With that being said i think there's a different reason to claim "it wont", over 50% of mtgox total volume (in currency) came only last couple of days, in other words the BIG holders now seem to have a average intro price of at least 20$, i doubt they'd just lose 50%, especially when it seems these purchases are done by only a few individuals, they likely would buy it all the way down.
The price could go as low as $12-$13 without losing it's mid-term bullish trend. This is a 3 month chart:
It wont. Compared to the current difficulty level the relative demand is too high for such a low price.
$24-$27 for 567,000 difficulty ($30 is overvalue atm), $30-$35+ stable at next diff. level.
The price could go as low as $12-$13 without losing it's mid-term bullish trend. This is a 3 month chart:
I hope you are right and bitcoins goes down in price.
Yes I think your right, retrace to $22-25. The volume of new bitcoin articles has dropped on google news. Even though there will be a delay of some buyers getting money across, less news = less demand = price correction.
There is a great chance, and perhaps even need for a little correction. The cycle will eventually repeat only question is if 30 really is such a good entry or a better shortterm exit point.
Right, speculators are either going to buy (or hold on to their) coins if the price breaks through and holds above 30 because that means price is going to use the old point of resistance ($30) as a point of support and climb to the next level of resistance, which will presumably be $35 or $40. Then that cycle repeats until the price bounces off a point of resistance and retraces in a downward direction.
Why would the buyers want to wait before the price goes OVER 30 USD? Is it because they want to see a positive trend before they act?
Rereading, that seemed a bit bleak. I don't mean to infer that the sky is falling and the value is going to drop to nothing, simply that a pretty significant retracement in value is about to occur.
Looking at Mt. Gox's megachart just now, I saw that price is currently stagnant at just below the thirty dollar mark. Price slows down, it happens all the time, right? Well, the more important factor is the volume of trades occurring. If you look at trade volume on the chart you'll notice it's very low, which means the buyers stopped buying until the price moves over 30 dollars (round numbers tend to cause this type of resistance). The problem is with nobody buying, the value won't go over 30 since the rise in value was caused by speculators buying into the currency. Also, if the price sits too long right below a point of resistance, those speculators will take it as a signal to sell, effectively pulling the value down. If you were waiting to sell enough bitcoins to recoup your startup costs for gear, now would be the time to do it.
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