Topic: It makes no sense, but I'm holding. - page 2. (Read 3699 times)

+1

This is something we should be focusing on. There needs to be more incentives for people to try out Bitcoin.

Well, this is the speculation forum. I can speculate however I wish. To me a price below $6.50 is very low and price below $5 is so low that I can't see how anyone in their right mind would sell at that point.

There are some reasons why I think this way, first of all that kind of price point will be negative return for most miners and I think a majority of them still have faith that the price will be at least higher, if not much higher, at some point. Then there is simply the realities of Bitcoin itself which is still just starting and still just as potential and just as working as ever, nothing has changed for the worse.

Also it does matter how low the price feels compared to the prices we've had in the recent months. $5 is low, very low. That means a good buying opportunity and a bad selling point for everyone else but panic sellers. Or people who have lost their faith completely, which I call doomsday-bears. Some of those people might just be manipulating the public opinion to buy lower, however.

And the fact that price has fallen 80% from the top is irrelevant. I could also say that it has risen by a significant factor from 6 months back. The long-term price is still doing okay, one of those indicators, an important one, is at around $6.3 right now. This is one of the reasons I don't believe in a stable price much lower than that, a lower price than that would require a fundamental problem with Bitcoin itself which doesn't exist.

I strongly believe that most of this crash and the downward trend that's going on currently is simple mass psychology. More pessimism and more reports of downward trends, well, what do you expect to get from that. It also has other effects such as people not focusing on what's important such as building the services and infra that Bitcoin needs, they worry too much about the stability of the price which is not very relevant.

There's a fine line between education and spruiking.  The few people who know about bitcoins have heard you make money by running your computer (sounds like a complete scam) or that drug users love it (Silk Road).  Preaching about freedom from fiat currencies isn't going to catch on with the vast majority of people, and mentioning you run a program on your computer to make cash sounds laughable regardless of reality.

Bitcoin needs a new sales pitch.

Yeah, that seems odd.  Also, I'm just going to go ahead and say that I'm in favor of requiring government issued identification at the exchanges.  I know a lot of people will hate me for that, but it would at least make it more difficult to convert stolen coins into cash and run off.  If you really want coins anonymously there would still be ways to get them.  Just not at the exchanges.

So the guy who is leading the one real exchange (the others are too small in comparison) is spreading trade-sensitive information?

Shady at best...

The price has already fallen 80% from the top, so assuming it's 98% certain it won't fall another 25% is wildly optimistic and naive. Bitcoin is backed by nothing, so there is no particular price point that can be said to be good or bad for buying or selling.

Good point by cbeast.

Here is a very recent IRC-log from just a few minutes ago, from the owner of Mt. Gox:

[14:23:25] <@free'MagicalTux> btw I see that most of the bitcoins we were watching (stolen coins) were sold today
[14:25:26] <@free'MagicalTux> TuxBlackEdo: no, stolen coins from other police reports
[14:25:38] <@free'MagicalTux> however we don't have enough proof to do anything
[14:25:43] <@free'MagicalTux> there is only reports from people

Timestamp is Finnish time. It's an interesting bit of information. Seems that thiefs have been accelerating the sell-off significantly.

Email came out in '71, was that a bad idea too because it took so long to catch on? It takes awhile for new technology to catch on. The public must be educated about bitcoin. I have been online since '83, but did not have WWW access in my region until 1994. It's not that the internet was a bad idea, it just took awhile for it to be available. Bitcoin is nowhere near ready for John Q. Public.

Well, you're a known doomsday-bear so I'm not surprised but I still thank you for the correction. Only a doomsday-bear would think that a below $6.50 price isn't a good buying opportunity. It might not be the perfect opportunity as the price can go lower but it's a good one. As a selling point it's already bad and if we go a bit lower then we reach the point where selling is moronic.

But I wouldn't be surprised if we see selling even at the horrible selling points because that's often the point where the panic sets in. Panic sellers do their thing and then the smartest buyers who had the patience to wait will jump in.

Changed it for you, into a more realistic scenario. You're welcome

Well holding makes sense right now. Or buying, if you still have something to buy with. It's very, very unlikely that price will bottom at below $5. In fact I'd be willing to bet on this if someone wants to

Now I'm interested in seeing if the price will even break $6 which I think is unlikely but possible. Regardless, now we're at a range where buying is a good move and holding is a really good move.

Only a total doomsday-bear would sell at around $6.50 or less, there are no real indicators to show a major price drop from that point unless you're only seeing the very pessimistic scenarios. Anything is possible, but it's really pessimistic thinking.

As a miner, why would I sell if it keeps going even lower (say in the $4, 3, 2 range)?
You will get less than you spent on electricity.

I can understand if investors want to get out, but for miners, selling makes no sense at $6 (and current difficulty).

Of course, $6 would make sense if the difficulty adjusts down drastically.

It's funny to see all the people who have bought bitcoins at aroun $7-8, thinking that would be the low point, are now shouting "holding is smartest! It will go up up up!", even though all the indicators are pointing down. I feel for you people

I think holding is the only thing that makes sense, really.  I had my final, lowest buys in the $7 range, now all filled.

Now's it's time to be patient and see what happens.  I figure I'll hold for 1-3 years, or until price comes back up, whichever comes first. 

A few days ago when bitcoin was down down and heading down from $9 I posted on this forum that I had buys at $7.10.  Well, those were filled today and the price kept heading lower.  Lol.  Time will tell whether it was a smart buy (probably not).

^

Because they realise the price is going to drop much further and would rather disembark from the bitcoin-train-to-0-land now?

Why did someone just put up 2400 coins for sale at $6.80 at Mt. Gox?

I'm with you OP, no selling going on from my wallet!

Well I'm going to sleep in about 5 minutes.  If it jumps while I am asleep, I will be pissed.  I am drinking a lot of water so it will wake me up every few hours to check on Mt. Gox.