Topic: IT STILL ISN'T BACK TO "NORMAL"! - page 2. (Read 5783 times)

Hey guys, I fixed the graph. 

I'm afraid it's really up to mtgox. I personally use alternative exchange just because I know these guys at mtgox are morons.

But does it know a guy who read about it in newspapers, looked up wikipedia.org and fired the money to the mtgox?

It was after BTC was legalized by Fincen. 2-3 days later price jumped 50% in 24h. I remember this because i went in myself.

How the hell is that a bear trap?

Yeah, as an epic failure, if some major community action is not done to make sure this never happens again.

+1. Excellent graph!

Not true at all. I live in Spain and I have to tell you no one even knows here the BTC. The people didn't run into BTC as you suppose. From my point of view, the average spaniard would go into gold I don't think they are open minded enough to go into BTC. Any way, protecting your savings buying BTC looks like a really bad idea.. it's so experimental at this point.

By the way, Spain havent suffered any bail-in yet.

Why don't more people discuss that Cyprus was announced on March 17th when BTC was at $50.  This was when the insane push up happened.  People in Spain and Cyprus were moving money in BTC because they were freaking out.  There were quite a number of news stories that showed this.  Now that those people have sold and moved on they will not be coming back.  I expect $30-$50 BTC by tomorrow and probably some new crazy event in the next year driving up another huge bubble where I will sell off again.

Edit: The drive to $50 was getting out of hand and it was going sideways.  I suspected a downward correction at that time but was prepared to hold it.  The only thing that changed that was March 17th.  I sold at $230 on Tuesday night after the last run-up.  People keep using stock charts to predict a beta currency.  There are other factors than trend lines at work here and a lot of money is either cashed in or lost now.  Don't hold your breath waiting for $200 to come back or you might not make it there.

We are well below the mean now, it appears. Drawing the lines, it should converge to ~120 -that is, double the price now on BitStamp.

I'm no economist, but, wow, it is crazy how those graphs line up almost perfectly.

I can pay 5-10% over for any cash in the exchanges except Gox. Sell your bitcoins now and turn the cash over to me, profit 5-10%!!

Or sell outright. I can pay bank wire any currency, gold, silver any form. PM.

We're at capitulation right now.

With Gox down I feel there's a greater potential for it to grow again given that all the newbies probably haven't moved out to another exchange. Although as soon as it's up it may crash again.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/843/schermata20130411alle18.png

Mark my words, mark them well. It's gonna be sub-40 at BTC-e in the next five hours.

You keep silent for a whole month and now come back with TA again?

Everything is exactly like in the graph. According to BTC-e(gox has halted trading), we're at stage "FEAR" right now.

Updated graph with fresh values.

This needs a little adjustment.

Every fundamental indicator that I know of suggests that Bitcoin adoption is an exponential growth phenomenon. Anyone who disagrees please do us both a favor and STOP READING HERE and instead supply an argument why adoption isn't exponential.

Now, exponentially growing fundamentals strongly suggest that the mean trendline in the graph that the price reverts to should be exponential, not linear (on a log chart: not flat but at a fixed slope).

The log-scale chart Arepo posted just above shows that so far in 2013 the slope was fixed until the Cyprus-inspired media blitz started just a few weeks ago. Since then it has been curling upward, and I have been warning gradually more loudly that this indicates some froth being introduced to the mix with Bitcoin-clueless money piling in, as the fundamental growth has for the most part remained "merely" exponential.

So where are we now? The 2013 Exponential Trendline I mentioned above has the price at around $70 now, to reach $200 (this time solidly) by early June, $2,000 by autumn, and $10,000 by Christmas. Still silly, crazy fast growth.

We are now still floating about 2.5 times above that price, "cruising for a bruising" back down to that trendline in case of any bad news or just random jitters+goxlag.

Under this exponential interpretation of the OP chart, supposing this rebound is actually a "bull trap," if we skid down to "despair" at the end of April the desparation low should be around $30-50 (since the exponential trendline hits $100 at that time), with a mid-May return to the exponential trendline at about $130, this time soaring* higher with plenty of fundamental backing as the weak hands are really going to be shaken out.

*Slower than post-Cyprus but still crazy fast (EXPOMUTHAFUCKINENTIAL).

-===-

can you say 'overbought' ?

+1

We're in pre-bubble mode. The bubble will have five digits.

This week - above $200
This month - New highs
This Year - BTC >$1000