Also, another driver would be Bitstamp failing - this would be worse than any other exchange failing because Bitstamp is integrated with many important services for bitcoin commerce and bitcoin exchanges - it is like a hub.
If none of these things happen, then there will be no mega apocalyptic crash. Though I'm not sure exactly what will happen. Maybe it will continue to follow our bullish trendline. Maybe it'll trade sideways for 22 months.
On the other hand, if serious exchanges start opening in wall street then I expect another huge rally. That is why I am long currently, although I will sell on the right signals.
Topic: It's been three months... (Read 2837 times)
It is possible to consider both rallies in 2013 part of the same "bubble" (remember, everyone was complaining that there was no true final capitulation even for the spring rally, and the fall rally was driven up artificially by China, which hasn't had a real capitulation either). In this case, there needs to be another 2011-like capitulation and another 22 month waiting period before the next bubble.
I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.
I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.
Opinions on the effect of war on the price of bitcoin seem to be polarized. The purpose of war is to shake up power-structures and re-shape institutions, so my opinion is that it would reduce confidence in central-bank controlled money (ruble, hryvnia, euro, dollar), transferring perceived value to gold and, to a less extent, to bitcoin.
The effect of the 750,000 coins allegedly stollen from MtGox strongly depends on when the coins went missing. My opinion is that they went missing in 2011 [https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/peter-r-rizuns-theory-on-the-collapse-of-mtgox-and-its-effect-on-the-price-of-bitcoin-497289] and have already been absorbed by the market. This would be bullish over the medium and long term, as a fraction of MtGox customers repurchase coins. On the other hand, if the coins were stollen recently and will be slowly sold into the market, then this would be bearish for price.
It is possible to consider both rallies in 2013 part of the same "bubble" (remember, everyone was complaining that there was no true final capitulation even for the spring rally, and the fall rally was driven up artificially by China, which hasn't had a real capitulation either). In this case, there needs to be another 2011-like capitulation and another 22 month waiting period before the next bubble.
I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.
I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.
what if chinese are satisfied with current regulation
what if wwIII doesn't happen
what if no one dumps all his coins all at once
what then!
It is possible to consider both rallies in 2013 part of the same "bubble" (remember, everyone was complaining that there was no true final capitulation even for the spring rally, and the fall rally was driven up artificially by China, which hasn't had a real capitulation either). In this case, there needs to be another 2011-like capitulation and another 22 month waiting period before the next bubble.
I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.
I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.
He is right.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
And the next in 3/3 1 month , after that 10 days... one day , and ... one every second?
Everything is fractal. It is known.
*drops more acid*
You are not Just Another Sheep, JustAnotherSheep.
Market cap of bitcoin makes it increasingly harder for pump and dumpers to pump it.
You don't understand market capitalization ? Even mBTC , uBTC or satoshi's can bring the market cap to top level hight's
He is right.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
And the next in 3/3 1 month , after that 10 days... one day , and ... one every second?
Everything is fractal. It is known.
*drops more acid*
He is right.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
And the next in 3/3 1 month , after that 10 days... one day , and ... one every second?
exactly. These are the laws of "it happened one time, so likely it will happen another time"-predictions. Like the prediction, that we grew 3000% the last two years each, so it's like to grow that rate in this year again. Very solid!
He is right.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
And the next in 3/3 1 month , after that 10 days... one day , and ... one every second?
He is right.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month
So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.
But that was the time between the last peaks. We should be on the rise already. Today was not a bad day actually. I just see that from the jag on the 25th of February we are already up almost 50%. OK, from tomorrow on we will officially switch to bubble mode, everybody join the ride and make sure to fasten your seat belts.
Well, have a look at that low back in July 2013, we just had the same one 2-3 weeks ago, and after that bottom the price was sort of stagnant and it really started taking off only at the end of October, which still leaves 3 months from now to wait for the same outcome.
With the recent bad news and weak environment, we should be happy bitcoin is stablising at $600.
IMO Bitcoin is reaching a certain stability which is great for the currency but of course bad news for speculators.
Looks like there is a feeble attempt to reverse trend. (that's an extremely bullish statement for me to express).
No big money going in, but no one ready to dump either = low volume. Interesting.
No big money going in, but no one ready to dump either = low volume. Interesting.
Too much money lost from the gox debacle, only weak hands remain. Big drop imminent.
Also, a lot are still digesting the news that Mark Karpeles manipulated the price to the last ATH, he also manipulated the subsequent downturn. How much interest is there in bitcoin really? We don't know yet. People are just being sensibly cautious.
There's a great theory on the rise of bitcoin and the fall of Gox here, it's the most accurate theory I've seen so far and explains a lot about price movements and the infamous Willy - if you are an investor in bitcoin you should read this....
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/peter-r-rizuns-theory-on-the-collapse-of-mtgox-and-its-effect-on-the-price-of-bitcoin-497289
Cos maybe going by your fractal theory of Bitcoin price evolution we now have to experience another 90% drop as per Jun 2011 - Nov 2011 before Bitcoin can grow again. After we drop down to the $100 range, then the whole cycle is complete? This time around though it will be Nov-Jun, as opposed to Jun-Nov.
[optimistic]A fractal price model could also support one final bubble before a major bear market if the summer 2012 rise is considered too insignificant (or whatever technical justification befits that) to count as a proper wave. [/optimistic]
Look at the gox disaster and there you have your reason for not another bubble.
Although I doubt we would have had one even without the gox bankruptcy.
Although I doubt we would have had one even without the gox bankruptcy.
Too much money lost from the gox debacle, only weak hands remain. Big drop imminent.
If timing markets was that easy, why isn't everyone a millionaire already?
Also, why are you leaving out 2011 in your chart?
Back then there were still lunatics who thought Bitcoin could fail Also, why are you leaving out 2011 in your chart?
...why are we not yet bubbling up again? 
coz if you look at the graph you yourself provided, it takes at least 6 months between bubbling-ups, not 3
which assumption should make June-August period interesting.
...why are we not yet bubbling up again?
coz if you look at the graph you yourself provided, it takes at least 6 months between bubbling-ups, not 3
which assumption should make June-August period interesting.
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