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Topic: Peter R Rizun's theory on the collapse of MtGox and its effect on the price of bitcoin (Read 77117 times)

legendary
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legendary
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diamond-handed zealot
sr. member
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bagholder since 2013
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http://weis2017.econinfosec.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/05/WEIS_2017_paper_21.pdf

Here's an article, titled "Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem" that is inspired by this post and others like it.

It digs into the nitty gritty of willy.
legendary
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Intresting read, but doesn't really tell us much more... It would help if they could find that data gap.

At least know we are starting to get the full picture: a mix of lack of security, fear, and not really knowing what to do with so many Bitcoins on one's control.
sr. member
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ManualMiner
maybe, but are you doing the work?
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www.secondstrade.com - 190% return Binary option
I just read the theory on the collapse. Seems an interesting one. Just has me wondering, why something like this came out after almost 2 years after the hack .
And looking at the blockchain, wouldn't it be possible to trace the coins ?
legendary
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=== NODE IS OK! ==
hero member
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IMO, Mark is a patsy and when he dies of a "heart attack" we will never really know which spooky agency got away with a huge number of BTC.

That might be Mark's little secret.
legendary
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I actually think there is also a possibly that those stolen coins were sold and the fiat profit were used to bid up the price and that the process was rinse and repeat until the energy was all used up.

In essence we have all benefited from that loss, and now we are paying the price.
legendary
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A Great Time to Start Something!
Quote
Shrem also shared his thoughts on what he think really happened at Mt. Gox before it filed for bankruptcy. He explained, “I think he lost those coins early on. Like many years ago in the first hack.” In other words, Shrem believes Karpeles was running a fractional reserve bitcoin exchange for quite some time.

http://insidebitcoins.com/news/while-mt-gox-was-burning-karpeles-was-heading-home-for-the-weekend/29106


IMO, Mark is a patsy and when he dies of a "heart attack" we will never really know which spooky agency got away with a huge number of BTC.
legendary
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Quote
Shrem also shared his thoughts on what he think really happened at Mt. Gox before it filed for bankruptcy. He explained, “I think he lost those coins early on. Like many years ago in the first hack.” In other words, Shrem believes Karpeles was running a fractional reserve bitcoin exchange for quite some time.

http://insidebitcoins.com/news/while-mt-gox-was-burning-karpeles-was-heading-home-for-the-weekend/29106
legendary
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The Reddit version of this thread is cited in the Willy Report (http://willyreport.wordpress.com) so I thought I'd bump it.  Looks like we have more evidence that Willy was real.  
full member
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Interesting theory, but it doesn't jive with all the facts. The rallies correlate very well with Google search activity. If one man or bot was driving these rallies then you would not see the search activity behave in Google the way it has during the rallies. Also without the support of the bot, the market would have severely crashed and stayed down after Mt Gox closed.
Good points.

Why should the bot / THK not simply belong to the part of Gox that binds the exchange to their merchant tools? This would be a simple explanation.

I can't believe Karpeles would leave everybody in the dark for so long, effectively taking any option of finding the hacker via the blockchain from the customers.
full member
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Interesting theory, but it doesn't jive with all the facts. The rallies correlate very well with Google search activity. If one man or bot was driving these rallies then you would not see the search activity behave in Google the way it has during the rallies. Also without the support of the bot, the market would have severely crashed and stayed down after Mt Gox closed. I really enjoyed the intrigue in the theory (not that Bitcoin doesn't already have enough intrigue) and think it would make an excellent movie.

Another reason to doubt the theory is simply to read all the analysis blogs that follow Bitcoins price. Bitcoin market activity tends to follow the rules and trends that a stock/commodity does in general. Moving averages, levels of support based on Standard Deviation, etc. Other than the crash on Mt Gox in 2011, Bitcoin trading seems to follow these statistical rules. The statistical rules that govern market trading behaviour would be violated if one person were manipulating the market to that extent.

Last but not lease other exchanges have also been hacked and BTC have been stolen because of this transaction malleability problem. If this were engineered by Mark K, then other exchanges would not be affected. The theory also assumes that Mark K has the intelligence to pre-plan this all.  Grin
legendary
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(2) What do you make of this theory, that MtGOX sold/used 750 kBTC to settle the 75 M$ CoinLab lawsuit? http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1z8vaq/crowd_detectives_reveal_mt_gox_bitcoin_heist_as/

I don't buy this theory.  If it were true I think we'd have strong evidence that CoinLab actually received $75 million.  And if those coins were sold in May 2013, I expect we'd have seen a much sharper decline in the bitcoin price.  EDIT: and most importantly, if this were the case, Mark would have undeniably been illegally operating an insolvent business--even CoinLab would have known this.  Word would have gotten out sooner.

Apparently the lawsuit is still in progress and is scheduled to be tried in Nov/2014, may drag on to 2018:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5261573

Reply by MtGOX to the lawsuit:
http://numismatics.pwnz.org/coinlab-v-mtgox-answer-complaint/

Reply by CoinLab to MtGOX's reply:
http://thegenesisblock.com/coinlab-files-response-mt-gox-lawsuit/

Lawsuits are often settled out of court, but if that had happened I suppose that we would have known.

However, if MtGOX had settled the lawsuit by handing over 750,000 BTC instead of 75 M$, CoinLab obviously would not denounce him.


Dig around a bit you will see CoinLabs more over Peter Vessenes is no incubator or entrepreneur, the trail of scams and losses, and incompetence following him around is shocking. He screwed over Gox, no question in my mind. Even The Bitcoin Foundation is a way to give legitimacy to his impetus.
legendary
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