It's amazing how people are still trying to convince everyone that just because something is known to happen that it's already priced in. We have also known since 2010 that there were only going to be 21 million bitcoins. So why did it take several years to surpass a meager five billion dollar market cap? Why didn't everyone pile in way back then? Why isn't the halving 4 years from now priced in? We already know it's going to happen lol
You know that's why I'm starting to think that guy is a troll cuz it's too easy to dismantle the dookie he is spewing
In 2010 and 2011, there was much more uncertainty and far less awareness. That is the reason why every coin wasn't bought up and hoarded like my precious. There was also only a few 10 thousands of us here and not everyone was so sure Bitcoin would even survive the 2011 bear market, let alone put every Dollar they owned into some ultra high risk investment. I mined back then on a handful of pc's and was bringing in ~10BTC/day. Difficulty was 100k. There was little confidence of the longevity compared to today. Hell, there was only 6 million coins in existence. You think they should have been worth $1000 back then? Add the 2013 rally's and would you pay ~$45k today? Bitcoin is not worth that yet. In fact, it's only worth what someone is willing to pay, and by the looks of it, no one seems to want to pay anywhere near $500 without some confirmation.
It was also known that it takes 130 years to mine every bit of the 21M Bitcoins.
The
speculative aspect of halving may not be priced in, but the true current utility value likely is (Otherwise, price would be rising consistently if demand was high enough to outpace supply). Depending on how long the speculative hype of halving lasts determines where the resulting pull back lands. That number is an unknown until it happens. The longer it takes, the potentially higher it could be since more users may come aboard and that raises demand.
The next halving is too far away to be of any significance on price right now. I'm no proponent to efficient market hypothesis, but it isn't exactly lagging either. Front runners (especially those who were around for the first halving) cause the rally to happen earlier and unless new money comes in to support, there will be nothing to propel the price higher once they all buy. So you end up with a pre halving rally, and post halving dumps. Speculation is then over and the equilibrium will take time to achieve.