OMG will this asic bullshit ever end?
For the last time: there can be max 3600 btc mined per day. There is about 20k daily volume only on mtgox only in usd market. So even if all miners decided to sell immediately (which is unrealistic) price movement would be very small.
+1
The ASIC market theories don't make any sense. My view is that hoarding might actually increase. I will explain this of course.
The thing is, after ASIC's mining will be something that mostly only people who are really into Bitcoin will be participating in. With GPU's it's very different, I believe there is a good amount of mining still going on by people who simply have a graphics card running and they don't really even understand Bitcoin thus they sell everything they mine. ASIC's require a little more effort and understanding to invest in since they are no good for anything else.
What could happen is that at least the people who have smallish ASIC investments will be hoarding a lot. Big ASIC operations are a different story, they have significant investment and maintaining costs and they have to sell to cover those. However, as I see it based on the preorders, a large majority of ASIC mining power will be very decentralized. It's not going the "big businesses mining everything" route yet at least.
I don't buy the fact that people have invested everything in ASIC's and want to just sell everything to buy more ASIC's. In fact the whole ASIC mining might get over the range of profitability fast. It might be that people are looking more at selling their ASIC's than buying more. The whole ASIC thing, with question marks over delivery times and everything, is a big risk to invest in. Anyone who is all-in on ASIC's is in my opinion a bit stupid.
Also, it's important to take into account that even if people were trying to earn money through mining to invest in new chips fast (this is a possibility if the profitability remains high), they don't necessarily sell! Many ASIC sellers accept bitcoins.
My conclusion is that there is really no reason to expect higher selling rates compared to what we've had before. Also, the selling rate would have to be massively different to have any significant effect since we just had the halving. ASIC's will increase the amount of new coins for a while at some point, but the effect of that will be very temporary. Truth is we're going to be seeing 3600 new coins per day and that's it.
