It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket. - page 3.

Herodes

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Quote from: CombustibleLemon on November 30, 2012, 11:28:12 PM

It seems oddly familiar....big change predicted to be coming...everyone holds their breath and then.......

Something less than the usual.

I keep looking back to last year where everyone expected a HUGE price break after The Goodwife did an entire episode about bitcoin and finding Satoshi. We built for 2-3 months expecting something amazing...and then...nothing. What followed was a 30-40%ish price fall (Had to check numbers since I'm tipsy and prone to fudging)

You may have found a pattern there. If everyone expects the price to go up, but it never does, it either flatlines or decrease, then you can profit from this in your future investments!!!

glub0x

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Quote from: Yuhfhrh on December 01, 2012, 07:18:46 PM

Quote from: Technomage on December 01, 2012, 07:10:27 PM

There have been some very promising developments and news articles and what I like the most, the overall quality and tone of news articles has been improving significantly. People are getting more interested and people who dismissed it before are taking a second look. Bitcoin adoption has had a lot of rejection for many reasons but that is changing. Personally I feel we're getting close to an explosion that will surpass June 2011. That seemed far-fetched to me some time ago but right now I actually believe it's possible.

What we're seeing now is somewhat similar to the period of stability in early 2012. We were around the $5 area for a long time. Now we've been between $8 and $15 for a long time and recently between $10 and $12 specifically. Within a few months I believe we could be seeing a massive breakout. Of course I could be dead wrong but this is just my honest feeling at the moment.

You're not alone in your thinking Wink

opening my online news website i got this

More fuel, then look at the direction of the rocket!

Yuhfhrh

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Quote from: Technomage on December 01, 2012, 07:10:27 PM

There have been some very promising developments and news articles and what I like the most, the overall quality and tone of news articles has been improving significantly. People are getting more interested and people who dismissed it before are taking a second look. Bitcoin adoption has had a lot of rejection for many reasons but that is changing. Personally I feel we're getting close to an explosion that will surpass June 2011. That seemed far-fetched to me some time ago but right now I actually believe it's possible.

What we're seeing now is somewhat similar to the period of stability in early 2012. We were around the $5 area for a long time. Now we've been between $8 and $15 for a long time and recently between $10 and $12 specifically. Within a few months I believe we could be seeing a massive breakout. Of course I could be dead wrong but this is just my honest feeling at the moment.

You're not alone in your thinking Wink

Technomage

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Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

There have been some very promising developments and news articles and what I like the most, the overall quality and tone of news articles has been improving significantly. People are getting more interested and people who dismissed it before are taking a second look. Bitcoin adoption has had a lot of rejection for many reasons but that is changing. Personally I feel we're getting close to an explosion that will surpass June 2011. That seemed far-fetched to me some time ago but right now I actually believe it's possible.

What we're seeing now is somewhat similar to the period of stability in early 2012. We were around the $5 area for a long time. Now we've been between $8 and $15 for a long time and recently between $10 and $12 specifically. Within a few months I believe we could be seeing a massive breakout. Of course I could be dead wrong but this is just my honest feeling at the moment.

Kupsi

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

Quote from: smoothie on December 01, 2012, 06:15:15 PM

Right now is not the time to buy bitcoin. Most developments and news has been priced in.

New people discover Bitcoin every day...

Yuhfhrh

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Quote from: gmiwenht on December 01, 2012, 06:24:15 PM

It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

Its definitely not time to sell. People hearing about bitcoin from wordpress/halving should soon have some cash flowing in. On another note, google trends is still doing well:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2012%2012m&cmpt=q

gmiwenht

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It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: gmiwenht on December 01, 2012, 06:13:02 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on December 01, 2012, 11:57:06 AM

I'll throw in my 2 cents.

I think a good model of the bitcoin price is like a ticking bomb. Any day, we might hear that Reddit will accept bitcoins, or some other big business that BitPay is quietly working out a deal with. Or similarly that some very wealthy investor decides to take a chance and buy $500,000 USD of bitcoin.

I for one, would like to see more indicators that track various aspects of the "network effect" (not saying there aren't any right now).

I think that is how a lot of people feel. The "right" thing to do is to buy in and just forget about the market. Come back in a year and reap your rewards. But that is investment, and we all know that bitcoin is a good investment. But as speculators, we can't help but be myopic about the short term. What if my $11 buy in turns to $5. Then I will be sad for 6 months. Sad

Should I just sell at $13 and hope it falls to $10 soon? blah blah blah

I'm going to do what Billionaire Jim Rogers says he does "I wait until all I have to do is go over there and pick up the money (easy). Until then I do nothing."

Once opportunity presents itself you will know. Until then, do nothing.

Right now is not the time to buy bitcoin. Most developments and news has been priced in.

Just my input though...

gmiwenht

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[deleted]

enquirer

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Quote from: CombustibleLemon on December 01, 2012, 12:13:49 AM

Since when are human reactions and game theory random?

They are based off of small set of initial conditions and a similar set of possible reacting conditions. Far from random there are like what 5 starting positions and 5 possible ending positions(Same, better, much better, worse, much worse)? It is the very definition of NOT random. It's exactly 25 possible iterations of beginning and ending conditions.

I'm correlating to a specific, similar event from approximately last year to a specific similar event from approximately this coming year. It's not random, it's SIMILAR.

The fallacy here is that there are numerous other CombustibleLemons who follow the same naive logic.
Then there are CombustibleOranges who try to predict what CombustibleLemons will be doing.
Then there are supercomputers which try to outsmart both oranges and lemons.
Asymptotically, it is completely unpredictable mess = random.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: trogdorjw73 on December 01, 2012, 06:03:31 AM

A bunch of people are holding BTC waiting for someone else to think, "OMG, the block reward just got halved! I should buy a ton of Bitcoins and hoard them, pushing the price up to $20+." Which of course isn't going to happen any time soon. Plus, people are still waiting for ASICs, which also aren't going to happen any time soon. So instead, everyone holds their breath, the holidays come and go, and we're basically staying the same.

THIS ^....

The play here is obvious. We know what 90% of people want to do with btc who read this forum.

salfter

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Quote from: legitnick on December 01, 2012, 05:53:09 AM

Price goes up, price goes down. You can't explain that!

Markets...how do they work? Grin

kokojie

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The halving has been priced in since about 5 months ago. It's only normal that the price does not swing wildly due to halving.

The wordpress news did lift the price up over 10%.

Yuhfhrh

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Quote from: chriswilmer on December 01, 2012, 11:57:06 AM

I'll throw in my 2 cents.

I think a good model of the bitcoin price is like a ticking bomb. Any day, we might hear that Reddit will accept bitcoins, or some other big business that BitPay is quietly working out a deal with. Or similarly that some very wealthy investor decides to take a chance and buy $500,000 USD of bitcoin.

I for one, would like to see more indicators that track various aspects of the "network effect" (not saying there aren't any right now).

I agree with you completely. Most of us know bitcoins are going to be worth more than $12.50 in the future, we just don't know when or if they will drop down to $5 again beforehand. Very much a ticking time bomb.

chriswilmer

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I'll throw in my 2 cents.

I think a good model of the bitcoin price is like a ticking bomb. Any day, we might hear that Reddit will accept bitcoins, or some other big business that BitPay is quietly working out a deal with. Or similarly that some very wealthy investor decides to take a chance and buy $500,000 USD of bitcoin.

I for one, would like to see more indicators that track various aspects of the "network effect" (not saying there aren't any right now).

SlaveInDebt

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Your Minion

Quote from: trogdorjw73 on December 01, 2012, 06:03:31 AM

A bunch of people are holding BTC waiting for someone else to think, "OMG, the block reward just got halved! I should buy a ton of Bitcoins and hoard them, pushing the price up to $20+." Which of course isn't going to happen any time soon. Plus, people are still waiting for ASICs, which also aren't going to happen any time soon. So instead, everyone holds their breath, the holidays come and go, and we're basically staying the same.

I concur.

trogdorjw73

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A bunch of people are holding BTC waiting for someone else to think, "OMG, the block reward just got halved! I should buy a ton of Bitcoins and hoard them, pushing the price up to $20+." Which of course isn't going to happen any time soon. Plus, people are still waiting for ASICs, which also aren't going to happen any time soon. So instead, everyone holds their breath, the holidays come and go, and we're basically staying the same.

legitnick

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